Melrose Industries Share Discussion Threads

[minerve] 07/8/2018 20:23

“There are two times in a man's life when he should not speculate: when he can't afford it, and when he can.”

― Mark Twain

[brexitplus] 07/8/2018 18:22

Hi Yertiz

Quite right. I knocked off the post between coats of Rock Salt. Had to remove my cravat to stop paint spots. Ruins the gold and powder blue colours.

[yertiz] 07/8/2018 17:39

Er, think you'll find those were MY picks? Whatever, they haven't done too badly, have they?

[brexitplus] 07/8/2018 15:50

As far as I can see, Losos picks over 5 years

NMC. : plus 1200%
Plus500. Plus 2000%
Melrose. Plus 297% plus 305p returned capital

Hmmm, I’d swap my blazer and cravat for that. And Panama and brogues.

Ps. Forgot my cigarette holder.

[meanwhile] 07/8/2018 15:03

The sage pronounces, the world listens.

What about a list of 'key aspects' of your life, successes, failures, aspirations, from 1970 to the present date?
I think about thirty would be enough.

[brexitplus] 07/8/2018 13:15

Hi Losos

I hope you realise that you shouldn’t be invested in these volatile and dangerous companies at your age. Better to be in good solid British engineering companies, like

Rolls Royce. Minus 9% over 5 years
BAE. Plus 38% “
Senior. Plus 6%
Drax. Minus 45%
Cobham. Minus 41%
GKN before Melrose made its bid. Minus ?
Etc, etc

You know it makes sense.

[losos] 07/8/2018 12:15

B+ - "Knew all about Eastenders though" You have to laugh else you would cry, by the way what's Eastenders? (Just kidding)

Thanks for the 'key aspects' list, let us hope it's all positive. I am pretty much where I want to be with MRO (8% of overall p/folio) Expecting a nice divi from NG. latter this month so might move MRO up to around 10% which is where most of mine are. Still thinking about that.

getting richslow - "We all have different approaches and reasons for investing"

Absolutely right, how can one expect all the myriad of people (with all their different backgrounds) to have a common investment method. Your aims and objectives are undoubtedly different to mine partly because (I'm guessing) you are younger (Well you must be 'cos there ain't no one older than me on here haha)

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 18:54

Getting. Agreed.

Could I, or would I want to, sit reading contract terms, EU regulations, etc. I have much more important things to do.

Rain at the weekend so outdoor decorating to do!!!

[gettingrichslow] 06/8/2018 17:55

B+,
"Unfortunately you seem to expect everyone here to invest as you do. Why? We all have different approaches and reasons for investing"

Quite right! Everyone's different and everyone has different drivers. You would have thought that was fairly obvious, but obviously not...

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 15:58

Hi Losos

Agree totally. I once taught someone who showed me his degree certificate from Luton University. He couldn’t put a sentence together and numeracy was appalling. Media studies!!! Knew all about Eastenders though.

Key aspects of September will be

1 GKN performance and strategy

2 Details of GKN Powder Metallurgy “sale” and others parts , eg. wheels.

3 Progress of Ergotron sale

4 Nortek performance. I don’t expect sale for a while yet.

5 Director remuneration.

If all are positive I expect a step jump in share price

[losos] 06/8/2018 15:44

B+ - "Keep Casey and Lara cool. Lucky you don’t live in Portugal."

Yes we are doing the best we can, we don't have air conditioning at home (This is a once in a decade or more heatwave after all) Fans are going in almost every room.

Have missed a few days on this board, the university debate made me smile, there have always been good unis and not so good ones but what about all those technical and art colleges that suddenly became 'universities' overnight, enabling certain students to proudly announce (On TV game shows and such) I am doing media studies and social awareness at XXX university haha.

MRO share price will (I am sure) just tread water until the September announcement, then we'll see what the market really thinks, keep up the 'discussions' chaps, got to have a laugh sometimes.

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 15:44

Interesting view from Sharecast

“Sharecast News) - Since April, UK equities have outperformed euro area stocks by around 3% and global stocks by around 1%, but with oil prices felt to have peaked and shares looking "overbought", Credit Suisse strategists have downgraded their stance.
The Swiss bank downgraded its stance on UK equities to 'benchmark' from 'overweight', having upgraded at the end of April, and picked out a handful of stocks that have expensive valuations, negative earnings revisions and are rated 'underperform', namely Croda, Meggit, Intertek, Rotork, and Hargreaves Lansdown.

Part of the downgrade stemmed from the prediction that sterling is likely to remain supported as Britain will be able to achieve "relatively soft Brexit". The pound is "circa 20% cheap" versus the dollar and, with UK GDP growth outlook seeming to be stabilising, the strategists noted that sterling speculators are short and that "UK equities have done better than the weakness of sterling would have suggested since our upgrade".

The strategists have also taken a more cautious view on commodities, which represents around a quarter of the FTSE 100 market cap. They note that UK equities tend to outperform as the oil price rises but declared that "oil has peaked" and that, furthermore, Chinese money supply data "is consistent with much weaker commodity prices".

"The UK market is now overbought: The equity market underperforms 70% of the time this happens."

However, there were some UK stocks that were screened positively as cheap, with positive earnings revisions and rated 'outperform' are Ashtead, BP, Imperial Brands and ITV.”

