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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kromek Group Plc | KMK | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 5.85 | 08:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.85 | 5.85 | 5.85 | 5.85 | 5.85 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| PHARMACEUTICALS & BIOTECHNOLOGY |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 06/3/2025 14:08 by jaknife Cry baby cyberdyne1,"What's wrong with you JakNife?! Only the $37M deal has been factored in. The Company nor Cavendish know the supply side figures, how it will build up, or can speculate on them as yet. So to be clear this side of the deal has not be rolled into the forecasts, only the $37m part of the contract. Once a line of sight is known, the forecasts will substantially improve." I give up, what you appear to be saying is that the forecasts are wrong as they don't include all the hope and optimism that you've dreamt about every night since the Siemens deal was first announced. However, since they were updated by the house broker (Cavendish) on the day that the Siemens deal was announced, and they explicitly state that they have been updated to allow for the Siemens deal, then we can still state as a fact: At 5.85p, KMK still trades at a whopping 36.6x Kromek's 2027 fwd forecast EPS of 0.16p (*) Where * is the house broker's current best estimate but it doesn't include your latest wet dreams! JakNife |
Posted at 05/3/2025 16:58 by jaknife Cry baby cyberdyne1,Two weeks ago you posted: ==================== 19 Feb '25 - 10:17 - 7401 of 7412 Don’t write it off quite so quickly. I’m sure in a week or two we will be in the 8’s. ==================== KMK isn't "in the 8’s", in fact it's fallen 11.8% compared to two weeks ago. However, even at this price KMK trades on 37.5x 2027 fwd forecast EPS, which still makes it look expensive. I assume that you've dumped your KMK and exercised a stop loss? What else does one do when an investment thesis fails? Let it become a "long term investment" (*)? JakNife * - A short term investment that went wrong! |
Posted at 10/2/2025 07:22 by pilkersa The kmk story reminds me a bit of ftc which is now trading at over 200 mill mcap based on the major contract they got. Different sector, but the similarities are pretty similar in terms of a loss making company finally transitioning into profit and a bright future. I see no reason why kmk mcap cant increase to a similar level. |
Posted at 06/2/2025 01:15 by b00mb0y I concur, jaknife.I would think, though I don’t know, that cyberdyne1 has only recently bought in on KMK since the RNS and if so, then he/she is down already. He/she is averaging down as the price drops awaiting for that big jump. Fair play. I’ve done exactly the same since IPO (13 years) and as of today I need at least a 200% increase from here for breakeven. All long term holders have endured the fantastic KMK RNS’s since the IPO only to see their investment consistently decline. The share price trend line since IPO confirms that. I, along with any of the other LTH’s that are left, am only hoping that this time is going to be the turnaround that has been so long in coming. Fingers, toes and everything else are crossed but I can not hold my breath. Just saying. |
Posted at 01/2/2025 13:22 by jaknife Z1CO,"You can post all you but the fact remains the company is undervalued going by this latest deal.They have only transferred just 15 furnaces to Siemens for $37.5m and still have a further 159 furnaces." On what basis? It's easy enough to throw out a wild claim but you need to back it up with actual investment figures! At 6.4p (£41.1m market cap - 641.5m shares in issues): 1. KMK trades at 4.2 x tangible net assets of just £9.9m! 2. KMK trades at 40 x 2027 forward earnings (as per the house broker) 3. It's on a dividend yield of 0% (Kromek has never paid a dividend as it's made a loss every since it was listed) There's not a single metric that suggests KMK is "cheap", rather it's ridiculously expensive and a stinker of a loss-maker. The siemens deal represents a last ditch desperate deal to save it from insolvency, otherwise: * With first half losses of £5.7m, achieved on trivial revenues of a mere £3.7m * and with net debt of £11.7m at 31 Oct that has since increased materially beyond that Kromek would have needed a huge placing to save it and to be able to continue to pay the rewards for failure that the current directors enjoy. Open your eyes, smell the coffee and engage that brain. It's a dog! JakNife |
