Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 14/7/2019 11:12

cheshire - separate the outcomes is fine; majority of the posts here put them in the same bag. Health and quality of life always beats any other subject.

[cheshire pete] 14/7/2019 11:08

Alphorn: Is that really the case? Thought that they were similar on GBP, maybe I've missed something. No deal £ falls, no Brexit or can kicked again +ve for £? What we want to happen completely different, totally agree. Separate my political head from financial. Life not all about money though.

[alphorn] 14/7/2019 10:48

Y2k had some real issues; a simple example (context of a banking thread) would be value dating in major bank interest rate software. That is now in the past - the future is always more exciting.

[alphorn] 14/7/2019 10:45

cheshire - we could not be more opposed in our views on GBP. I hope that you are not my counterparty to date as you would be quickly losing your house.

[cheshire pete] 14/7/2019 10:26

Of course, and sensible people choose the better solution based on reality, facts and pragmatism rather than forlorn hope, wishful thinking and WW2 nostalgia.

If you don't know where you've been how can you know where you are going?

[minerve 2] 14/7/2019 10:12

I really don't care whether you believe it or not. You are just a tradesman. Nothing more, nothing less. Tradesman generally tend to have extreme levels of ignorance and a deluded sense of one's own ability and status in society. You are not the type of person I look to for general wisdom, advice or anything else. To put it bluntly, you are not in my league - professionally or socially. ;)

[minerve 2] 14/7/2019 09:37

cheshire pete 14 Jul '19 - 09:26 - 264647 of 264648

"There is always a solution Minerve...for those that want one that is."

Of course, and sensible people choose the better solution based on reality, facts and pragmatism rather than forlorn hope, wishful thinking and WW2 nostalgia.

Perhaps that's why I am a successful millionaire and you are a frustrated pensioner.

[maxk] 14/7/2019 09:29

Tory chairmen cast aside neutrality to endorse Boris Johnson for party leadership



A group of 68 chairmen, deputy chairmen and presidents of Tory associations across the country have backed Boris Johnson to be the next Conservative party leader CREDIT: LEON NEAL/GETTY IMAGE



Edward Malnick, sunday political editor Harry Yorke, political correspondent
14 JULY 2019 • 6:00AM



Boris Johnson today receives the backing of dozens of Conservative association chairmen as they defy the party's demand for them to remain neutral during the leadership contest.

A group of 68 chairmen, deputy chairmen and presidents of Tory associations across the country sign a joint letter to The Sunday Telegraph declaring that Mr Johnson is the best candidate to unite the party and deliver Brexit.

The group, including 38 association chairmen, suggest that without the former foreign secretary's leadership the party would face "the chaos of Jeremy Corbyn and Nigel Farage" and an "emboldened" SNP in Scotland.

It comes as Jeremy Hunt issues a last ditch appeal to "undecided" Tory members to vote...



More:

[cheshire pete] 14/7/2019 09:26

There is always a solution Minerve...for those that want one that is.

[minerve 2] 14/7/2019 09:15

cheshire

What you and your cohort choose to do is entirely up to you. I am not interested in silly humans of the last century.

[cheshire pete] 14/7/2019 09:08

Minerve #635: Maybe the lefty vegan types could start buying British meat instead of beans and lentils. Won't buy EU stuff after no deal, only British. If there's still a problem, then compensate out of the £39 billion we won't be paying the EU under Boris.

[sarkasm] 14/7/2019 09:06

THE MOTELY FOOL


Have I missed something? Could the Lloyds share price be heading to 30p?

Rupert Hargreaves | Sunday, 14th July, 2019 | More on: LLOY
Close-up Of Wooden Blocks With Risk Word In Front Of Businessperson's Hand Holding Magnifying Glass
Image source: Getty Images

Whenever I’ve covered the Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price in the past, I’ve always concluded that the bank has a bright outlook. Its robust capital position, combined with an attractive valuation and market-beating dividend yield, are qualities that appeal to me as an investor.

However, for some reason, the market continues to view the business with scepticism. So here I’m going to try and establish if there’s something I’m missing here, and if the bank is really worth much less than its current value.
Economic concerns

As Lloyds is one of the largest banks in the UK and the largest mortgage lender, its fortunes are tied to the prosperity of the country’s economy. This turned out to be the bank’s undoing in 2007/08 when the global financial crisis took bankers by surprise. Lloyds found itself struggling to survive as losses mounted and had to ask the government for a bailout.

Even though the firm has come along way since those dark days, there’s still a chance it could come close to collapse at some point again in future. The possibility is relatively small, but it’s still there. A substantial decline in home prices due to economic recession could leave Lloyds nursing huge losses.

Regular stress tests conducted by the Bank of England and other regulators show Lloyds is unlikely to need another government bailout. But, in the worst case scenario, the bank might have to raise additional capital from investors and its dividend will almost certainly be eliminated.

