Lloyds Banking Share Discussion Threads

[alphorn] 11/7/2019 07:05

This FT headline captures my thoughts exactly which probably is why I like it!

"Will Johnson’s bluster over no-deal Brexit collide with reality?"
Reality, for me, includes the issue itself as well as the time needed to form a new team, come up with an agreed strategy, negotiate (around summer holidays), try and obtain agreement by both parties, obtain official approvals and implement.
Challenging is being polite.

[xxxxxy] 11/7/2019 06:12

The EUSSR is BAD

[xxxxxy] 11/7/2019 06:11

What do we need from a new Ambassador to the USA?

By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: JULY 11, 2019

The outgoing Ambassador was right to resign. His position was undermined by the leaker, who needs to be identified. He could no longer perform his role, as the President took his criticisms personally. The next Ambassador must be capable of good analysis in private communications, expressed in moderate and professional language, and be a great advocate of the United Kingdom. He or she will need to rebuild trust and regular exchanges with the Administration after this most unfortunate rupture. We need someone who likes the USA and respects the democratic decision of US voters.

The new appointee should be expected to regain access to senior officials and the President and to reassure them that the UK respects the Administration in office and wishes to work with them, whilst of course reserving the right of a trusted friend and ally to give unpopular advice in private and to disagree in public about policy where our interests as countries diverge. The first report back home should explain the successes and aims of the White House as they set them out, and to remind us that we can learn from their economic progress. The US is growing considerably faster than the UK or the EU. It is enjoying considerable success in creating many new jobs and getting real wages up. The President’s tax cuts have made people better off, promoted more investment in the USA and helped establish more and better paid employment. The President, unlike his predecessors has kept them and us out of difficult Middle Eastern wars. More background to US achievement would be helpful and provide essential political context to the long run up to the next Presidential election, which Mr Trump is in a good position currently to win.

Of course the Ambassador should also inform London of the Democrat critique of the Presidency to provide balance. Instead of siding with the Opposition the analysis should evaluate chances or probabilities of the Democrats finding a candidate for the Presidency who might be able to win, and in the meantime assessing what the Democrats in the House of Representatives can achieve on issues where the Congress has a say.

The diplomatic memo should not be cheer leading for the President’s critics, giving a false sense of their chances of gaining control. Nor should it be propaganda for Mr Trump, whose policies should be reported and scrutinised professionally. The new UK representative needs to be proud of the UK and our decision to leave the EU, and alert to the many opportunities Brexit offers for the US relationship, not just in our minds but in the mind of the President.

[cheshire pete] 10/7/2019 23:45

She's been warned off it minerve.

[maxk] 10/7/2019 23:22

There's no chance of that.

[cheshire pete] 10/7/2019 22:20

Funny how the Darroch leak coincided with vote for the Tory leadership contest. Why not days or weeks earlier? He had earlier career involvement with the EU. Interesting to see what Andrew Pierce makes of it on press preview.

[xxxxxy] 10/7/2019 21:56

A WTO Brexit isn’t really No Deal

Throughout the current Conservative Leadership contest discussions surrounding the technicalities of a so-called ‘No Deal World Trade Organisation Brexit’ have become commonplace.

This can only be a good thing. As we get closer to October 31st and negotiations with the EU become more serious, a clear plan about what a WTO Brexit means for the UK and the EU provides an excellent negotiating position.

With the seemingly inevitable victory of Boris Johnson in this Conservative Leadership race and the scrutiny which is placed upon him, the UK is slowly able to peel back the layers of ‘Project Fear’ to finally get to grips with the opportunities and possibilities presented by a WTO Brexit.

Prime amongst the options will be to immediately move forward with the trade deals and arrangements we can have with the hundreds of countries outside of the EU.

Full article

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 21:49

The UK NOV 1st 2019:

[xxxxxy] 10/7/2019 21:46

Trading under WTO rules

By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: JANUARY 10, 2019

There is a lot of confusion and deliberate misinformation about trading under the WTO. Here are some facts that might help.