Posted at 01/2/2025 11:55 by jaknife pilkers,"With the siemens contract now in place valued only slightly below the current market cap this now derisks kmk as a takeover target." What a load of complete nonsense. Have you read the background in the posts above? Kromek did a $58m deal with Siemens back in January 2019: 1. They weren't a takeover target then and weren't taken over in any of the following six years. 2. In 2020, the year immediately after the big deal, Kromek reported its largest net loss out of all of the losses that it's reported in the last six years Year Loss2019 £0.62020 £16.52021 £5.42022 £4.92023 £6.12024 £3.3 Kromek has reported a loss *EVERY* year that it's been listed which means it reported losses in *EVERY* year following the last deal with Siemens. 3. Get your hands on the Cavendish forecasts. Cavendish are the house broker and yes, they do forecast a profit for the current fiscal year. But can you see what happens in the years after? Year PBT (forecast) EPS (p)2025 £4.9 0.772026 £2.1 0.342027 £1.0 0.16 Cavendish forecast that a profit is made from the initial sale but that profit then materially tails off. I would bet money that Cavendish have thrown a bit of optimism into their 2026 and 2027 numbers and that actually those years will return to form and be loss-making ones. Summary The Siemens deal is described as a "four-year" deal and the house broker, Cavendish, has adjusted its forecasts to predict TOTAL profits (from *ALL* business inc Siemens) over the next three years of £8m, of which a big chunk of those profits are one-off in 2025 and 2026. Looking at the closing share price of 6.4p, and Cavendish's 2027 EPS forecast of 0.16p, KMK is trading on a forward EPS of 40x!!!!! It's not cheap by a long long way. Retail punters have got far too excited about Kromek and its deal with Siemens. The reality is that its main importance to Kromek is that it has saved it from insolvency. Without this deal Kromek was running out of cash fast and would have needed a rescue placing. As it is, Cavendish forecast closing net cash for Kromek of just £1.8m as at April 2025. It's not a big number and it probably won't be long before KMK is back in debt once again! Now you know why so many have been selling heavily into the recent share price excitement! JakNife |
Posted at 31/1/2025 13:27 by jaknife Reabank,Siemens is an existing customer, they've been involved with KMK for ages. There was much speculation that this contract, for example, was Siemens: And given the CEO's previous involvement it always made sense. It would also make sense that that deal is getting to the end of its terms and needs to be replaced by a new one. Notice how that deal was announced with a fan-fare "expected to be worth a minimum of $58.1m over a seven-year period"? Management are always quick to announce contract wins but: A. Those contracts have NEVER been profitable (KMK has been loss-making since it first listed in Oct 2013), and B. Management are quick to announce contract wins but NEVER announce the contract losses. Total revenue over the last 5.5 years has been £76m (c. $95m). Assuming uniformity of the original contract then Siemens have been 50% of KMK's business for those 5.5 years. If Siemens are basically buying everything that they need to replace KMK and make CZT detectors themselves then the business that's left is half the size of what it was. KMK has been hopelessly loss-making ever since it listed, so a "50% of KMK" business is going to be even more hopelessly loss-making! JakNife |
Posted at 31/1/2025 06:42 by dannymaz89 #KMKKromek in simple terms, they are the only global commercial producer of "cadmium zinc telluride", with this they've cornered 2 markets:Medical imaging: "There are 4 Tier 1 OEM's in SPECT and CT scanning. Seimens, GE Healthcare, Canon and Phillips. They control 85% of a $8bn+ p.a market. CZT is recognised as key to SPECT and CT future by the OEMs."Military: They have deals with UK, USA and Asian governments in this space and recently got selected as a supplier under a government framework total pot size £380m (uk only)"Kromek selected as a supplier under the UK Government's Radiological Nuclear Detection Framework"KMK are the only independent supplier left capable of producing commercial scale CZT. Which means everyone else has to deal with them. |
