Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[cheshire pete] 14/7/2019 09:08

Minerve #635: Maybe the lefty vegan types could start buying British meat instead of beans and lentils. Won't buy EU stuff after no deal, only British. If there's still a problem, then compensate out of the £39 billion we won't be paying the EU under Boris.

[sarkasm] 14/7/2019 09:06

THE MOTELY FOOL


Have I missed something? Could the Lloyds share price be heading to 30p?

Rupert Hargreaves | Sunday, 14th July, 2019 | More on: LLOY
Close-up Of Wooden Blocks With Risk Word In Front Of Businessperson's Hand Holding Magnifying Glass
Image source: Getty Images

Whenever I’ve covered the Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price in the past, I’ve always concluded that the bank has a bright outlook. Its robust capital position, combined with an attractive valuation and market-beating dividend yield, are qualities that appeal to me as an investor.

However, for some reason, the market continues to view the business with scepticism. So here I’m going to try and establish if there’s something I’m missing here, and if the bank is really worth much less than its current value.
Economic concerns

As Lloyds is one of the largest banks in the UK and the largest mortgage lender, its fortunes are tied to the prosperity of the country’s economy. This turned out to be the bank’s undoing in 2007/08 when the global financial crisis took bankers by surprise. Lloyds found itself struggling to survive as losses mounted and had to ask the government for a bailout.

Even though the firm has come along way since those dark days, there’s still a chance it could come close to collapse at some point again in future. The possibility is relatively small, but it’s still there. A substantial decline in home prices due to economic recession could leave Lloyds nursing huge losses.

Regular stress tests conducted by the Bank of England and other regulators show Lloyds is unlikely to need another government bailout. But, in the worst case scenario, the bank might have to raise additional capital from investors and its dividend will almost certainly be eliminated.

Looking back, the UK economy has suffered a substantial economic decline roughly once every 10 years. On that basis, we are overdue a contraction. I think this is probably the most significant risk overhanging the Lloyds share price today.

We don’t know when the next economic downturn will arrive or the effect it will have on the bank when it does. One thing we do know is that the bank’s income will fall as the Bank of England will likely reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth and loan losses will rise in a recession.
Further to fall?

If the Bank of England reduces interest rates to zero, Lloyds’ growth will evaporate, and a good deal of its earnings will disappear as well. If you assume earnings fall by 50% from current levels back to 2016’s 2.9p per share, I think the stock could fall as far as 30p. That’s assuming a multiple of 10 times earnings, which is slightly above what the stock is trading at the moment.

That’s the bear argument for the Lloyds share price, and while I don’t think the UK economy will collapse into severe recession anytime soon, I think it’s always worth considering the worst case scenario for any investment.

In the meantime, Lloyds remains, in my opinion, an attractive income stock with its dividend yield of 6% and an attractive valuation of just 7.4 times forward earnings.

[sarkasm] 14/7/2019 09:06

THE MOTELY FOOL


Have I missed something? Could the Lloyds share price be heading to 30p?

Rupert Hargreaves | Sunday, 14th July, 2019 | More on: LLOY
Close-up Of Wooden Blocks With Risk Word In Front Of Businessperson's Hand Holding Magnifying Glass
Image source: Getty Images

Whenever I’ve covered the Lloyds (LSE: LLOY) share price in the past, I’ve always concluded that the bank has a bright outlook. Its robust capital position, combined with an attractive valuation and market-beating dividend yield, are qualities that appeal to me as an investor.

However, for some reason, the market continues to view the business with scepticism. So here I’m going to try and establish if there’s something I’m missing here, and if the bank is really worth much less than its current value.
Economic concerns

As Lloyds is one of the largest banks in the UK and the largest mortgage lender, its fortunes are tied to the prosperity of the country’s economy. This turned out to be the bank’s undoing in 2007/08 when the global financial crisis took bankers by surprise. Lloyds found itself struggling to survive as losses mounted and had to ask the government for a bailout.

Even though the firm has come along way since those dark days, there’s still a chance it could come close to collapse at some point again in future. The possibility is relatively small, but it’s still there. A substantial decline in home prices due to economic recession could leave Lloyds nursing huge losses.

Regular stress tests conducted by the Bank of England and other regulators show Lloyds is unlikely to need another government bailout. But, in the worst case scenario, the bank might have to raise additional capital from investors and its dividend will almost certainly be eliminated.

Looking back, the UK economy has suffered a substantial economic decline roughly once every 10 years. On that basis, we are overdue a contraction. I think this is probably the most significant risk overhanging the Lloyds share price today.

We don’t know when the next economic downturn will arrive or the effect it will have on the bank when it does. One thing we do know is that the bank’s income will fall as the Bank of England will likely reduce interest rates to stimulate economic growth and loan losses will rise in a recession.
Further to fall?

