Ms Share Discussion Threads

[cambium] 16/9/2005 08:13

Are you going to phone them or shall I. This has got to have a fundamental effect on the share price Rivaldo, many thanks for the find

[rivaldo] 12/9/2005 10:33

Yep :o)) And it seems others are reading the news too....

[cockneyrebel] 11/9/2005 12:50

cheers Rivaldo - these look even cheaper don't they :-)

CR

[rivaldo] 11/9/2005 12:40

More good unannounced news from May 2005. The year to April 2006 is looking very good indeed:


"ADI will supply the main gun systems for the larger ships in New Zealand's Project Protector, following the signing of a contract with Tenix
Defence Pty Ltd, the program's lead contractor. The new gun systems will be fi tted to a multi-role ship and two offshore patrol boats.

Four inshore patrol craft are also being provided under Project Protector. All will be progressively delivered in 2006 and 2007. Selected systems are the MSI DS 25M developed by MSI-Defence Systems, UK. These systems feature a modern, modular design that enables a smaller calibre gun system to be
configured in virtually any format from manned, with basic sighting, to full autonomous control by a ship's systems or control at a remote station.

The versions for New Zealand will also incorporate the ATK 25mm M242 Bushmaster
cannon, common to the New Zealand Army's light armoured vehicles, giving the Royal New Zealand Navy commonality of ammunition, cannon training and support.
'Although Tenix tendered the MSI gun in its baseline offer to New Zealand's Ministry of Defence, there was still fi erce competition for
this particular contract and we had to work hard and be fl exible to secure it,' said Neville Humphry, defence products sales manager, Land – Engineering and Vehicles.

'We already have a through life support agreement with MSI in respect to the gun systems fi tted to the ADI built HUON Class minehunters and will also be involved in supporting three systems, which have been purchased by the Philippines Navy. This latest contract will strengthen ADI's capability, leading to improved effi ciencies in our in service support along with better customer service,' Neville said.

'ADI considers the MSI modular gun system is the best in the world. It is very well designed and very robust, while maintaining a lightweight footprint. The system is capable of withstanding pounding from heavy seas and green water
exposure, while continuing to deliver the best reliability and availability of the systems currently available in the market,' he said.

MSI systems are fitted to all major Royal Navy platforms and are also in service with 40 other navies."

[rivaldo] 10/9/2005 19:29

I've just been sent the following news alert:

"Jane's Defence Weekly Latest Articles
MSI-Defence Systems is to supply its DS30M Mk 2 automated 30 mm gun for retrofit aboard Royal Navy Type 23 frigates * The ... 07-Sep-2005 ..."

I'm not a subscriber to Jane's, and my knowledge of prices of 30mm guns isn't quite as detailed as of the glorious history of Leyton Orient.

But I imagine a new order like this must be worth a fair bit? Has to be good news anyway.

[rivaldo] 06/9/2005 14:54

Yes - I posted earlier that the AIM discussion could be a cunning ploy to buy in some cheap shares...

I assume there's some delayed buys still to be reported. There was more press today about garages having to change their pumps and signage to accommodate £1 per litre price signs - perhaps the penny is dropping about MSI's garage forecourt business.

[cockneyrebel] 06/9/2005 11:42

oops - too late :-)

As I was saying, when this moves up it moves up :-)

CR

[cockneyrebel] 06/9/2005 11:41

bid up 2p, very nice spread - suspect this will prove irresistable to some

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/9/2005 15:28

I suspect that's why pretty decent buying hasn't moved it much just lately.

One other thing - the company does share buybacks so if the AIM punters want out they will probably find a ready buyer in MSI.

I think most of the AIM thing is in the price at this level, might be wrong by a penny or two but doubt it's much more than that.

CR

[mykai] 05/9/2005 15:21

rivaldo left a message for you on compel board

[doubleorquits] 05/9/2005 11:23

Difficult to measure the impact Rivaldo but I can only use DTG and FIO as comparatives. DTG suffered in a bigger way because by entering the SMX tracker funds were also committed to the stock which once it announced the move to AIM sold. Add to the that the larger mkt cap would imply that there were also more ISA holders. So 35% fall attributed for the most part IMO to the move (and the surprise element).

FIO is probably a better comparative to MSI because of market size. Remember the falls are probably magnified in smalling shares as well because of their relative illiquidity as well. I did successfully short FIO from 42p (I am not short on MSI because I believe there are good fundamentals underpinning it) and if you look at the chart it fell at one point to below mid-thirties. To me this suggests that there could be an excellent buying opp in MSI IF they announce a move to AIM. Equally if they came out now with the definitive NO to AIM one blink and that opportunity present at the moment will disappear rather quickly. Like most of you here (all of you?) there looks to be plenty of upside with this one but there may be a better buying time than this sometime in the near future.

[rivaldo] 04/9/2005 22:55

Perhaps MSI intend to take advantage of the current dip and buy back more shares?! So the AIM move comments are simply a cunning stunt....

I agree it's created some uncertainty and the company should resolve it, but I disagree that it's much of a problem. Can there really be many people with a small company like MSI in their ISA or PEP? I suspect most of those who do are the few who post or lurk here or on T.M.F. And even if any move is announced there will still be probably three months to move the shares if necessary.

In the end another tip or a small bit of institutional interest, or gossip like today's about more work for Global-MSI should be enough to get things moving.

[penpont] 04/9/2005 22:26

Agree with you absolutely doq. I certainly have not sold my ISA shares and won't do so unless I'm forced to. I may even keep them if they do transfer out as increasingly I can find few real growth opportunities on the main market, and feel the tax breaks on Aim plus the greater growth potential make up for any ISA benefits.

And while being as aware as everyone as to the value evident here, I do think it's slightly remiss of the company to leave the market guessing like this.