Looking back, the UK economy has suffered a substantial economic decline roughly once every 10 years. On that basis, we are overdue a contraction. I think this is probably the most significant risk overhanging the Lloyds share price today.

We don’t know when the next economic downturn will arrive or the effect it will have on the bank when it does. One thing we do know is that the bank’s income will fall as the Bank of England will likely reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth and loan losses will rise in a recession.
Further to fall?

If the Bank of England reduces interest rates to zero, Lloyds’ growth will evaporate, and a good deal of its earnings will disappear as well. If you assume earnings fall by 50% from current levels back to 2016’s 2.9p per share, I think the stock could fall as far as 30p. That’s assuming a multiple of 10 times earnings, which is slightly above what the stock is trading at the moment.

That’s the bear argument for the Lloyds share price, and while I don’t think the UK economy will collapse into severe recession anytime soon, I think it’s always worth considering the worst case scenario for any investment.

In the meantime, Lloyds remains, in my opinion, an attractive income stock with its dividend yield of 6% and an attractive valuation of just 7.4 times forward earnings.

[sarkasm] 14/7/2019 09:06

THE MOTELY FOOL


Have I missed something? Could the Lloyds share price be heading to 30p?

Rupert Hargreaves | Sunday, 14th July, 2019 | More on: LLOY
Close-up Of Wooden Blocks With Risk Word In Front Of Businessperson's Hand Holding Magnifying Glass
Image source: Getty Images

Whenever I’ve covered the Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price in the past, I’ve always concluded that the bank has a bright outlook. Its robust capital position, combined with an attractive valuation and market-beating dividend yield, are qualities that appeal to me as an investor.

However, for some reason, the market continues to view the business with scepticism. So here I’m going to try and establish if there’s something I’m missing here, and if the bank is really worth much less than its current value.
Economic concerns

As Lloyds is one of the largest banks in the UK and the largest mortgage lender, its fortunes are tied to the prosperity of the country’s economy. This turned out to be the bank’s undoing in 2007/08 when the global financial crisis took bankers by surprise. Lloyds found itself struggling to survive as losses mounted and had to ask the government for a bailout.

Even though the firm has come along way since those dark days, there’s still a chance it could come close to collapse at some point again in future. The possibility is relatively small, but it’s still there. A substantial decline in home prices due to economic recession could leave Lloyds nursing huge losses.

Regular stress tests conducted by the Bank of England and other regulators show Lloyds is unlikely to need another government bailout. But, in the worst case scenario, the bank might have to raise additional capital from investors and its dividend will almost certainly be eliminated.

Looking back, the UK economy has suffered a substantial economic decline roughly once every 10 years. On that basis, we are overdue a contraction. I think this is probably the most significant risk overhanging the Lloyds share price today.

We don’t know when the next economic downturn will arrive or the effect it will have on the bank when it does. One thing we do know is that the bank’s income will fall as the Bank of England will likely reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth and loan losses will rise in a recession.
Further to fall?

If the Bank of England reduces interest rates to zero, Lloyds’ growth will evaporate, and a good deal of its earnings will disappear as well. If you assume earnings fall by 50% from current levels back to 2016’s 2.9p per share, I think the stock could fall as far as 30p. That’s assuming a multiple of 10 times earnings, which is slightly above what the stock is trading at the moment.

That’s the bear argument for the Lloyds share price, and while I don’t think the UK economy will collapse into severe recession anytime soon, I think it’s always worth considering the worst case scenario for any investment.

In the meantime, Lloyds remains, in my opinion, an attractive income stock with its dividend yield of 6% and an attractive valuation of just 7.4 times forward earnings.

[minerve 2] 14/7/2019 09:00

Shy Tott

Y2K bug arose because of original hardware limitations. If hardware was 64 bit architecture like it is common today the bug would have never been a problem because there would be more than enough memory and data bandwidth to store a full date. In the earlier days, memory and data bus width were limited, which meant the software that was written for them had to be sparing with its allocation of registers and memory to hold such data. Software has to store the data in hardware somewhere! As hardware architecture evolved much of the software wasn't rewritten to make use of the additional memory/register space. In other words it wasn't utilising the registers and memory now available when, in many scenarios it could. Y2K could be resolved by updated software patches but that wasn't always the case - depends on the HARDWARE ARCHITECTURE!

There is much embedded architecture, like on space shuttles, which didn't have new hardware! Much of it was still 70s technology. This had to be checked for Y2K and sometimes it might not be a software fix because there wasn't a new expanded processor register/memory architecture to run an improved date system on!

It isn't all about computers on your desk you know! There is just as much embedded electronics with no/limited user interfaces!

So shut up. I am the authority on software/hardware on this thread. I have a Honours degree in electronics and worked for IBM. As well designing processors I have written software in many computer languages including assembly and machine code through to using C++ making using of class libraries doing stuff like polymorphism.