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 15:40

Getting. Me too. I have money I can afford to lose, although I like to win.

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 15:38

Minerve, unfortunately you seem to expect everyone here to invest as you do. Why? We all have different approaches and reasons for investing.

Just look at the best funds and investment trusts available (I exclude closet index trackers). From income to technology, infrastructure to European frontier, commodities to private equity, Japan to emerging markets. I haven’t come across one yet invests only in British engineering companies. If there was it would have performed pretty badly over the last 5 years. All have investors of all ages who have differing interests and degrees of risk tolerance.

[gettingrichslow] 06/8/2018 15:35

Minerve, it's nice to have a reasonable discussion with you (I mean that sincerely). You make some good points (which is why it is such a shame you spend most your time calling people names etc - such a waste of time). I'll answer you directly. As I've said before I've been investing a long time. Started very young. Like a lot of us on here I suspect, I've lost a load at times, but made a good deal more at other times. I enjoy a risky investment. That should explain why I'm 'looking for a stellar return'. Especially one where I'm reasonably confident the upside outweighs the downside. I'm surprised you say 'not losing money is the priority' - it's not for me at all - i can cope with losing. I also have many other investments outside what I do with shares so I'm diversified in that sense too.

[sogoesit] 06/8/2018 14:40

Gambling is in another space in my view.
It seems to be innate in human nature and addictive so, potentially, a profitable investment. (I have GVC in this space).
(There can be fine lines between taking risk, speculation and gambling but if it quacks it’s probably a duck!)

[minerve] 06/8/2018 14:28

brexit

His comments place him around 50 onwards. There is a huge difference between risk where we all gain from it and risk that will only ever be an eventual liability. Spreadbetting and CFDs are in the latter group.

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 14:24

Getting, how old are you? I don’t remember you having ever told us.

Actually, I don’t think it really matters. Some people are very risk averse and some like risk. Where would the U.K. be today if there weren’t many people taking huge risks from the 1600s onwards.

[minerve] 06/8/2018 14:16

getting

Most people who walk into a casino are not taking their life savings with them and generally expect to lose to the house. They it do it infrequently - on holidays and weekends. Spread-betters and CFD traders generally expect to gain and are playing with life savings everyday. I never said that the market will die. Most likely growth will slow and then the companies will need to invest to gain market share to keep the profit story going. This, coupled with regulation will see a correction in future valuation as investment uncertainty increases. What I say is my own view - obviously - and what I say might not happen, but it is a reasonable risk that one shouldn't take if you are not in a position to replace the wealth quickly enough. I run my own savings and I don't need stellar returns. Not losing money is the priority. If you are in your 50s/60s you need to ask yourself why you feel the need to look for stellar return. Risk and return are well-correlated. Personally, for someone your age, you have either not saved enough or an investment like PLUS 500 isn't suitable unless, like Brexit, it is a very small part of your portfolio.

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 14:09

Getting, agreed but I am happy with my three smaller pics, Burford, Melrose and Syncona.

Burford in particular as it will make money in any circumstances; even in a recession litigation doesn’t stop. It’s market is very large and growing.

Melrose we all know about.

And Syncona is a bioscience company structured in a way that minimises the downside while it maximises the upside.

All are like private equity, although different, so the share price of all three will move with large individual transactions, and three have strong historic performances with the same team as now.

On the other hand, I have a large pile of cash waiting for any correction, whenever that may be. I’m not in a hurry

[gettingrichslow] 06/8/2018 13:56

B+, the regulatory 'crackdown' has been on the agenda for ages and will be well baked in - probably over-baked in.

M, yes that 90% stat sounds about right but the rest doesn't follow. Most people who walk into a casino lose everything they've staked by the end of the night but they're still in business. 9 out of 10 new businesses fail inside a year etc etc. Yes, regulators will place some restrictions but that won't stop the general trend.

[minerve] 06/8/2018 13:09

There is some statistic that references spread-betting/CFDs where most (like 90% or something) lose all their money within 3 months. If I come across it, i'll post it here. Clearly this is unsustainable long-term. As pension freedoms increase the government will get concerned about a generation losing their financial freedom and becoming dependent on the state. It is only a matter of time (IMO) where regulation will be stepped-up in the developed world. Plus 500 is having its day but it carries significant risk of losing just as much money as it makes you. A bit like Bitcoin.

Good luck, but it isn't for me. Burford much better investment for sure.

[brexitplus] 06/8/2018 13:00

Yertiz, I agree. Just not for me - yet!!!!

IG downgraded by Shore Capital today and down 3%.

I didn’t much like the following from IG in July

“IG's business this year will be affected by a crackdown by the EU and UK on contracts for difference, IG's main product, which allow traders to place big bets with small upfront stakes. Regulators are seeking to protect inexperienced traders from racking up big losses.”

Happily Burford up 3.7% at present, ie 1pm. Will probably lose it all by 4.30!!! Such is life.

[yertiz] 06/8/2018 12:51

GRS - Plus 500 could be anywhere north of today's price by Xmas. I think this has huge potential still in comparison to its peers (IG etc) and still only on a PE of 4.5.

Plus is breaking out because of other factors, record number of new and professional traders on board, joining the Full List, excellent dividend (despite the 25% trimming by the Israelis).

My thoughts are by end of year this could be close to £30 mark.

The music is still playing, an upbeat number, loud and clear.