1. All our current trade is under the WTO, as the EU is a member. The UK will become a full member with vote and voice as soon as we leave the EU, as we never surrendered our membership when we joined the EU.
2. There is no WTO schedule of tariffs that automatically comes in. Each member of the WTO files its own tariff schedule and trades with anyone under that who wish to trade. The WTO requires a member to trade with any other member on the same terms, unless there is an approved Free Trade Agreement that exempts the countries from the common tariff of the Schedules. A country is always free unilaterally to cut or remove tariffs.
3. If a country’s trading terms are disputed by another member there is a dispute resolution procedure. A dispute does not stop trading under the published terms whilst the dispute is being resolved.
4. The EU does not have Free Trade Agreements with the USA, China, Brazil etc so we trade successfully with them at the moment under WTO rules and under the tariff schedule set by the EU. Once out we can sign Free Trade deals with these countries removing these tariffs, or could cut some of the tariffs unilaterally any time we wanted to make imports cheaper.
5. The so called side deals the EU has with these countries are mainly unimportant or unrelated to trade. Some are multilateral agreements that the UK has signed anyway.
6.The one agreement we currently have through the EU that may be important, the General Procurement Agreement, gives us access to public procurement opportunities in signatory states, and gives them the same access to the UK. The WTO has now agreed the UK will be a member of that Agreement in our own right on departure from the EU.
7. The EU has free trade agreements with a number of mainly smaller countries. The top five, Switzerland, Canada, Korea, Norway and Turkey account for three quarters of the exports involved. Switzerland, for example, has agreed to continue all current preferences with the UK as well as with the rest of the EU on our exit. No country with an FTA with the EU has indicated any wish to terminate the agreement with the UK once we leave. Transferring the current deal to both the remaining EU and to the UK is a relatively straightforward process.
8. The WTO does not require us to impose new checks at borders or delay imports into the UK. They recommend risk based checks. As the risks of EU product will not go up the day we leave the EU there is no requirement to impose new difficult checks.
9. If the UK and the EU agree to negotiate a free trade agreement once the UK has left the EU on March 29 this year, we could agree to impose no tariffs on each other and would get WTO consent to not impose them pending the negotiation of a full free trade agreement.

Peter Lilley has published a good pamphlet with Global Britain and Labour Leave setting out more detail called “30 Truths about leaving on WTO terms”

[mikemichael2] 10/7/2019 21:34

I'll be off to Spain in my Joggers next week, do you think i'll be OK ??

[careful] 10/7/2019 21:27

A good deal would give us all of the benefits of a customs union without being in it.
A good deal would give us total control of our own borders, but insist that the EU. do not control their border in Ireland.
A good deal allows us negotiate our own trade deals, and yet roll over the existing EU. when it suits us.
A good deal lets us benefit from high quality EU. food subsidised by the CAP without us having to contribute into it...whilst leaving us free to take Americas surplus food when it suits us.
A good deal confirms London as the world leading financial centre as now.
A good deal does not disrupt our Aerospace, motor, pharma, food processing and nuclear industry as now.

I could go on, but we must retain most of the benefits we have now.

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 21:19

There you go grahamite, I've marked you up!

[grahamite2] 10/7/2019 21:12

Well, well - I agree with Minerve! Nothing wrong with that young lady's apparel.

[maxk] 10/7/2019 20:33

A well greased bum.

[shy tott] 10/7/2019 19:59

What would 'a good deal' look like to you careful?

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 19:46

UK want to Remain now, for sure.

Let's forget the whole stupid episode but not let us forget the charlatans and chimps that supported it.

[careful] 10/7/2019 19:43

this new German lady important to a renegotiation is our best hope.
She may make concessions, as the uk trade is important to Germany and Trump has them in his sights in the tariff war.
An amazing woman with 7 children.

I think Johnson could pull of a good deal, what a relief that would be.

My only remaining fear is that the eu. could make the judgement that by forcing a second referendum or an election Brexit could be cancelled altogether, which is what they want.

They could argue that the democratic will of the majority of the uk public has moved strongly to remain, unlike the result of 2016.
If they even think that, it will change their negotiating position.

[minerve 2] 10/7/2019 19:36

Oh maxk, how could you spoil the hate?

LOL

We love each other really.

[maxk] 10/7/2019 19:28

#264411 .. agreed, swoon