Kromek Share Discussion Threads

[b00mb0y] 19/7/2021 13:43

Don’t seem like anyone has any interest in this stock anymore! All have lost faith in IC’s Simon Thompson too. Is this going back to .12s? Ffs.

[aqc888] 19/7/2021 07:39

As annoying as it is, I’ve just got to sit and wait for the scientific results to be released. I remind myself of the excellent track record Kromek scientists have, when I get worried watching the Kromek CEO and his floundering statements etc.

This companies success will all be about this SCIENTIFIC result we are waiting for. All other factors are just noise until they are released.

[aqc888] 19/7/2021 06:12

Commercialisation of the machines should be by the end of the year ST says, so not too far off hopefully. I was a bit disappointed last week that the very positive article & ‘strong buy’ recommendation in IC had only a mild effect on the share price. Could see more buying today hopefully as people read it over the weekend. I’m wondering if the CEO regarding his ‘coming days’ statement was referring to his team getting and going through the results in the coming days? Massively misleading to investors. Any results would need to be accredited by a third party laboratory anyway for them to be worth anything. Who’s going to believe some AIM company without third party accreditation? Not many people I suspect

[33mick] 18/7/2021 21:52

Hi Dave, this is the Equity interview where Arnab says the prototype s will be ready for testing from March onwards...someone did state on LSE incorrectly that they had started before they had...there was another interview when Arnab confirmed the actual trials had started..early .Apr? I believe..BUT not at the begining of the year.

Then Paul Hill confirmed they would take some months...so things are about on track.

Arnabs 'in the coming days' when he meant weeks?
was just a genuine slip up, it happens.

From my post in Lse- 10th Feb

"RE: KMK a lot to look forward too 10 Feb 2021 14:31
This was the last interview with Equity on the 16th Jan and Arnab mentions 6-7 mins in that the New Bio Dection Unit will be ready for Piloting from March onwards....I think we'll hear about it when it starts...not long to wait now.."


hTTps://youtu.be/_9JGfQHOaWo

They didn't even have the full design team in place then as he says..just built it up to 20 strong think he's mentioned.

[dexter1612] 18/7/2021 20:42

I'm late to this company so 100% am no expert. However, on the timeline for results, I would say its vital that they have confidence in the data. Checked, cross checked and double checked, incorporated into test and trace applications etc.....this will take time and is probably the most important aspect of the entire device, user confidence. I wouldn't be alarmed by any perceived delay...just my thoughts.

[b00mb0y] 18/7/2021 19:58

Well put, Davethechef. My thoughts exactly. Some say exiting times ahead. I say quite daunting. Yet im hopeful.

[davethechef] 18/7/2021 19:47

I'm in two minds about this share especially recently. It could have great potential IF it ends up selling a lot of the covid detectors but that is a long way off. However, I'm still disappointed & puzzled on why Kromek haven't given out the much laundered & CEO promised positive trial results by now. Why!?! The " coming days" was stated many weeks ago now.
Is this still not the case, a over- exaggeration? & waiting on those further trials instead, like the NHS etc to bolster them. Who knows!?!
The Results Rns of last week, for me, didn't have enough detail, didn't mention the trials which started at the start of 2021 which we were led to believe, mentioned end of last year. Surely 6 months of trials is sufficient time.
We will need substantial orders. DARPA continues to be a good customer & news of Government's interest excites but it looks to me, like it'll take some time for firm orders to develop.
Their technology is possibly world- beating but there will be competitors emerging, in time, with maybe better PR & sales-team to back-them.
Come on Arnab!!!

[andrew97] 17/7/2021 12:09

I have bought in over the last few months and will continue to add at these levels. I believe the products are top class and there seems to be a spirit of continuous improvement and innovation. The numbers though are ok but not brilliant, assuming they get income up to about £20m this year then that looks about breakeven, I am unsure if they can make this with their existing product mix so it may rely on some income from new products, however again assuming additional income does not significantly increase admin expense and the factories have capacity then anything extra will drop through to the bottom line. I guess if their operational gearing cant cope then they follow a licencing model. The new chair will hopefully inject more realism and discipline thus enabling this to become a UK champion.

[dexter1612] 17/7/2021 11:29

I'm new here but the point about science& technology versus finance&business is a very relevant one. The most successful investors in technology have been able to find the balance of allowing the innovators and scientists the space and capacity to flourish without the added pressure of shareholder expectation. Its all about being a patient and good partner.If you believe in the fundamentals, the results will happen. I think this is more prescient than ever, with Moores law and the rapid changes to our lives with technology that have definitely been accelerated by the pandemic....thats what attracts me to this space in particular.