If the Bank of England reduces interest rates to zero, Lloyds’ growth will evaporate, and a good deal of its earnings will disappear as well. If you assume earnings fall by 50% from current levels back to 2016’s 2.9p per share, I think the stock could fall as far as 30p. That’s assuming a multiple of 10 times earnings, which is slightly above what the stock is trading at the moment.

That’s the bear argument for the Lloyds share price, and while I don’t think the UK economy will collapse into severe recession anytime soon, I think it’s always worth considering the worst case scenario for any investment.

In the meantime, Lloyds remains, in my opinion, an attractive income stock with its dividend yield of 6% and an attractive valuation of just 7.4 times forward earnings.

[minerve 2] 14/7/2019 09:00

Shy Tott

Y2K bug arose because of original hardware limitations. If hardware was 64 bit architecture like it is common today the bug would have never been a problem because there would be more than enough memory and data bandwidth to store a full date. In the earlier days, memory and data bus width were limited, which meant the software that was written for them had to be sparing with its allocation of registers and memory to hold such data. Software has to store the data in hardware somewhere! As hardware architecture evolved much of the software wasn't rewritten to make use of the additional memory/register space. In other words it wasn't utilising the registers and memory now available when, in many scenarios it could. Y2K could be resolved by updated software patches but that wasn't always the case - depends on the HARDWARE ARCHITECTURE!

There is much embedded architecture, like on space shuttles, which didn't have new hardware! Much of it was still 70s technology. This had to be checked for Y2K and sometimes it might not be a software fix because there wasn't a new expanded processor register/memory architecture to run an improved date system on!

It isn't all about computers on your desk you know! There is just as much embedded electronics with no/limited user interfaces!

So shut up. I am the authority on software/hardware on this thread. I have a Honours degree in electronics and worked for IBM. As well designing processors I have written software in many computer languages including assembly and machine code through to using C++ making using of class libraries doing stuff like polymorphism.

Idiot!

[cm44] 14/7/2019 08:52

Putting aside all things brexit on this sport filled Sunday,
Care to disagree? Feel free.
Here's my list of winners,
HAMILTON,
ENGLAND,
DJOKOVIC.
Have a good day folks.

[buywell3] 14/7/2019 08:21

LLOY chart RHS shoulder formation now near to completion IMO , 50p test to follow chartwise,

Off topic but affects all larger families in the UK ... Alzheimer's or Dementia


Hundreds of thousands of CJD cases have been misdiagnosed in the USA as Alzheimer's
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

The BBC2 programme , Mad Cow the new new wave last thursday at 9pm, didn't dare pick up on this, because it was warned off.

But it means that 100% of surgical instruments should be tested for protein residue for EVERY type of operation not just neurology and eye surgery and a few others as detailed in DOH HTM 01-01 2016 update , here is why:

2003



'' Now people are beginning to realize that because something looks like sporadic CJD they can't necessarily conclude that it's not linked to (mad cow disease)," said Laura Manuelidis, section chief of surgery in the neuropathology department at Yale University, who conducted a 1989 study that found 13 percent of Alzheimer's patients actually had CJD.

Several studies, including the one by Manuelidis, have found autopsies reveal 3-percent-to-13-percent of patients diagnosed with Alzheimer's or dementia actually suffered from CJD. Those numbers might sound low, but there are 4-million Alzheimer's cases and hundreds of thousands of dementia cases in the United States. A small percentage of those cases could add up to 120,000 or more CJD victims going undetected and not included in official statistics.''





buywell notes

In 2003

From the Laura Manuelidis, section chief of surgery in the neuropathology department at Yale University findings in 2003:

At her lower end figure of 3% of misdiagnosed Alzheimer's cases which should have been diagnosed as CJD, this works out that there should be a minimum of 120,000 cases a year minimum of CJD being diagnosed.

In 2018

5.7 million Americans of all ages are now diagnosed as having Alzheimer’s and now someone in the United States is being diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease every 65 seconds.


Based upon the average range of the studies which misdiagnosed Alzheimer's which should have been diagnosed as CJD ie 3% to 13% , average = 8%


The number of people in the USA today that should be diagnosed with a form of CJD is 8% of 5.7M = 456,000.

Yes 456,000 of CJD cases in the USA that have at present been wrongly diagnosed as Alzheimer's



WHY is this happening and why are CJD cases not been diagnosed correctly ?
-----------------------------------------------------------------


buywell thinks this is because:

1. No piece of test equipment exists that can test for any form of CJD ( at least
eight types now exist, more being identified) in a living human being.

2. CJD can at present only be 100% correctly identified by post-mortem


3. CJD is a prion disease always fatal and no cure ... like Alzheimer's. Hospital
staff know this and also that it is highly contagious and transmissible
disease, they are scared of catching it themselves and rightly so.



