Kier Share Discussion Threads

[nomdeplume] 02/6/2019 10:29

Breaking News: Zicopele is the new FO! How else would he know that as a fact.

[zicopele] 01/6/2019 15:37

Times change Muckshifter. Kier head office systematically overstates the numbers.

[muckshifter] 01/6/2019 10:57

Factually, in my days as a project manager on major civils projects, the principle surveyor (head office) was more cautious than me and my site QS when it came to forecasting, and he never had any hand in what we put into the valuation, that was my decision, on what in one case was a very difficult job which I believe held the company record for size of loss in a month. So, the question is, imo, was the dispute with HO about forecasts or valuations, and can anything said by an outsider answer that question.

If the principle surveyor was presenting optimistic forecasts to the board, presumably he/she would be applying for jobs elsewhere at the same time as his/her future would be very limited. On the other hand, if there were huge claims pending on a contract, it would be of serious concern to a principle surveyor if the "claim" was understated in an interim valuation.

[kinwah] 01/6/2019 09:45

It was a surprise to see my quote in the Times yesterday. I think it reflects the very high quality of discussion on this board. We know already that companies read what's posted on these boards but now we also know financial journalists look to them for inspiration. GLA

[nomdeplume] 31/5/2019 20:35

The point is that we do not know. What we do know is that the new CEO and presumably the new FO are conducting a review. I certainly hope he is looking under a few of those proverbial carpets and ruffing a few feathers. Now, that is my opinion and others are welcome to theirs, but they are opinions, yours mine and others, they are not facts.

[brexitplus] 31/5/2019 17:05

Nomdeplume

The fact is project managers are disagreeing with commercial managers and leaving. It is very unlikely to be trivial.

And I agree with zico that it is common practice in the industry.

[nomdeplume] 31/5/2019 17:02

Facts and opinions are different. Opinions should not be stated as though they are facts. Unless, of course, one is seeking to mislead.

[zicopele] 31/5/2019 15:34

Kier are systematically overstating profits on projects, not at a local level but at head office level.

The site guys decide to leave because when the bad news eventually hits, they will be accountable.

This happens all the time on projects. Difference here must be that the numbers are very big.

[brexitplus] 31/5/2019 13:06

Muckshifter

The original article pointed to project managers leaving because of the valuations. This is most likely nothing trivial or common practice.

[muckshifter] 31/5/2019 12:32

Minor disagreement between the client's engineer and the contractor's QS on the value of work done on a monthly basis, is not at all unusual as it is often a matter of judgement, but I doubt if that is what is the core of the "dispute" mentioned above.

Surely it is much more likely to refer to Kier putting in interim valuations of work done on major variations which the client decides not to certify, or just partially certifies, pending substantiation, which again is a fairly normal and painful process for a contractor.

[elcapital2018] 31/5/2019 12:17

is this going bust?

[ltcm1] 31/5/2019 10:55

Minerve the trouble is unless we don hard hats how can we know if Kier are booking work as complete when the customer seems to be claiming it isn't, which the note suggested may be happening???

Certainly we have seen this at Persimmon and Bovis and it always costs a lot more to fix than they say.

Regarding the JV's it isn't the debt that is the concern, it's the potential liability for defect. Perhaps Kier are not getting in enough income for the risks they are taking on these projects???

Perhaps the market is simply a lot more informed that we are and the market price is correct???

[brexitplus] 31/5/2019 10:11

From Investment Week - 23 CONSECUTIVE MONTHS OF REDEMPTIONS!!!

“Woodford Equity Income has seen its total assets fall by £560m to under £3.8bn in less than four weeks as investors exit Neil Woodford's flagship fund amid a sustained period of poor performance.

The rapidly shrinking fund, which has fallen by around two-thirds from its 2017 AUM peak of £10.2bn, has drawn the attention of investment heavyweights and regulators alike, according to the FT.

The £187m of withdrawals since the end of April primarily follow Morningstar's decision to downgrade the fund from "bronze" to "neutral" last week, with May becoming the 23rd consecutive month of redemptions.

About £373m of the monthly decline is attributed to the weak trading performance of the fund's underlying investment portfolio.

"It is why the fund is — and has been positioned for some time now — towards undervalued stocks woven into the very fabric of the UK economy. "

"This broader market malaise in UK-quoted domestic stocks contributed to the fund's underperformance over the past month. However, Neil continues to believe this area of the market, such as housebuilders and other consumer stocks, are profoundly undervalued and offer long-term potential returns," the spokesman added.