Among the by now many companies that have moved to Aim recently I can't recall any other which has made a non-definitive statement of this kind. I wonder if in part it's the absence of a housebroker to advise them on matters like this???

Some may consider me churlish to complain about an investment that's done well for me and which I have every intention of holding, but really I would just like as much transparency as possible about the company's future plans.

I suppose the one advantage is that the suppressant effect on the shareprice price may offer a good top up opportunity when they do resolve matters.

[doubleorquits] 04/9/2005 21:58

I think the AIM move idea is creating a temporary problem. It is possibly holding new investors back from buying if, as with me, they have ISA funds more readily available than non-ISA funds, and also I would find it unlikely that anyone holding would have transferred already because of the tax liabilities they would incur over an issue that is still not a definite starter. If the company decide against the move are they all going to move them back again?

The company really needs to give an emphatic yes or no to remove the uncertainty. Until then it is quite possible that the price could tread water or drip downwards. The market dislikes uncertainty of any type.

[cambium] 04/9/2005 20:09

CR,

a little flat run then wallop

LOL

[rivaldo] 04/9/2005 19:25

Agreed. Anyone who did have shares in an ISA has probably moved them out by now, though with the small free float I doubt if the amounts involved are material. And as penpont says, when I spoke to the FD recently they hadn't even thought about it yet, which means there's still probably 3 months to do something about it anyway - though I noticed recently that another company had decided to stay on the main market as new AIM rules had made it less beneficial and more expensive to move.

With interims to 31/10/05 due in November the MSI share price should be due a nice run-up soon. The interims to April'05 will benefit automatically from all the share buybacks, and with the optimistic outlook they should be substantially better than last year's 5p EPS. The shares are still ridiculously cheap imo, especially if BP and Shell are about to spend millions upgrading petrol pumps and their surrounds!

[cockneyrebel] 04/9/2005 12:11

yes penpont - but I think an AIM move is priced in now the company has touted it - much like ALT - they said they were thinking about it then they were doing in, then it would be done by....

If you look at the RSI it's looking oversold. I think AIM is priced in and more just as was the case with ALT which hasn't moved down at all since the decission was taken, in fact it's risen a lot since.

MSI had 100%+ growth last year, this year earnings up 150%. Where do you find growth like this on any PE?

With share buy backs eps will be boosted another 7% this year alone, I'm expecting at least 50% earnings growth on top of that - 16-17p eps this year imo. PE 6.5 or less?

It's a trait of this one that it dips. has a little flat run then wallop, up like a shot when you don't expect it.

CR

[penpont] 04/9/2005 11:07

Thanks for the info and views rivaldo and CR.

On another topic, does anyone think it's not helping MSI's share price for the company to be sitting on the fence re. the move to AIM?

I find it quite strange that they announced they were 'considering' this with the last results but yet in your contact with them rivaldo it seems this might just be a passing thought!

It makes an obvious difference to both retail and institutional investors who can be restricted regarding holding and buying decisions depending on the market status of the shares in question.

In many ways I'd have preferred if they'd just said nothing until a firm decison was reached.

[cockneyrebel] 04/9/2005 10:47

Yes Rivaldo, should be some nice spin off work at the very least. I also think a lot of the oil companioes will be upgrading their sites while the going is goo too. Oil companies are likely to be hit with winfall taxes from Brown and they re likely to want to offset that by investing more in infrastructure and reduce the headline winfalls imo.

CR

[rivaldo] 04/9/2005 10:02

Lots of new work for MSI? From Global MSI's web site they're the "sole contracted canopy partners for Shell, Esso and Jet throughout Europe", a leading partner of BP in forecourt structures and they manufacture petrol pump islands and cradles.

So from today's Sunday Times - note that the article is about Shell and BP:


"September 04, 2005

Big oil groups prime pumps for £1 a litre
Dan Box and Dominic Rushe

THE oil giants Royal Dutch Shell and BP are to spend millions upgrading their petrol pumps and station forecourts to allow them to charge higher prices.
The companies, which last year reported combined pre-tax profits of £30 billion, are set to raise their prices, with a litre of unleaded petrol threatening to exceed £1 in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.

Industry sources estimate that up to 70% of the country's pumps are unable to display figures higher than 99.99p a litre. Retailers said the wholesale price of petrol charged by their suppliers rose last week and more increases are on the way, making £1 a litre inevitable.

"Even as recently as 12 months ago we weren't anticipating prices at this level," said a spokesman for BP. "The two issues are the pumps and the signs outside and, clearly, some work will be required to both."

Shell said: "We are looking at the issue and considering all the options." Between them, BP and Shell control 2,300 of the UK's 10,000 petrol stations."

[cockneyrebel] 02/9/2005 11:17

15K broker buy - interesting - a nice director buy would get these going again imo

CR

[cockneyrebel] 23/8/2005 19:01

Hasn't done ALT any harm, that's not yet on AIM yet the shareprice is rocketing - it's the valuation that matters at the end of the day imo - most can live with the move and the bulk of the shares are not in ISA's. Most would simply transfer the stock from their ISA to non ISA with it this cheap imo.

CR

[rivaldo] 23/8/2005 18:56

Excellent post on MSI over at T.M.F:



IMO the AIM effect is being overplayed. Some will already have panicked and sold. The free float is small, so I'm not sure there's actually a meaningful amount being held in ISAs and PEPs. And the FD told me that the AIM move hadn't even been discussed yet, so there's many months before anyone actually has to do anything about it. Plus the FD confirmed that it may not happen anyway!

Finally, the interims will be out in November, which should give a boost to the shares long before anyone does have to move their shares out of ISAs. Given the big share buybacks H1 EPS should be pretty good...

[johnrxx99] 23/8/2005 12:43

Thanks CR.