There is a development in the USA where some state universities are trying to develop a piece of test equipment that will detect CWD in a living deer. ( CWD is a TSE, like BSE, a prion disease in Cervids)

One has to ask why is the FDA and USA government not involved or at least funding this ?

buywell thinks because such a piece if new test equipment can then be modified to detect CJD in humans and then case numbers will rocket to the hundreds of thousands causing mass panic.

[careful] 14/7/2019 08:18

So America warns the UK to fall in line over Huawei, or no trade deal.
Our new masters, better do as we are told or else.
(this was reported in todays Sunday Telegraph.)


For one reason or another the planned sell out to America by US born Boris Johnson and Trump groupy Nigel Farage is becoming difficult for them both.

[xxxxxy] 14/7/2019 07:39

Lovely lovely day in Wales.

[shy tott] 14/7/2019 05:57

643, maxk, our very own Walter Minny professes to be an expert on y2k and yet the fact that it was predominantly a software concern escapes him. Any hardware knowledge such as processor design which he claims had no relevance to 99.9% of y2k at all.

[grupo] 14/7/2019 05:51

Gary Greenwood, banking analyst at Shore Capital, said: 'The reality is banks would probably like to close branches faster than they are, but for political reasons it's very difficult for them to do that.'

Lloyds said it will only close the last branch in town if there is a local Post Office or a cash machine there. It has also started sending Lloyds vans, or 'mobile branches', to rural areas.

A spokesman said: 'We are committed to continuing to run the UK's largest branch network and, reflecting that the way customers choose to bank with us is changing, we believe providing a range of banking options is the best way to support our customers.'

[minerve 2] 13/7/2019 23:21

"Happy days."

The cliché of a moron if ever there was one. ;)

Not quite "Happy Days" if you are losing your job, or your business is going to suffer, or you are a sheep farmer! But do continue in your ignorant and selfish fantasies.

I do wonder sometimes whether these clowns actually believe in what they write.

[cheshire pete] 13/7/2019 22:58

Lots of opportunity to make £ all the way to Halloween and beyond if the EU don't blink and Boris takes us out no deal. Big Brexit party on the proceeds. Happy days.

[minerve 2] 13/7/2019 22:14

How can No deal be a non-event?

It has already killed the £ and cost jobs. The clowns are blinkered.

[maxk] 13/7/2019 21:37

And where did she get it from?


She's not bad looking tho, beats the hell out of the demons they normally line up for question time.

[bargainbob] 13/7/2019 21:31

Oh dear
The source of the leak.

[maxk] 13/7/2019 21:14

It's in the Guardian, so it must be true!




Boris Johnson has support of two thirds of Tory voters for leadership, says poll

Biggest lead over Jeremy Hunt is regarding Brexit, with 69% saying Johnson can get UK out by 31 October



Toby Helm

Sat 13 Jul 2019 20.00 BST



Tory voters now back Boris Johnson over Jeremy Hunt to be the next Conservative party leader and prime minister by a margin of almost two to one, according to a new Opinium/Observer poll.


Some 53% of those questioned, and who voted Conservative at the 2017 general election, say they would cast a vote for Johnson, against 29% who would choose Hunt.

Johnson is seen as the best choice for prime minister by 47% of Tory supporters, against 25% for Hunt, and as most likely to beat Jeremy Corbyn at the next election by 61% compared with 19% who choose Hunt.

The survey confirms Johnson as the hot favourite to succeed Theresa May when the result of the ballot now taking place among 160,000 Tory party members is announced on July 22.



More:

[alphorn] 13/7/2019 19:51

G2 - at least some of us are doing something...………...very profitably (so far).
Hoping that the crystal ball stays in one piece. ;)

[grahamite2] 13/7/2019 18:54

#264622 unlike the remoaners, who all think they have an infallible crystal ball, I don't claim to know the future. But I think AshesToAshes is right - no deal Brexit will be a total non-event just like Y2K.

[stewart64] 13/7/2019 18:39

Tend to agree with xxxxy Leave might still win another public vote. A good deal of the country feel alienated from the elites in the South/ Media, it's not just about GDP and economics for them but a backlash against Liberal facism. Media such as Channel 4, radio 4 and the BBC just a parody of leftist propaganda..if they can stick Grenfell into a drama they damn well will. Lady Nugee, Bob Geldolf, Eddie Izzard..put them on the screens and the Remain campaign is losing thousands of votes by the second. Yes it might be detrimental to leave the EU. Might I be bloody minded enough to vote Leave to stick it up Jon( I've never seen so many white people in one place before) Snow and Guru Murphy...Hell yes.

[maxk] 13/7/2019 18:21

AshesToAshes MisterBeaky 2d ago


Brexit will be Y2k on steroids - the biggest non-event ever. While the streets run brown with the diarrhea of apoplectic Remainers hysterically screaming about catastrophes, real life will go on.