Kromek Share Discussion Threads

[strategicinvestor2] 15/7/2021 11:00

Hi - what are your main assumptions in your projection of 70% share price rise ? I see much greater potential but haven’t done a detailed forecast at this stage ? Thanks

[ch1ck] 15/7/2021 10:49

Feeble attempt to deramp a stock up 10%. The price and volume shows this is now in play.I can see this up 70% in six months

[dougmachin] 15/7/2021 10:17

AQC888 and 33mick - good posts from both, appreciate it.

The presentation really helped me to see the whole company and the exciting potential in all of their areas.

For the timelines, I was like "yep, that's what I thought".

For me, Arnab came across as a bit more street wise too, in terms of not promising the moon tomorrow.

They're dealing with many high level government agencies. He mentioned there are no standards for air monitoring of COVID. We're emerging from this pandemic and... anyway, suffice to say, I'm a confident holder now.

DM

[aqc888] 15/7/2021 09:41

The ventilators are a perfect example of managements inability to communicate and manage investors expectations. I’m aware that at the start of the pandemic everybody including governments thought ventilators were the solution to people suffering with covid. However, as far as I’m aware the medical guidance changed and people suffering were given oxygen. Ventilators were only given to people in intensive care. There are not that many intensive care nurses and beds to go around. So having ventilators without the accompanying nurses was no use. So this was not a fault of Kromek.

What is categorically the fault of management is not updating shareholders with this very reasonable explanation of what happened.

The result of this is a very angry Que Passa who now disbelieves all the other things the management say.

Another example of the failure of Kromeks management. If you can see through all this inept management. Then I think there’s an interesting company. A company in which a very experienced Simon Thompson has clearly identified as having huge value and upside. The problem is new investors have is that there is a huge queue of old fed up investors waiting to exit and keeping the share price suppressed

[quepassa] 15/7/2021 09:22

I think a lot of investors will be displeased about the ventilators which were announced to great fanfare in April 2020.

Only yesterday, did we squeeze out of Kromek an answer as to how many had been made by them - which, according to dougmachin- was ZERO.

Kromek must have known about that for a long time but never had the courtesy to update the market.

Goes to the heart of credibility.


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[aqc888] 15/7/2021 09:11

Huge amount of selling going on. Not quite sure how the share price is holding up so well. Clearly a lot of investors fed up with management playing games with expectations constantly.

[b00mb0y] 15/7/2021 09:05

I’ve also read the same over on lse, aqc888. 👍

[aqc888] 15/7/2021 08:44

Bit of a disappointing start to the day. When the print edition comes out on the weekend and people get a chance to read it over the weekend I’d expect to see it go up a bit more. Surprised not to see it hit 20p yet. I think there are a lot of frustrated holders who have been waiting to get rid of Kromek who are taking the chance to get out now, right at the time things are looking the most hopeful. You can see one long term apparent largish holder on the lse Kromek chat who’s exiting, with 33mick of course abusing him over his questioning of Kromeks managements competence.

[robsy2] 15/7/2021 08:39

Thanks for the write up Doug. This looks like it may be getting some traction now.

[strategicinvestor2] 15/7/2021 08:36

Yes a few impatient holders sell ahead of the value coming out. People are beginning to understand the variety of world beating tech here and next few months likely to be very interesting.

[wigwammer] 15/7/2021 08:17

Excited by the move, then saw it was just a simon thompson ramp. As you were :)

[ch1ck] 15/7/2021 08:12

So glad experience has paid off ignoring the fall yesterday and buying in.I have always wondered why good news and strong results results in a fall in the price.Maybe it just flushes outs the last of the sellers

[aqc888] 14/7/2021 20:54

Last interesting tip Simon Thompson made of mine was Metal Tiger 21p, which surged 20% in the morning after. His target was 33p. It reached 32p before falling back. I suspect based on this “strong buy” and unusually strong tip recommendation with “28p and well beyond” tip - this will go up significantly in the morning. It will then be in Fridays print edition. The price will continuously rise for a few days and touch 28p. I’ve put a buy order in for tomorrow to increase my holding by 30% with an 18.5p limit.

Last tip he made on Kromek on the 14/1 at 13.45p. Next day it went to 16.9p following week 23.5p. This time there will be a stronger reaction.

[b00mb0y] 14/7/2021 20:52

@ Abbynat. “Perhaps you wanted to hear contracts signed for billions and made yesterday!”
Now wouldn’t that have been nice! Don’t suppose your invested here are you? Just as well. Bye bye.

[strategicinvestor2] 14/7/2021 20:27

Is looking very exciting here. Multiple forecasts of share price heading towards 30p in short term. When more people study the potential here with risks diversified across various world leading products this could go anywhere. I suspect we may see short term small move to 20p ahead of streams of news in coming months. Like that the company doesn’t rush out news until there are material things to communicate to stakeholders. Anyone got targets for this one and on what basis ? GLA

[aqc888] 14/7/2021 19:47

Thank you Simon Thompson!!!!

[aqc888] 14/7/2021 19:47

Hallelujah!!!!!!!!!!! STRONG BUY 28p and WELL BEYOND

This will boom in the morning!

[33mick] 14/7/2021 18:06

Cheers toptomcat

July 14, 2021
By Simon Thompson

"Backing a tech winner in the fight against Covid-19
A radiation detection technology company focused on the medical, security screening and nuclear markets is planning a commercial roll-out of its Covid-19 bio-security pathogen detectors. It is winning multiple contracts in other parts of the business, too."