Idiot!

[cm44] 14/7/2019 08:52

Putting aside all things brexit on this sport filled Sunday,
Care to disagree? Feel free.
Here's my list of winners,
HAMILTON,
ENGLAND,
DJOKOVIC.
Have a good day folks.

[buywell3] 14/7/2019 08:21

LLOY chart RHS shoulder formation now near to completion IMO , 50p test to follow chartwise,

Off topic but affects all larger families in the UK ... Alzheimer's or Dementia


Hundreds of thousands of CJD cases have been misdiagnosed in the USA as Alzheimer's
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The BBC2 programme , Mad Cow the new new wave last thursday at 9pm, didn't dare pick up on this, because it was warned off.

But it means that 100% of surgical instruments should be tested for protein residue for EVERY type of operation not just neurology and eye surgery and a few others as detailed in DOH HTM 01-01 2016 update , here is why:

2003



'' Now people are beginning to realize that because something looks like sporadic CJD they can't necessarily conclude that it's not linked to (mad cow disease)," said Laura Manuelidis, section chief of surgery in the neuropathology department at Yale University, who conducted a 1989 study that found 13 percent of Alzheimer's patients actually had CJD.

Several studies, including the one by Manuelidis, have found autopsies reveal 3-percent-to-13-percent of patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's or dementia actually suffered from CJD. Those numbers might sound low, but there are 4-million Alzheimer's cases and hundreds of thousands of dementia cases in the United States. A small percentage of those cases could add up to 120,000 or more CJD victims going undetected and not included in official statistics.''





buywell notes

In 2003

From the Laura Manuelidis, section chief of surgery in the neuropathology department at Yale University findings in 2003:

At her lower end figure of 3% of misdiagnosed Alzheimer's cases which should have been diagnosed as CJD, this works out that there should be a minimum of 120,000 cases a year minimum of CJD being diagnosed.

In 2018

5.7 million Americans of all ages are now diagnosed as having Alzheimer’s and now someone in the United States is being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease every 65 seconds.


Based upon the average range of the studies which misdiagnosed Alzheimer's which should have been diagnosed as CJD ie 3% to 13% , average = 8%


The number of people in the USA today that should be diagnosed with a form of CJD is 8% of 5.7M = 456,000.

Yes 456,000 of CJD cases in the USA that have at present been wrongly diagnosed as Alzheimer's



WHY is this happening and why are CJD cases not been diagnosed correctly ?
-----------------------------------------------------------------


buywell thinks this is because:

1. No piece of test equipment exists that can test for any form of CJD ( at least
eight types now exist, more being identified) in a living human being.

2. CJD can at present only be 100% correctly identified by post-mortem


3. CJD is a prion disease always fatal and no cure ... like Alzheimer's. Hospital
staff know this and also that it is highly contagious and transmissible
disease, they are scared of catching it themselves and rightly so.



There is a development in the USA where some state universities are trying to develop a piece of test equipment that will detect CWD in a living deer. ( CWD is a TSE, like BSE, a prion disease in Cervids)

One has to ask why is the FDA and USA government not involved or at least funding this ?

buywell thinks because such a piece if new test equipment can then be modified to detect CJD in humans and then case numbers will rocket to the hundreds of thousands causing mass panic.

[careful] 14/7/2019 08:18

So America warns the UK to fall in line over Huawei, or no trade deal.
Our new masters, better do as we are told or else.
(this was reported in todays Sunday Telegraph.)


For one reason or another the planned sell out to America by US born Boris Johnson and Trump groupy Nigel Farage is becoming difficult for them both.

[xxxxxy] 14/7/2019 07:39

Lovely lovely day in Wales.

[shy tott] 14/7/2019 05:57

643, maxk, our very own Walter Minny professes to be an expert on y2k and yet the fact that it was predominantly a software concern escapes him. Any hardware knowledge such as processor design which he claims had no relevance to 99.9% of y2k at all.

[grupo] 14/7/2019 05:51

Gary Greenwood, banking analyst at Shore Capital, said: 'The reality is banks would probably like to close branches faster than they are, but for political reasons it's very difficult for them to do that.'

Lloyds said it will only close the last branch in town if there is a local Post Office or a cash machine there. It has also started sending Lloyds vans, or 'mobile branches', to rural areas.

A spokesman said: 'We are committed to continuing to run the UK's largest branch network and, reflecting that the way customers choose to bank with us is changing, we believe providing a range of banking options is the best way to support our customers.'

[minerve 2] 13/7/2019 23:21

"Happy days."

The cliché of a moron if ever there was one. ;)

Not quite "Happy Days" if you are losing your job, or your business is going to suffer, or you are a sheep farmer! But do continue in your ignorant and selfish fantasies.

I do wonder sometimes whether these clowns actually believe in what they write.