Kier Share Discussion Threads

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:52

Everything in investment comes down to competitive advantage and future cashflow. If a company doesn't have those 2 things, it's not an investment. Where is the cashflow in construction? Where is the competitive advantage? Look at boeing, plane backorders for 7 years and only airbus as competition. That is the kind of company you want to own!

[ltcm1] 03/6/2019 09:50

Unlucky Minerve, at least you went into it with your eyes open, the discussion board did serve a purpose in that respect, both sides of the argument were aired.

I don't expect them to survive personally because IMO the business model is fundamentally flawed.

[gettingrichslow] 03/6/2019 09:47

Minny, but didn't you say "my number one priority is to not lose money"?

What happened??

This is going down the pan.

And you still haven't responded to my post that showed how, if this is only 2% of your portfolio, then your portfolio must be worth north of £32 million?

Admit it, you've lost over £100k here haven't you??

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:40

Probably go down further, sorry for the shareholders, these are not investments, especially anything in construction. Bunch of guys on payroll standing around doing nothing, while delay after delay means no money comes in.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 09:38

woodford is cursed, anything he owns collapses.

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 09:37

Sharetrader, you have to look at the whole balance sheet not just the massaged reporting period end figure for bank debt. Kier had £1.4 billion of trade creditors and contract liabilities at the end of 2018. The monthly net debt figures show much higher debt than the reported balance sheets do. Auditors will look at Kier's ability to continue in business with enough working capital for the next 12 months. It seems from today's RNS that June is witnessing cash flowing out the business. The CEO has a big problem to deal with.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 09:28

I bet Woodford is having fun this morning.

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 09:27

sharetrader

Any bad news is going to be jumped on by the swarm of shorters in this stock. That's obvious. If you are here for the long-term then be prepared for very large share price swings and the possibility of a rights issue. If you plan for such events it isn't a shock when it happens.

You are right on the debt, but as I said before, this still really is a play on the working capital flow.

[sharetradergray] 03/6/2019 09:11

Why cant the accounts be signed off with a small amount of debt they were trying to be net cash they cant be too far away! Business can have debt and get there accounts signed off so im not really sure what your saying

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 09:03

No-one is going to bid for Kier. The balance sheet at the end of December 2018 showed negative net tangible assets and without growth in revenue the cashflow is negative. The ceo has to stabilize the business and maintain the confidence of customers and subcontractors. He can make a few disposals on the fringes and run down the housing landbank but the shareprice around 165p seems to be agreeing with me that Kier needs to raise more equity. Reading the statement regarding the net monthly debt figure being adversely affected by the likely 30th June 2019 figure, the cash is currently haemorrhaging out of the business. The auditors won't be happy to sign the accounts off as a going concern without the balance sheet somehow being strengthened and liquidity improved.

[porsche1945] 03/6/2019 09:02

Minerve, hows it going with this then??

[bookbroker] 03/6/2019 08:54

Incredible that this has lost over 90% of its value since 2014! Not quite a CLLN., but alarmingly close!

[minerve 2] 03/6/2019 08:53

Kitchen sinking - as to be expected.

[bookbroker] 03/6/2019 08:51

This time, that is a generalisation, it is how the companies are operated, and how they account for the projects and potential delays to completion. What they are not doing is incorporating a level of risk regarding all eventualities, and are tendering a far too competitive bid process. With the problems now apparent in pretty much every civil engineering project concerning timing and cost over-runs, the companies involved have finally woken up to the fact that the risk should be taken equally by both sides, contractor and submitter. Otherwise why should any company take on the role of delivering the goods, at this rate there will be too few operators left to fulfil these projects!

[blueball] 03/6/2019 08:44

Probably worth about 50 p.

[kinwah] 03/6/2019 08:39

The best strategic move for Kier could be to buy Amey which Ferrovial are desperate to sell. Potentially it could bring in more cash than the purchase price and merging the companies could allow substantial cost savings in overheads. I don't know how the CMA would react as there would be a reduction in competition in certain areas but it would be better for customers to have one stronger united company than two struggling with debt and legacy issues.

[sharetradergray] 03/6/2019 08:39

My Guess is that Kier will get a bid for a buy out likely candidates Bovis homes who tried to go for G Try the other week.

Woodford and SLA will not accept circa £2.00 a share and likely this will start the rebound. Kier made £160 million gross profit last year, 25M less this FY still makes the group generate £135M, big issue here is thats less than 3% ROCE basied on the groups current turnover.

This could still be a recovery share there making money, companies can have some debt, debt is being used like a dirty word here they just need to manage margins and increase there ROCE.

[this_time_its_different] 03/6/2019 08:29

never buy construction shares, galliford try, kier group, balfour betty, they are just as bad as each other. Quickest way to lose your shirt with these lot, worth a punt only if the shares are below £1 I guess.

[brexitplus] 03/6/2019 08:14

“Legacy issues” sounds worrying. No wonder the FD is going. Big clear out coming. Currently lost over 50% of the rights issue price which was only 38% taken up.

[escapetohome] 03/6/2019 08:03

Con struction - get out of the industry.

[sharetradergray] 03/6/2019 07:56

TRADING UPDATE:

Today Kier Group has issued an announcement to its investors. This covers three topics: our latest trading commentary and updates on the Future Proofing Kier (FPK) programme and the Strategic Review which I launched in April.

Trading update

In the first half of the current financial year, the Group saw a reduction in revenue in some of its key market sectors. Today, we have confirmed that this trend has continued in the second half with volume pressure within the Highways, Utilities and Housing Maintenance businesses.

In addition, whilst continuing to perform well with growth in its order book during this financial year, the Buildings business’ revenue for this financial year is expected to be lower than previously forecast.

As a result, we now expect that Group revenue for this year will be broadly in line with last year and revised guidance is being provided today to our investors on revenue, operating profit and net debt for this financial year.

Future Proofing Kier (FPK) programme

Since joining in April, I have undertaken reviews of each of our business streams and have audited the FPK programme into which we need to inject new pace and focus, as highlighted in my recent employee video. You will recall FPK is designed to help us to reduce our cost base and become more efficient. This acceleration of action will result in additional cost being incurred in this financial year which we have also today updated our investors on. However, importantly, acceleration of the programme will enable us to gain the benefit in future years.

Strategic Review

On 15 April 2019, I announced a Strategic Review of the Group focused on simplifying the Group, improving our cashflow and reducing net debt. This review is making progress and today I have confirmed the conclusions of that review will be announced on 30 July 2019.

Today’s announcement, which is classed in the eyes of our investors as a profit warning, is disappointing. We have quite simply not delivered what the market expects of us. We have today reset those market expectations.

It is important the Group moves forward and learns from the legacy issues which have contributed to today’s announcement. I believe we are taking the necessary actions to restore our credibility with our investors and, very importantly, our clients. We remain a profitable company, with many good businesses.

But there is a lot of work to do in the coming months and, as set out in my recent video, this will require focus and some difficult decisions across the Group. I shall keep you updated as we move forward. I look forward to your support.