Kier Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 17:40

Good Lombard article on FT entitled. “Kier investors get that sinking feeling as they smell a Carillion.”

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 17:39

Oh dear. Really? Some real idiots on ADVFN.

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 17:14

Getting, I know that neither you or I lose any sleep about the stupid and uninformed comments made about us. They really are quite funny.

I take comfort knowing even Einstein had his critics

“Criticism of the theory of relativity of Albert Einstein was mainly expressed in the early years after its publication in the early twentieth century, on scientific, pseudoscientific, philosophical, or ideological bases. Though some of these criticisms had the support of reputable scientists, Einstein's theory of relativity is now accepted by the scientific community.”

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 16:57

ltcm1

I must admit that today’s release was worse than I thought. I fully expected a financial update before the strategy update and for it to be negative as I think I said recently. Best to get the bad news out as quickly as possible. The trouble is no one knows if this is the bad news or of it will come out in “drips and drabs”.

Davies has a huge task ahead of him but to my mind, such as it is, the signs are not good. Kier, or at least parts of it, could quickly be snapped up “for a song.” The previous CEO badly mismanaged the company and we have no idea how much pressure may have been put on the FD, but quite honestly the latter should go immediately.

The press is awful, and even house broker Peel Hunt is back peddling quickly, but still saying it’s a buy as it would.

[gettingrichslow] 03/6/2019 16:51

I did say this was for lemmings only!
I was told I was too thick to pass comment (by someone who could only get into Pontypridd Poly!)
I also pointed out that this is not a wise investment for someone whose "number one priority is to not lose any money" but was called clueless!
You can't help some people it would seem.

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 16:49

According to Citywire, Dealing in Woodford Equity Income has been suspended 'with immediate effect and until further notice' after a spike in redemptions from Neil Woodford's flagship fund.

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 16:45

Kier's main construction skill seems to be in turning everything to dust.

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 16:37

Only down 40%. Not too bad.

But don’t worry, there’s jam tomorrow!!!

[escapetohome] 03/6/2019 16:36

Oh dear Mr Woodford!

Have you not heard of the Con struction Industry?

Time to sell.

Im launching a Con struction bear fund. Even Con trarians will not buy!

You got sucked in .

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 16:05

Oh dear, brexit and getting, must be really stressed today having had to watch LFC lift the much deserved Champions' League trophy at the weekend.

I would happily lose my Kier investment twice over to see the looks on their ugly faces!

ROFLMAO!

YNWA

[gettingrichslow] 03/6/2019 15:55

"management action needs to be substantial" - no, really???
Stating the bleeding obvious or what?

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 15:38

Stop losses are for wimps.

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 15:38

From Citywire

“The news delivers as a further blow to its biggest investor, under-pressure fund manager Neil Woodford.

His Woodford Investment Management fund group is the company's largest single investor, holding 20% of the shares.

Kier is a 1.4% position in the flagship £3.7 billion Woodford Equity Income fund and a 2.6% holding in his £494 million Woodford Income Focus fund. The stock is meanwhile a top 10 holding in the £373 million Omnis Income & Growth fund he runs for national financial advice group Openwork.

Woodford has been steadily building his stake in the company since first investing in March last year with his Income Focus fund, later adding the stock to his Equity Income fund in August.

Since Woodford first invested, the shares have fallen by more than 80%, with the stock tumbling in November last year on a deeply-discounted rights issue. Revelations of an 'accounting error' leading to a higher debt forecast sparked a further slide in March.

Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said the scale of the share price fall was of little surprise given the investor jitters surrounding the sector.

'The spectre of collapsed outsourcer Carillion means when a rival or peer unveils a profit warning it generally carries greater weight,' he said.

'Coming hot on the heels of a botched rights issue, a change at the top and amid continuing pressure on the construction space, today's profit alert adds up to a pretty sorry picture with the costs of a turnaround programme also spiralling.'

Numis analyst Howard Seymour and Peel Hunt's Andrew Nussey, who had both rated the shares a 'buy', placed their recommendations under review on the news.

'Kier is operating in a negative news vacuum at present,' said Seymour. 'We move our recommendation to under review to reflect this, arguing that value does exist but management action to offset debt and profitability issues needs to be substantial as negative sentiment is affecting Kier's investor and industry standing.'”

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 15:34

From the Grauniad

“John Moore, a senior investment manager at Brewin Dolphin, said: “Kier is in a dark place. At the turn of the year the business set out its financials, trading performance and future plans as part of its unsuccessful rights issue, only to now say that this information was largely wrong. It has broken trust with investors, which does not bode well.

“Comparisons will be made with the likes of Carillion and, indeed, Kier has lots of complex long-term contracts and individual subsidiaries, which makes for an opaque situation where clarity and stability are desired. Where it goes from here is hard to say.”