[aqc888] 17/7/2021 11:10

There is alot of frustration from investors over the management from the past few years, with a lot of disappointments.

However what we are waiting for here is a scientific result, not a business result. A lot of other people posting on lse and advfn are constantly criticising the management of Kromek (including myself). But I’d say we should be careful about blurring the two.

Kromeks scientific results have been consistently first class in the other products they develop, often world leading. Management results have been consistently poor.

The potential scale of this scientific result we are waiting for would be difficult for even a poor management team to squander. The new Chairman this year should also have the experience to provide good steady guidance

[aqc888] 17/7/2021 10:50

Headline in a paper today suggests lockdowns will return in September... just as machine is due to be released... but remember the uk is only a very small part of the global demand this machine will have if it works



https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9797637/UK-coronavirus-cases-stay-high-MONTHS-autumn-say-SAGE.html

[aqc888] 17/7/2021 10:47

“ expect some exciting news within the next few months” Simon Thompson IC. Also “commercial roll out later this year”.

I’d be interested to know if the machine detects all covid strains or needs different settings/machine for each different strain?

[dexter1612] 17/7/2021 09:54

What's the timeline for the results? I see product is already being trialled. A matter of weeks, months?Given that it's fairly certain of an acceleration of infections and new variants over the coming months and approaching peak winter, is it safe to assume that it will be expidiated to market if viable?

[aqc888] 17/7/2021 09:37

I don’t think anyone should underestimate the difficulty in achieving what Kromek are trying to do with this machine. I remember reading an article a leading scientist in the field (I posted it previously but can’t remember where it was from) saying what a difficult task it was. Comparing it to finding a needle in a haystack.

Personally I’d give it a 50:50 chance of working. The positivity from ST and constant positivity from the CEOs comments encourage me slightly.

BUT since the potential earnings from the Biopathogen detector isn’t priced in to the share price AND Kromek haven’t used any of their own money to develop it (US&UK grants). It seems that Kromeks regular business is performing well by itself without this machine. So we are basically getting a free ride on a 50:50 chance of the detector actually working. A detector which will completely re rate the share price. I’ve increased my holding to just under 10% of my portfolio. I don’t like investing in individual companies at all like this but this is an exception and I’m very nervous about doing this. I’m up 17% so far on Kromek and keeping a very close eye on what’s going on here, can’t wait to hear the results

[33mick] 17/7/2021 08:17

Just edited out the
Peel Hunt ref from my post yesterday as after checking there isn't any recent coverage I can see by them on Kromek.

As was mentioned in the 'who sells the other 80%' post I was replying to.
If I'm wrong please correct me...

The 300 and 500 mil dollar figs are both from Paul Hills articles (01&03/21) which have been referred to a couple of times now by ST. Investors Chronicle.

Note ST has not stuck his neck out to attempt to place a his own valuation here...be interesting if he does.

March 2021 Equity Development-
"and field trials will take some months, but assuming Kromek can ultimately acquire say a 20% market share, then this could translate into an approx. £100m pa opportunity, generating c.25% drop through rates. Which using 3x sales &/or 12x EBIT multiples – might lift the market cap by £300m (or 69p/share) vs £73.4m today. "


Jan 2021 pdf article.
"How big could this become?
Not surprisingly, this is a huge untapped market. Indeed hypothetically if these devices were priced
at just £10k each. Then ultimately the TAM might be worth >£500m pa, including high margin,
recurring revenues relating to daily sampling."

[33mick] 16/7/2021 16:18

Thanks Ark87,

ok I will do latter...

Agree it needs the confirmation that the NHS lab accreditation will provide by the sound of it to really get the confidence here. But I just think it's a given really.

[ark87] 16/7/2021 15:36

Great posts Mick. I think it's possible our Covid detector could see more demand then any of us ever imagined(if proven to work well). Any chance you can copy your posts to lse also? Not everyone reads advfn.

[dexter1612] 16/7/2021 15:17

Thanks Mick, I know a little about RNA/DNA sequencing, investment wise, through a long holding I had in SMT. Illumina, is one of its largest positions and they provided Moderna with the genetic sequencing for Covid 19, within 24hrs of receiving it, and are considered the benchmark. Fascinating to know what Kromek are using and how massive companies like Illumina would view them.Illumina and Moderna are now of course mega companies trading at billions of dollars. No direct comparison of course but in a relatable market.

