Kier Share Discussion Threads

[brexitplus] 25/5/2019 21:42

Hsduk

I think you mean a new CEO.

[hsduk101] 25/5/2019 21:38

I think there is uncertainty in this company at the moment. With diving profits and a new owner. The new owner could look to steady the ship firstly. So that means profits will reduce as he looks to go back to basics. Therefore forecasts may not be met! Therefore the next financial results could lower them expectations. Would you not short this share in the short term?

[topvest] 25/5/2019 21:29

Yes, looks a value trap. Neil Woodford has been adding also which, on current form, has to be a massive red flag.

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 21:22

Well, it can only do three things: go up, go down and shift sideways. Unlike others I don't wet my pants when share prices move downwards, even significantly. You are talking to an OFEX veteran here. :)

[zicopele] 25/5/2019 21:16

Except the share price is falling Minerve.

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 20:52

Honestly, you have to laugh at brexitplus comments.

What an idiot!

ROFLMAO!

I mean, come on, the name tells you all you need to know!

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 20:43

@ltcm1

I think you should have learned by now that I don't really care about your opinion. Why should I? You are not in possession of the full facts.

The brothers need some education.


@brexitplus

"Some people seem to think that high revenue means profit"

Such as who?

[brexitplus] 25/5/2019 18:37

Ltcm

I tend to agree. Some people seem to think that high revenue means profit, which as WE know is a false assumption. And with the wafer thin margins Kier operates with any hiccup will be amplified in the market.

The article I posted a few days ago about the commercial managers and project managers disagreeing suggests financial engineering, a possible additional profits warning, and probably more debt. Rights issue probably not on after the low (38%) take up earlier.

[ltcm1] 25/5/2019 18:18

Kier will suffer the perfect storm this summer of:

1) Govt departmental paralysis leading to a drop off of new work

2) Slowdown in the residential homes market leading to rising stock levels

3) mark downs in the office shops commercial sector


They will then do a Capita and launch the deeply discounted this will fix everything rights issue.

The main thing I see Kier building currently is a mountain of debt!!!

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 16:36

"Kier wins loads of contracts - it's just making a real net profit on them that it finds difficult."

Sure, that goes without saying.

Tax-payers still believe in private efficiency peeps.

When will the knuckle-draggers realise you don't get something for nothing.

[kangaroo joe] 25/5/2019 16:24

Kier wins loads of contracts - it's just making a real net profit on them that it finds difficult. New CEO will kitchen sink the bad and really bad and so on so he can make himself look brilliant when it gets a bit better. Classic recovery play - market will lap it up within 2 years and short memories etc. When do I top up? At £1.65 ish?

[hsduk101] 25/5/2019 15:43

So your telling me that 690 million "we" spent on hs2 is now a waste? Cos if it doesnt happen then nobody will buy the land at the extortionate rate the government did. So "we" will lose 400m approx of our tax papers money?!

Classic nitwit share case this buy high sell low 🤦‍a94;️

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 14:33

According to data gathered by the Builders’ Conference, in 2018 Kier won 171 construction contracts, with a total combined value of £2.8bn.

It has maintained that momentum into 2019 and started out on course to exceed its 2018 haul. ➡️ In the first two months of 2019 Kier has already won £1.4bn worth of new construction business from 67 different contracts. ⬅️

In January 2019 Kier won 22 jobs. And then in February it signed another 45. The largest is a £300m new build, mixed use development at Blossom Street in east London for British Land.

- Construction News


Yeah, HS2 helps, but it is neither the beginning or end of Kier, and what isn't spent on HS2 if cancelled will most likely be spent elsewhere. If Corbyn gets in we could see lots of hospitals, schools, roads and prisons etc.. etc..

Come on, some of you can do better, much better. ;)

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 14:26

Ref Sunk Cost Fallacy:

I laugh at the chimps who talk about sunk cost fallacy yet they are doing it all the time with their 'investing'. Listen, the share owes you nothing, remember that. LOL

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 14:25

The UK chiefs of HSBC Bank and Virgin Money are among more than 100 business leaders who have demanded the government commit to building the full HS2 rail line between London and northern England.

“As leading employers, we expect the project to deliver £92bn in benefits as well as 500,000 new jobs and, crucially, 90,000 new homes by the time it is completed in 2033.”

- FT yesterday

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 14:23

That's the end of my conversation with the chimps for a week or two. Better things to do with my time.

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 14:22

My thinking is clear. It is you who is fussy. I have an investment plan and thesis, I've used it for decades, and it works, I know why it works. That is why my net-worth is significantly higher than yours will ever be.

Here is some advice: concentrate on your game because it obviously needs some improvement. Or, even better, stick to you day job. You haven't got the general knowledge, or time, to be good at this game.

[gettingrichslow] 25/5/2019 13:02

Minny, try answering those 4 questions! You can do it if you try, it will help untangle your fuzzy thinking.

Jonwig, spot on - the sunk cost fallacy trait is of course by politicians not wanting to take the short-term fallout of cancellation, even if it's clearly the right thing to do for the long term.

[ltcm1] 25/5/2019 13:01

gettingrichslow - about point 4. What do you think the impact would be on the SP?

Perhaps Kier would be generously compensated were HS2 put on hold???

I am not meaning to do down Kier and any HS2 opinions are not neccessarily my own.

I am just making the point there must be serious doubts about HS2 happening as it is not politically popular, I don't think Labour would take it forward either.

Power to the people!

[brexitplus] 25/5/2019 12:45

Getting

I agree about HS2. Waste of money.

Didn’t the idiot Labour government think up HS2?

[jonwig] 25/5/2019 12:44

@ hsduk - the current sunk cost of HS2 is ~£3bn, the end total is estimated at ~£90bn. (Plus overruns.) The sunk cost fallacy that "we can't stop now" is very prevalent in government thinking and planning.

This is probably the best article I've read on the subject, and includes the strong connectivity argument:



HS2 is a big part of Kier's operations, both in JVs and in picking up Carillion's contracts. Given their thin margins, it might be better for them not to carry on, but be compensated by HMG!

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 12:43

Hello? Hello? Anyone at home?

Who said I was in profit here?

I'm not, but I really don't expect to be.

You would have to be a complete 'loon' to think you would buy at the lowest point every time you invested.

Honestly, I'm shocked at the level of intelligence of these threads. It truly is poor.

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 12:37

brexitplus - another wasted birth (LOL) out of his depth. ;)

[minerve 2] 25/5/2019 12:36

getting

Stick to your day job. You are impotent here and out of your depth.