Backing a tech winner in the fight against Covid-19
A radiation detection technology company focused on the medical, security screening and nuclear markets is planning a commercial roll-out of its Covid-19 bio-security pathogen detectors. It is winning multiple contracts in other parts of the business, too.

Order book covers 75 per cent of revenue estimates for 2021/22 financial year.
Successful pilot of Covid-19 pathogen detectors in UK airports, schools and retail outlets ahead of commercial roll-out.
Cutting edge CZT detectors being deployed in medical imaging scanners in multiple countries.
£20m worth of nuclear sector revenue in active procurement that could be delivered this year.

Kromek (KMK:15.75p), a Sedgefield-based radiation detection technology company focused on the medical, security screening and nuclear markets, has announced a raft of contract wins worth over £0.75m alongside annual results. The directors also revealed that the current order book covers 75 per cent of analysts’ revenue estimates for the 2021/22 financial year which point towards turnover rising from £10.4m to £15m.

Moreover, house broker Cenkos Securities expects gross margins to rise from 48 to 52 per cent, so with the benefit of a relatively fixed cost base last year’s Covid-19 impacted cash loss of £1.7m is forecast to produce a small adjusted cash profit. Paul Hill of Equity Development has similar estimates. It’s worth pointing out that forecasts don’t factor in any contribution from Kromek’s bio-security pathogen detectors which sample air and identify the presence of any biological pathogen including Covid-19.

The technology is based on Kromek’s work in developing a mobile bio-security system capable of detecting airborne pathogens for an agency of the US Department of Defence (DARPA). In the past month, DAPRA awarded Kromek a follow-on US$6m (£4.2m) contract to deliver an automated and fully mobile airborne pathogen detection system, and the company has been awarded a £349,000 contract from the UK Ministry of Defence. Chief executive Arnab Basu (pictured) says his company is in “serious discussions with multiple governments” and notes that “its unique set of IP isn’t reflected in the current valuation.” I concur, so much so that with a raft of positive news flow set to announced on multiple fronts in the coming months I expect the share price to re-rate markedly.

To quantify the size of the opportunity, Hill at Equity Development values the annual global market for the biological threat detection devices at £500m and believes that Kromek could win a 20 per cent share on a 25 per cent profit margin

[quepassa] 14/7/2021 18:03

You wanna read/remind yourselves what Simon Thomson wrote on 16th April 2020 about the Kromek ventilators and the 35p price target he then gave.

Both horrifically wide of the mark.

link herewith:-

hXXps://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/comment/2020/04/16/stock-picking-for-bear-market-gains/


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[toptomcat] 14/7/2021 17:40

Been following the conversation with interest today and also attended the results call this morning. Impressed with what I heard and I think Kromek have now finally reached a positive cornerstone. ST has just released an article with a STRONG Buy recommendation targeting April's highs of 28p and well beyond

[33mick] 14/7/2021 17:27

This really answers where the Covid detection units are at re testing, performance and validation.
With plans and conversations happening re manufacturing and Futher trails.

MOD, military and UK gov being up there at the top of the list I expect.

[quepassa] 14/7/2021 16:10

Doug,

Have searched around but can't find link to this morning's analyst presentation with questions. Can't find link/upload on Kromek's web-site. If anyone has it, please post link.

However, have listened to two other Kromek presentations this morning on YouTube.

The one with Proactive Investors and another one featuring an 11 minute presentation by CEO.


Neither of those mention any company figures whatsoever. Not the loss, not the revenues, not the net worth. How can you give an annual results overview and not mention actual performance??

More waffle about how well everything is doing and all the worn-out, threadbare, tacky jargon about ramping-up, good visibility and how rosy everything is in the garden.

What was gob-smacking is that the ventilators were glossed over and not mentioned a single time.

I'd like to hear the analyst presentation and will hope to find it as I want to listen to the FD talking rather than the usual media-interface but can also imagine with some of the questions raised that it may equally be suspended.

Do you have a link you can post?


ALL IMO. DYOR.
QP

[aqc888] 14/7/2021 15:45

If the CEO says the results are positive in interviews repeatedly - that suggests that he is in possession of the results.

If the CEO says the results are in the coming days - that suggests they are imminent.

Where are they?

The detector is a pretty big part of Kromeks offering to shareholders. He shouldn’t be playing games with the results. I expected them today and I’m getting very frustrated they are being withheld.

Its pretty condescending 33mick to suggest I don’t understand engineering well enough to have a view on the handling of the results

[33mick] 14/7/2021 14:35

AQC888 did you get to read the last Paul Hill Equity Development article?
It got missed by some as it came out on the same day the last ST Investor Chronicle update was released.
From memory it did say live trials/testing of prototypes were planned and thought to take a 'few' months which is reasonable ito my mind.
It was an extensive article and showed the other pro-types, vehicle mounted and such, the one in the airport wasn't shown as its an all new one ment for floor space in high footfall areas.
I'm not sure where you read/heard about trails from the beginning of the year...they only announced the UK innovate contract/project in Jan this year.
I don't share your feelings of being mislead by management at all.
Almost all the design engineers/ companies/manufacturing plants have been in someway restricted by remote working from home or delays with part supply (PCB boards/Chips mentioned this morning by Kromek)
I've been very impressed that they got those first units up and running.
But that's because my job is design of engineering products and systems and components, they've done very well in my book.