Kier Share Discussion Threads

[hammopj] 03/6/2019 10:39

£1.55??

[hammopj] 03/6/2019 10:39

Not sure where support level is coming...

[montyhedge] 03/6/2019 10:32

Those funds managers who took stock in the placing must be very unhappy, thats if they have not been given their P.45

[trident5] 03/6/2019 10:25

Hey Minerva - go and say hello to your fans on Bur - they'd love to hear more about your superior investment decisions - you could laugh at them too.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 10:17

What recovery? The market is pricing in bankruptcy now? Never invest in anything without a stable cashflow, you have payroll to cover and no income. That always ends badly.

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 10:15

It's a lot more suited to private ownership IMO. You can't pay out dividends every year if you are in building. This has caused the problem and they have ended up ratcheting up their volume in order to make enough profit to pay a dividend. But the knock on effect of this is their margin has been crushed plus their risk factor has increased.

I really can't see a happy ending here.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 10:15

I haven't lost anything yet. I don't plan to sell either. I have always said this a two year+ holding and I have used 1/3 of the money allocated to Kier.

Some people get way too excited and emotional on investing. If you are going to invest in a recovery play you need to be prepared for these things. If you can't stand the heat then go and find something 'safer'.

LOL

[gettingrichslow] 03/6/2019 10:14

this time it's different,
The thing with Minny is he goes on all these boards telling everyone he knows everything and telling virtually everyone else they're chimps, morons etc
Yet he has had a run of terrible investments that is rivalling Woodford now - you would struggle to do as badly if you tried. Very funny really!! It was only the other day he was telling everyone on here that he KNOWS he's right on Kier because he has 'read the accounts'!!!!

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 10:07

How much money you lost minerve is the real question?

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 10:04

Give it a rest numpty.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 10:03

Construction has no earnings, forget the cyclicality, what happens when a project is delayed and the payroll are standing around? That is the problem. It's a sector to avoid, you want predictable cashflow.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 10:02

Residential builders have always had poor quality earnings, poor in the sense that they are very cyclical, not the size.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 10:01

I never said there was a "durable competitive advantage" because this has never, and was never, a Buffett type holding.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:57

I used to own galliford try, but sold out around £15 when I realised construction stocks are garbage.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:56

So where is the durable competitive advantage with Kier Group? The BIGGER PROBLEM is the future cashflows, which almost collapse when a project is delayed.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 09:54

If you are going to pretend to be a Buffett disciple it is "durable competitive advantage".

LOL

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:52

Everything in investment comes down to competitive advantage and future cashflow. If a company doesn't have those 2 things, it's not an investment. Where is the cashflow in construction? Where is the competitive advantage? Look at boeing, plane backorders for 7 years and only airbus as competition. That is the kind of company you want to own!

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 09:50

Unlucky Minerve, at least you went into it with your eyes open, the discussion board did serve a purpose in that respect, both sides of the argument were aired.

I don't expect them to survive personally because IMO the business model is fundamentally flawed.

[gettingrichslow] 03/6/2019 09:47

Minny, but didn't you say "my number one priority is to not lose money"?

What happened??

This is going down the pan.

And you still haven't responded to my post that showed how, if this is only 2% of your portfolio, then your portfolio must be worth north of £32 million?

Admit it, you've lost over £100k here haven't you??

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:40

Probably go down further, sorry for the shareholders, these are not investments, especially anything in construction. Bunch of guys on payroll standing around doing nothing, while delay after delay means no money comes in.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:38

woodford is cursed, anything he owns collapses.

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 09:37

Sharetrader, you have to look at the whole balance sheet not just the massaged reporting period end figure for bank debt. Kier had £1.4 billion of trade creditors and contract liabilities at the end of 2018. The monthly net debt figures show much higher debt than the reported balance sheets do. Auditors will look at Kier's ability to continue in business with enough working capital for the next 12 months. It seems from today's RNS that June is witnessing cash flowing out the business. The CEO has a big problem to deal with.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 09:28

I bet Woodford is having fun this morning.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 09:27

sharetrader

Any bad news is going to be jumped on by the swarm of shorters in this stock. That's obvious. If you are here for the long-term then be prepared for very large share price swings and the possibility of a rights issue. If you plan for such events it isn't a shock when it happens.

You are right on the debt, but as I said before, this still really is a play on the working capital flow.