Ms Share Discussion Threads

[cockneyrebel] 05/10/2005 11:46

results in 6 weeks, break out, low single digit forward PE, pension surplus, director buying, cracking orders....I'm not selling for some time yet myself.

CR

[xdavid] 05/10/2005 11:39

Oooops, missed posting another "oooohhhh" this morning :-)
My attention taken up elsewhere - red across the screen! 8-0
Do I take profit or will it all bounce tomorrow? That eternal question!

[EDIT] NOT selling MSI !!!! The question is do I take profit on some oils and miners I have, before they drop further through others doing same?

(sorry for confusion !)

[leopold555] 05/10/2005 10:08

CR LOL! I have gone goggle eyed looking at the charts for this, ITM and BDI :-)

[cockneyrebel] 05/10/2005 10:04

Breakout this morning - new high - breakouts in this stock tend to rather exciting - look at the past chart :-)

CR

[leopold555] 05/10/2005 10:01

Can we expect a tree shake pretty soon so that MMs can get stock?

Leo

[rivaldo] 05/10/2005 09:54

Nice start on a pretty downbeat day - 3.5p up on 2k shares bought presumably means there's still no shares around. Further delayed trades to be reported maybe too.

[rivaldo] 04/10/2005 22:39

Good on ya CR - from the chart am I correct in seeing (just!) a breakout?

The director buying and share shifting just before the closed period should see the price a lot higher imo too. Even assuming only 15p EPS this year at a P/E of 10, which allows hardly any growth given the impact of the share buy-backs, would give a price of 150p. I'm hoping for significantly more than that though - say, 17p EPS at a P/E of 12 for 204p by the year end.

[cockneyrebel] 04/10/2005 19:33

I can't believe how tough it was to buy 4K today - having to pay a 2p premium on that small amount is unheared of in this one in the last 18 months I've held this stock. There can't be any stock around imo.

With the company buying stock and director buying too it feels very positive imo.

If we get the buyers showing up before the results as I suspect, and stock is this short then we're in for a sharp squeeze north imo.

CR

[leopold555] 04/10/2005 13:01

Drat I knew I should have bought more :-(

[cockneyrebel] 04/10/2005 11:49

just had to pay 2p premium for 4K - there is no stock at all :-)

CR

[xdavid] 04/10/2005 11:48

oooohhhhh..... :-)

[cockneyrebel] 03/10/2005 19:05

Was off line today - nice to see a director buy, even if small.

Agree with your thought Rivaldo

CR

[xdavid] 03/10/2005 18:32

I know some other (equally illiquid) companies where the buybacks are made from the directors own holding so it's nice to see one where the director is buying on top of a buy back !! Also sends out a message that even though the director has made a considerable capital gain on his 19% holding (mostly bought at 30p if I remember correctly) that he is more interested in buying more than selling any for profit.

Wonder if today is the start of another one of those MSI jumps up...? :-)

[rivaldo] 03/10/2005 18:11

The timing of the director buy is interesting though, coming near the end of the reporting period -and more importantly, right at the start (edited!) of the closed period, i.e around 2 months before the likely results reporting date. If that's not a signal of some sort then I don't know what is!

[xdavid] 03/10/2005 17:35

mmm... 50k share buyback... from its own pension fund...




Not sure how I like the company's own pension fund owning 1.8m shares in itself. Although it obviously has performed well for it :-)

PLUS...

Director buys 5000 @ 1.22 :-) Although only a small addition to his 19% holding...

[xdavid] 03/10/2005 16:22

Review of stats at 121p price...

2005 (to y.e. April 2005)
Eps: 12.7p
PE: 9.5
PEG: 0.06
P/TNAV: 1.6
Divi yld: 1.6%
Net cash p/s: 4.2p

So almost half way through year and on historic PE of 9.5 (almost 9 if you strip out the net cash of 4.2p)

2006 Forecast: we'll see in November how well they are doing after last year's 154% eps growth. But just for demonstration purposes, lets plug in a 26% growth for round 16p eps. This looks like a fairly achievable target for them.

2006 (estimate y.e. April 2006)
Eps: 16.0p
PE: 7.6
PEG: 0.29 (growth 26%)
P/TNAV: 1.3
Divi yld: 2.1%
Net cash p/s: 6.4p

Assumptions: 15.5m shares, down from 2005 18m average. According to my notes, this is correct after the buybacks but it might need checked (seems v low looking at it now). Cash: 1m, up from 2005 0.75. Actually it may be higher than this but I have presumed they have maintained investment spend. Divi: same increase as 2005.

All in all, still a good buy in my eyes. Roll on November!

[leopold555] 03/10/2005 15:54

LOL! yes good company, well run with full order books. Lots of expansion on the horizon.

Thanks for bringing it to my attention :-)

Leo

[rivaldo] 03/10/2005 15:11

L555, I presume that means you've now done more research and like what you see!

Since around the last interims MSI have bought in around 2.1m shares, or over 10% of the current shares in issue, so last time's H1 5p EPS will get an automatic improvement from that if nothing else. Given that there was no AGM statement we can also assume that trading is on track from the optimistic conclusion at the last full results:

"The payback, ensuing from capital invested over recent years in both our plant
and equipment and research and development programmes, should continue to
strengthen our trading position. Recognising that the future prosperity of our
Company depends critically on technological and innovative investment, we
propose to direct further capital into these areas in the current year.

The Group order book remains healthy, well balanced and aligned with the
established patterns associated within the individual businesses.

As a result, we are cautiously optimistic that the markets that we serve will
remain strong throughout the remainder of this calendar year. Naturally, we
remain vigilant to detect any change in the position but currently these markets are not indicating any signs of the slowdown in activity being reported in many other industrial activities."

[leopold555] 03/10/2005 14:43

I might add a few if the opportuniy arises Rivaldo. Nice steady investment for me this share

Leo

[rivaldo] 03/10/2005 14:17

Nice to see some buying today remembering that interims are now only a month and a half away (last year's were 23rd November). Four buys of 2,500 shares each today suggests someone wants to quietly build a little stake.

[leopold555] 24/9/2005 12:17

I am confident but I need to do more research this weekend into MSI. I admit I went into it with haste and didn't really research it

Leo

[graham_brown1] 23/9/2005 20:33

Well I wouldn't say no!
Anyway up 8p 6.96% on Thursday but no trades today?

[leopold555] 23/9/2005 07:54

Sorry you hope Rita will go down on you?

[graham_brown1] 22/9/2005 23:41

Hoping Rita was going to give me a down day to buy these but up nearly 7% doh!

[leopold555] 19/9/2005 15:53

Sorry got to go BFC :-)))))))