Posted at 31/1/2025 06:27 by dannymaz89 There are 4 Tier 1 OEM's in SPECT and CT scanning. Seimens, GE Healthcare, Canon and Phillips. They control 85% of a $8bn+ p.a market. CZT is recognised as key to SPECT and CT future by the OEMs. 3 of the 4 OEM's have been have acquired supply chain of CZT. 3 acquisitions of CZT manafacturers. The latest was the acquisition by Canon of Redlen Technologies in 2021 (paid $270m for 85%). GE launched their first CZT product in 2018, Siemens launched their first CZT product in 2021. Canon has indicated ints intention to launch between 2022-2025. It is clear that the market is moving towards using CZT detectors in CT and SPECT imaging. KMK are the only independent supplier left capable of producing commercial scale CZT. Which means everyone else has to deal with them. KMK did their first deal for CZT supply in 2019. 7yr supply agreement with Tier 2 Spectrum Dynamics. $58m over life of contract. The second deal was with the remaining tier 1 OEM (which by deduction is with Phillips) in 2023. Phillips have 20% of the CT market at around $1.3bn p.a. Assuming a 100% conversion (this would take many years) to CZT detectors would mean a potential market for KMK of $300m-$400m p.a. And today we see a deal with Siemens.....the story continues to build and this deal puts potential funding worries in the rear view mirror. IMO a good deal that deserves more recognition today. |
Posted at 30/1/2025 13:03 by jaknife The results are awful.P&L 1. Revenue is down 48.2%! Can anyone point to the RNS where Kromek warned that revenues were going to drop materially? I can see loads of RNSs about new contracts but there's not one warning that contracts have been lost or that revenue is going to fall materially. 2. Costs are up! How on earth can distribution costs be up when revenue has nearly halved? That suggests 100% inflation in distribution costs!?!?! Why are Admin expenses up 8%? 3. Costs hidden in the P&L Note that a further £2.2m of costs have been capitalised directly to the cash flow statement 4. Total loss of £8.9m for the first six month of the year if you include the capitalised costs. Is the company on track for a full-year loss of £18m? Balance Sheet 1. Tangible net assets are just £8.6m, cf the market cap at pixel (6.75p share price) is £43.3m! 2. Why are inventories so high at £11.1m when H1 cost of sales was just £1.6m? On the face of it they're carrying the equivalent of 3.5 years' worth of stock?!?! Have they got a problem with excess stock or stock that needs to be written off? 3. Why are trade and receivables so high at £9.3m? H1 revenue was only £3.6m! That must means that invoices issued a year ago still haven't been paid? Have they got a problem with customers not paying them? 4. Net debt as at 31 October was £11.7m. They signed a loan agreement around about that date, what is net debt today? Note 14 to the accounts shows that a further £1m loan was required since October Cash Flow Note 10 show the normal cash flow statement. There's a large swing in working capital that has been favourable to KMK. That looks like a one-off that can't be repeated. The Siemens Deal 1. The interims note: ”the first installment of $25.0m to be received in the current financial year, of which a material amount will be recognised as revenue” Why only “a material amount”, why not all of it? 2. They also note "The initial $25.0m payment from Siemens Healthineers will be used to support the delivery of various milestones under the agreements,” What are the costs associated with the Siemens deal? KMK’s costs of sales is 43% of revenue (ie the gross profit margin is 57%). So should we assume that the cost of sales for the Siemens deal is 43% of $25m? If so then gross profit would be just $14.25m, which is £11.5m in sterling terms, which is only just enough to pay off the debt!!! Conclusion Yet again Kromek’s CEO has demonstrated that he is an untrustworthy crook. He publishes RNSs left right and centre telling shareholders about contract wins but doesn’t provide *ANY* information about contract losses and doesn’t bother to warn when revenues fall off of a cliff. Revenues are dwarfed by enormous administration expenses and further costs are hidden in the cash flow statement and no details are given about the costs associated with the $25m due from Siemens this year, leaving shareholders to fill in the gaps on what the net amount might be. Shareholders have got carried away with a one-off deal. Six months from now, after the normal cycle of excessive costs (including rewards for failure to the directors) the balance sheet will likely have improved marginally to perhaps £13m (net tangible assets), which would be 2p a share – a much more reasonable price given the dishonesty that management displays. JakNife |
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