Kier has been a beneficiary of the private finance initiative since the 1990s, along with other construction firms such as Carillion and Interserve. However, in recent years the sector has been tainted by a number of contract scandals and profit warnings, and Carillion’s collapse sparked worries that others would follow suit. Banks have become reluctant to lend to firms in the sector.

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 15:17

Last week I posted

“The problem here is that no-one knows what is true and what is not. A profits warning followed by an error in debt accounting doesn't give confidence. Plus a very small net profit on huge earnings, as you say, is problematic. And of course accounts are always backward looking, at least three months out of date, and open to financial engineering. With the FD, who many consider less than competent, departing in the near future it is impossible what know will come out next.

The business review will be interesting, but like very many turnaround situations this may fail. Also, with such a low market cap there is the possibility of a bid for part or the whole of the business. Kier Homes might be a valuable asset but would leave the rest which isn't as profitable, or in fact profitable at all.

Quite a quandary both for the CEO and investors.”

This is just simple logic and sadly the first para has come true today.

[wipo1] 03/6/2019 13:49

Do you not have a stop loss?

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 11:47

ltcm1 in reply to the question where did the £250 million go it was simply lost in working capital. The December 2018 balance sheet would have looked horrific without it. Looking back, Kier was using acquisitions to bring in working capital and turnover. May Gurney, Mouchel and McNicholas probably all had working capital benefits on acquisition. However to continue to keep the plates spinning you need to make continual acquisitions otherwise the working capital swings negative as it did in 2018 and seems to be accelerating negatively in the current year. Profit margins end up getting squeezed as Kier has to concentrate on getting paid for jobs ahead of maximising profitability. This is why ironically Kier would be better off buying something like Amey (on the right terms) perhaps with a cash dowry than making piecemeal disposals.

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 11:21

Correct. It's completely uninvestible because the accounts can't be relied upon and there is no visibility as to future profits ir cashflow even.

This Andrew Davies seems completely overwhelmed by the job. I mean by the time he concludes his strategic review Kier could be on the brink of Administration. He doesn't seem to be aware of the dire situation the company is in.

The guy should have taken decisions already, this is what he is paid to do.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 11:14

trident5

Touché.

Yes, Minerve can take some of his own medicine. :)

Just watch Burford because if Woodford redemptions accelerate, as I suspect they will do with news like this, he could start ditching BUR as he has with IMB over the last month or so.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 11:10

The biggest surprise today is the FPK programme costs at £15M more than planned. The board were quite clearly asked by an analyst whether the FPK costs would come in around £10M and they quite clearly and categorically said yes only a few months' ago.

As they say 'you can't do good business with bad people'.

Why keep him on for a few more months, get rid of the incompetent buffoon ASAP.


IMO & DYOR

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 11:06

If I have made an error, and I will not be able to tell you until few years hence, it will not be because I invested in Kier, it will be because I 'invested' in Bev Dew. The guy clearly hasn't got any control over his finances. He should not be in a position of such responsibility IMO. Perhaps running a PO would be more his cup of tea. ;)

IMO & DYOR

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 10:56

Today I am going to be placing orders for AAPL, V, BA and LMT stock. All stocks with a durable competitive advantage and strong cashflows. Have fun with Kier Group Minerve!

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 10:52

Minerve a simple question in all sincerity.

You have based your investment on a through reading of the accounts which led you to conclude the working capital position was set to improve substantially.

The company have now admitted the accounts were infact wrong and the net debt is much higher than they stated.

On the back of this why aren't you selling now???

Another question to Minerve or anyone. What has happened to the £250m raised just five months ago??? Where has this money gone???

[buywell3] 03/6/2019 10:45

Charts you see … very good they are


buywell3

9 Dec '18 - 23:18 - 1439 of 2444 Edit


Interestingly KIER historical chart support at 400p has just been challenged

The rapid drop on this chart looks alarming to say the least

In fact terminal might be another way of putting it for some

[buywell3] 03/6/2019 10:39

buywell did warn you



buywell3 - 09 Dec 2018 - 22:34:46 - 1437 of 2442
Kier Group 2005 - The Building Business - KIE

Kier is into PFI contacts

A reason probably for it's debt problem

Some BoD's like spending ... and getting debt on the balance sheet to do so is not a problem

If you have plenty of Government PFI contacts you are bullet proof ... some might have thought

Hence the present mess IMO

Problem is the public now realize that PFI's are costing the taxpayer a bomb.

Plus if a Labour Government gets in ... companies fairly heavily involved/exposed to PFI's are going to get well and truly rogered

The city of course is fully aware of what is going down ... hence the Kier share price chart nose dive