The star manager has therefore had to seek ways to rebalance his portfolio, such as listing some investments on the Guernsey stock exchange.

Woodford Equity Income is down 8.3% in May, while the FTSE All-Share index is down 2.5%”

[ltcm1] 31/5/2019 09:29

kinwah congratulations man!

[minerve 2] 31/5/2019 09:26

EdmondJ

Kuvari were just pointing out what good investors already knew. By-the-way, the debt on JV has no recourse to Kier so one has to consider the affect of no returns from the JV rather than the debt burden and the general concern created if a JV had problems. I think therefore it is disingenuous to treat the debt the same and throw it in a general multiple. Just another way for Kuvari to frighten the ignorant.

As I said before, Kuvari were fortuitous on the rights issue timing. The fact they were fortuitous added weight to their argument which damaged the rights issue.

[brexitplus] 31/5/2019 08:48

From DT

“Neil Woodford is turning up the heat on companies in his portfolios to prove their worth by putting themselves up for sale or listing.

The move comes as the star fund manager battles weak performance and attempts to stem the flood of investors pulling hundreds of millions of pounds from his funds.

Sources close to Mr Woodford say he believes his name is “toxic” as pressure mounts for him to turn around the fortunes of Woodford Investment Management.”

[gettingrichslow] 31/5/2019 08:18

B+, so The Times is directly quoting Kinwah (post 2359) from this discussion board??!!

[edmondj] 31/5/2019 08:15

Minerve,

I've no short position and don't short, I'm looking at Kier as to whether it represents a (fools?) recovery situation. The short position of 4.8% is well down on 14%-ish at the end of last year but interestingly Kuvari retain conviction to keep increasing theirs - and they called the rights issue' timing astutely. Thus a binary question whether their analysis is now awry or a pertinent red flag.

hxxps://shorttracker.co.uk/company/GB0004915632/

[brexitplus] 31/5/2019 07:51

From the Times

“Kier Group bounced more than 12 per cent after hitting its lowest level since 2000 at 260¼p on Wednesday. The FTSE 250 construction company has failed to recover since it shocked investors in December by launching a heavily discounted rights issue. Its biggest shareholder, Woodford Investment Management, was among investors to take part at 409p per share, and will be hurting from that decision.

Trading volumes in the stock yesterday were above-average, at 1.8 million compared with an average of about 800,000, suggesting that investors could see positives on the horizon. The improvement in the share price sparked debate on online trading forums yesterday. One punter wrote: “Kier may well prove to be a bargain of a lifetime but for many investors the relentless downward trend in the share price is a warning to stay well clear.” The shares closed up 32½p, or 12.5 per cent, at 292¾p.“

[minerve 2] 30/5/2019 22:49

ltcm1

Frankly that last comment is rubbish.

It was the banks that put an end to Carillion, not the shorters.

Anyway, two wrongs don't make a right. Tighter regulation and accountancy rules would prevent most of these problems from occurring and companies, if given a chance to recover, can do just that. Even Amazon had problems. We don't need shorters to tell us a company has problems.

Frankly if you are investing/shorting Kier then you should really be up-to-speed with the Kuvari stuff. It is 6 months out of date and I have spent much time in discussion with those at the FT over this. The timing of their presentation was fortuitous because it ended-up being a day before the rights issue which only came about because the supply chain was straining. If Carillion hadn't have caused fear - amplified by shorters - Kier may have avoided a rights issue.

But we are where we are.

If you agree shorting is a good idea let me know and you will be filtered. I struggle to maintain the desire to hold conversations with people who don't have morals and values that match with mine. I KNOW I am right. Sorry.

[ltcm1] 30/5/2019 22:20

Appreciate the post Edmondj.

[ltcm1] 30/5/2019 22:17

But with Carillion the shorters did everyone a good turn because the company wasn't naking money and was distorting the market with their lowball desperation bids. Had the shorters not rumbled them this farce would ahve gone on a few more years leading to most likely a very dramatic disorderly bust.

Unfortunately the same rumours persist about Kier, they seem to win nearly every contract they go for! And yet they have this tiny balance sheet by comparison with the scale of the work they do.

Maybe they are just very good at pricing and can make their size work, it just seems a bit unlikely to me, looks like they paid too much divi out and perhaps the profits never really existed once the tail end costs are accounted for.

[brexitplus] 30/5/2019 21:49

Interesting analysis by Kuvari.

[minerve 2] 30/5/2019 21:33

EdmondJ

I think you are about 6 months' behind. Didn't your short go well today? :)