[33mick] 16/7/2021 14:52

The very first bit of digging I did last November was to figure out which unique UK RNA/DNA sequencing platform Kromek are using...that's the main reason I invested here as its vastly superior to any other platforms which are clumbersome lab based tech.

It's never talked about here so I don't bother mentioning it anymore, plus it's
Commercially sensitive hence Kromek never name them.
All any other competitors will be hard pushed to match it. No other platforms to my knowledge are near in Cost -first, Realtime -2nd Accuracy -3rd Size -4th
If they try to use the same UK platform they're 2 years + behind Kromek and maybe they wouldn't deal with them anyway......who knows

[dexter1612] 16/7/2021 14:39

If the 'IP' rights and patents are locked in, it is probably a race to be first market mover for these detection machines. The new 'buy' UK and support UK innovation should definitely help. Already being chosen as a supplier to DARPA suggests to me they have met many challenging benchmarks that most would fail, to supply the US military or be on the cusp of.If this was on the Dow or Nasdaq it would be worth a fortune.

[b00mb0y] 16/7/2021 14:27

It tells me that some small American company will come along and get there before kmk. Only because kmk are too slow at getting there inventions to market.

[33mick] 16/7/2021 14:20

Cheers Dexter,

I started making a list of JUST the Bio related news that we should /could/ might be hearing from Kromek which will probably have a positive effect on the share price here, and generate ongoing media interest.

I had to get a bigger sheet of paper..

- News of 3rd party 'NHS lab'
'bio unit performance / sensitivity / Covid detection
results.

- Feedback from ongoing various UK Gov bodies
re- Bio accreditation/validation/standards definition

- Futher trails announced (UK)

- First US DARPA field trails / Prototype
being produced for such

- Kromek's web site update with new Bio
unit product page. Official product range name etc info for potential customers to show interest.

- Technical Press coverage in
Science/Physics/Engineering/Technology
mags /periodicals

- Other Analysis/Broker coverage..

- News about Bio manufacturing partnerships
progress. Licence deals.

- More prototypes being commissioned. (2 at
present ?)

- Interest from any Euro
governments/Bodies

- UK military interest /trails -
Portland Down etc

- Request s for trails by say -
Cunnards or Cruiseline industry or
any lead or launch customer news.

- News about the DARPA vehicle mounted
prototypes progress.

that's just of the top of my head.

There's probably a lot more....

[dexter1612] 16/7/2021 14:05

For someone who just invested here having done some DD, thats an really informative post Mick, thanks.

[33mick] 16/7/2021 11:47

AQC888
in Nov last year DARPA and the US Defense Department put out a solicitation to all US tech companies to attempt.....Again...
to develop a 'lab in a Box' fully automatic multi Patho/Virus/Bacteria Airborne system.
Under the SenSARS project, I've read since then that some companies that meet certain very strict requirements were elegble to be awarded 500k US grants with another 500k on milestones being meet.

This against Kromek's is it 13 million now?

They are very keen to get this technology up and running and the tech hasn't been there up to recently to achieve their goals.
So any Bio Covid virus other detection units that I'm sure we will read about in the future have to be 'lab in a box' Gold standard PCR+ they already use/have filter collect- send to lab set ups now.

Kromek are miles ahead in their development and have met all DARPAS milestones so far....the others if they do appear are at early prof of concept stage I would imagine.

So its probably prudent for any serious analyst to assume Kromek could have competition in a couple of years?

But the 20% share of the market for Bio units and the 500mil dollar (Paul hill ) global market are just estimates and could be much higher.

If you read any of the Biowatch US news they talk of multi year contracts of multi billion dollar sizes to role out this bio protection across US cites.

Developments in Gene sequencing is not standing still...the UK tech that Kromek are using(my assumption) for example has been vastly improved performance / sensitivity & time wise since the start of Kromek's project.
As you might have noticed the detection times mentioned by Kromek are now down to 30 mins or less.

There appears to be many overlapping US military/gov/security requirements and 'wants' that it's only a matter of time untill we hear of a Kromek prototype unit being shipped to the US for field trails there.

hTTps://www.militaryaerospace.com/sensors/article/14186667/sensors-airborne-pathogens-covid19

'The SenSARS project aims to identify SARS-CoV-2 signatures suitable for rapid indoor air monitoring and develop a TRL-4 prototype sensor.

ARLINGTON, Va. – U.S. military researchers are asking industry to develop technologies for sensors able to detect low concentrations if airborne viruses in room-size spaces within seconds to minutes to help detect the presence of pathogens like the COVID-19 coronavirus and prevent its spread.