If this was a good company 3 working days ago then it is still a good company now. Some figures may have changed a bit but they would anyway.
I hold many thousands of these and have no intention of selling in the near future. |
started to nibble on mro when the volume spiked. us inflation, tariffs us recession risk all playing there part here as has been mentioned but if the fwd cashflows are to be met its now in a decent area imo. tech sup begins from near 4 quid down to 350 but youve now got that volume spike to play off as well. if they go go flat today youll have a dragonfly doji. |
 Looks like some bottom picking attempts and short covering down here bookbroker, but it is so difficult to trade from one headline to the next on tariffs - when you just don't know when they're gonna hit the wire or come out elsewhere.
This move in MRO looks nearly all tariff related - some company related initially (with the tariffs not being factored into the forecasts so the market didn't know what to pencil in) and then the follow through from the S&P500 breaking under the 200 day moving average and continuing to hit further lows.
It is abit capital preservation out there in the near term. More companies are commenting on the tariffs and it is plain to see what is happening out there.
I am watching 113 small and mid caps (mainly smaller) and can count 9 companies that have made any form of notable price gain very recently. Some of them are giving back the gains too.
That is such a tough environment. If anyone new is in the market, I mean......even more experienced folk are finding it challenging!
Use stops, bank into spikes is the only play in town right now. I'm mostly just sitting this yeah but no but yeah...but no...on tariffs.phase out - too hard to trade with confidence.
Gap up, gap down from one headline to the next.
MRO sort of paints the picture.
EDIT: Yeah....it's Trump and more Trump......and he can't rule out a recession or higher prices and is being dismissive of businesses who are RIGHTLY concerned about the uncertainties this is all bringing. The US was comfortable about the tariffs a short while back, now you're getting more headlines about them having a bigger impact...so we have to watch how they move....just in case they have a bigger tumble from here.
All imo
DYOR |
Its all about Mr Trump believing that we’ll have to wander in the wilderness before the chosen few reach the promised land. |
Is the share price low yet?
LOL
To a monkey: define 'low'.
Guffaw. |
Oh, I don't expect much from the ADVFN BBs. LOL
As I say: monkeys and bananas. |
Most bulletin boards are frequented by monkeys and bananas for the very simple reason that those who care to post are anonymous.That anonymity means that they cannot be held meaningfully accountable for what they are posting.Moreover,the greater number don't even subscribe,they are 'free' members,fodder to nurture advertising revenue.Don't expect anything and you won't be disappointed. |
My words are wasted on you.
There are plenty of books on these things and it just requires you to buy them, sit down and read them.
Of course, continue in your ignorance if you like, it makes no difference to me. You are the loser. |
 I'm a monkey.
Louis, I accept your right to be offensive although I'm only offended by your inability to explain economic value, intrinsic value, opportunity cost, income statement profitability and balance sheet profitability.
Great word salad. You'd make it in politics big time.
The only aspect I can agree with in a BB is do it when the share price is low. When the share price is rising hold back on the BB. Their larger spend NOW as rettah points out is sensible and if you can agree that point it follows that (in hindsight) last months BB spend was less than sensible.
And I'm pretty certain the 'Sage' also advocates that aspect to a BB. I also believe Buffett owns a big chunk of Coca-Cola. $29bn I understand.
Coca-cola are about to embark upon a share buyback. 1bn Euro buy-back. It appears the EPS is down 15% on the previous year. Bet you the director's bonuses are linked to EPS. So, let's blow 1bn Euro of shareholders cash to ensure the bonuses are maintained.
Now, throw me a banana please 😂🍌🍌🍌 |
Barclays raises Melrose Industries target to 730 (650) pence - 'overweight' |
Louis Brandeis is right but doesn't make it clear whether he is a monkey or a banana. |
Big increase in the share buybacks the last couple of days from around 62,000 to 330,000 and 209,500. |
Thanks rettah. I'll not rehash the debate about BB's on this thread as it's been debated to death on lots of other threads.
I cannot escape the view though that the £72 already spent and the £240 to be spent hasn't had a positive share price effect.
I'm looking for a quick profit on this one - I think - and hence the BB is pretty immaterial to me and in effect, denies me a dividend whilst holding. But I appreciate the heads up. |
I think in terms of shareholder returns you need to also consider the share buybacks. They spent £72M on dividends last year and £431M on buybacks. They are committed to an additional £250M of buybacks to march 2026. |
I see some posters handles on here I recognise. Hello all.
I'm looking in as I feel MRO may be worth a small punt early next week in the hope that the recent falls have been overdone somewhat.
Given MRO's activities in the defence area and given the expected increase in spending in the same area I would expect the share price to rise at some point over the next few months.
I note the Div. Yield is poor though and that's one of my main concerns. I don't mind waiting for an eventual share price rise if I'm being paid during the wait.
To add to 1knocker's suggestion about a fair price, my ii SIPP suggests 740.0p hence a current 34% discount.
Cheers all. |
rettah, let's see if we get any BOD buying. |
Quite a poor article. Seems to ignore the fact that the issue discussed applies to 5 out of the 19 RRSPs. Even claimed initially that Melrose had withdrawn its RRSP explainer. The explainer states quite clearly (there is a graph)that the unbilled work will increase until mid 2030s. |
Article in the FT by Byrce Elder on why Melrose is falling - available online if interested. |
This has been one of my most successful investments.
I rate the management highly.
I have been wondering though if the share price was getting a bit inflated.
I don't think the results (pretty good IMO) or the tariff risk warrants a 25% fall in the SOP this week. i think the share price was probably a bit high, and a correction was due.
My difficulty is to determine what a decent price at which to top up would be.
I already have quite a decent holding, so I feel no inclination to chase.
Any thoughts? |
There's one very chunky sale late in the day but the greater part might have been crossed by look of the trade data.That sizeable sale might account for the further sharp fall today.The stock is down 30 per cent in a couple of days which,despite the run up to the figures,is pretty bizarre given the results and frankly ebullient statement.Some good points Louis.There are some inherent contradictions in Trumps approach.Is it too late for the UK to stimulate ship building on the Clyde and reinvigorate Lancashire cotton mills.Global capitalism has thrived on seeking out cheap labour worldwide to satisfy consumers in advanced economies.if you compromise that demand, the whole Ponzi like scheme could collapse like a pack of cards and we'll have a repeat of the 1930s depression and we know where that scenario leads.Yet for now,Trump can bathe in the adulation of the populace in the rust belt,US steel prices have risen 30% since he got elected.Trump is a narcissist,if a waning economy starts impacting his popularity,i think he'll moderate his approach. |
I have added two more tranches today. Although disappointing if you are a holder it is nice to have this opportunity to get back in. Forward cashflows are extremely difficult to predict with this company with respect to the revenue sharing agreements. Arguments a plenty about discount values. I don't know why.
The real discount values you should be using in DCFs are YOUR opportunity costs. Buffett would agree. I think therefore the UBS discounting rates are pessimistic and the present value of the RRSPs are higher than what UBS calculates, exactly where who knows. |
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