Kier Share Discussion Threads

[ltcm1] 29/5/2019 19:05

I thought this was yielding 3% but then I saw that was the p/e :)

The yield is 19% here, how can the market get it so wrong and not see the value Woodford and Minerve have spotted???

I get it that markets do tend to overshoot both on tops and bottoms but here the decline has been fairly gentle and there aren't signs of capitulation as yet.

Experience tells us when a share declines in this manner they seldom bounce straight back, what you get more often is a flatline for quite a while if they do survive.

The other thing is even small cost incursions say £50m, are going to have a big effect on the share price.

[gettingrichslow] 29/5/2019 18:31

There's a lot of fear here then isn't there? Even the dunderheads, morons and chimps can see that? But value? Unlikely... fanboys only.

[minerve 2] 29/5/2019 17:32

SP action is driven by greed and fear. Value is driven by facts.

[ltcm1] 29/5/2019 17:29

Well I guess he is basing his buying decision on the value as he sees it of the company as a business, which is not impacted by the share price as such. At least in theory!

I suppose it is the unlocking of that value that will prompt more buying, not movement in the share price.

[minerve 2] 29/5/2019 17:27

At the moment no. Because I want to see what the CEO says after his review and I want to see what affects the circus in government is having on procurement.

I've bought shares which are, I believe, are good value. The fact that the shares are cheaper doesn't drive me to buy more. You shouldn't let the share price action influence your buy/sell decisions. It is your servant as and when required.

When I am happy that my original investment thesis is confirmed I will add.

Anyway, what's it to you what I buy and sell? This is one of 24 stocks I own.

[porsche1945] 29/5/2019 16:31

@minerve, I'll re phrase the Q'. As you have been banging on about the immense value locked up in kier ad nausem, then you must be a strong buyer at these new lows yes??

[eriktherock] 29/5/2019 15:29

Lod on the way

[ltcm1] 29/5/2019 12:37

Minerve what you have to understand about Brexit is there are two completely different groups voting for it.

If you are in parts of Wales or the North East smaller towns then there is a great fear there of losing jobs, sadly it is easy to see how they think Brexit will somehow defend these jobs. However the reality is these areas will suffer most from Brexit.

The people in other areas mostly accept we will be poorer for some time going forward but will have more control and soverignty as they see it.

What is evident is that Cities and University towns are growing but smaller towns and more remote areas are really starting to struggle in a big way. This is the real problem we have in the UK and globally.

[minerve 2] 29/5/2019 12:10

Porsche

I never average down. I only buy if I see value. What I paid previously is irrelevant. Is the share good value today or isn't it. Do you want to increase your risk or don't you. Averaging down is for chimps, that is not the same thing as finding out what your average buy-in price is: one is a poor objective, the other is review.

[porsche1945] 29/5/2019 12:06

...are you still averaging down minerve??

[ltcm1] 29/5/2019 11:21

It doesn't really inspire that the CEO here was also picked to head up Carillion! This Andrew Davies looks too average to me, only four years building experience too. Perhaps Carillion lined him up because they knew he was a 'soft touch', a continuity candidate to keep operation Gravy Train on the tracks for a few more years. Perhaps I am just seeing what I want to see though???

The other issue here is that on a demand and supply basis, there are now a lot more shares in circulation and investors showed their hand by not picking them up at the deeply discounted 400p. Also Woodford's 20% is a major roadblock as per other institutions, we have already seen Woodford wreck PFG and Stobart with his aggressive, loose cannon, maverick moves.

Even if there is screaming value here, if others don't see it the shares could be low for a long time yet.

[brexitplus] 29/5/2019 10:32

ltcm1

The problem here is that no-one knows what is true and what is not. A profits warning followed by an error in debt accounting doesn't give confidence. Plus a very small net profit on huge earnings, as you say, is problematic. And of course accounts are always backward looking, at least three months out of date, and open to financial engineering. With the FD, who many consider less than competent, departing in the near future it is impossible what know will come out next.

The business review will be interesting, but like very many turnaround situations this may fail. Also, with such a low market cap there is the possibility of a bid for part or the whole of the business. Kier Homes might be a valuable asset but would leave the rest which isn't as profitable, or in fact profitable at all.

Quite a quandary both for the CEO and investors.

[minerve 2] 29/5/2019 10:16

I don't pay much attention to share trends. It either has value or it doesn't. Trying to predict where the share price goes is a fool's game. You could watch it drift sideways for a year and assume the share price is stable and then it will fall. I think this is the whole problem with the market. We have too many chartists and tea readers, not enough investors who can read a set of accounts.

[ltcm1] 29/5/2019 10:10

Minerve you did a good job arguing the bull case last night.

I wouldn't argue with anything you say about Kier getting work, however the question is as ever are they going to make profits from it???

On the plus side surely Kier Homes would be an attractive business for someone and could be quite valuable. Do they have much of a land bank? Do they manufacture the houses themselves or is the manufacture outsourced?

On the negative side the five year downtrend indicates something is wrong at Kier in a very fundamental way, I'd like to see some stability on the share price and an upturn on rising volume before buying myself.

It is going to be a very interesting story here either way - GLA!

[brexitplus] 29/5/2019 10:05

Value trap. Wait for the next financials. Another dividend cut on the way.

[russ1983] 29/5/2019 10:03

the P/E ratio is below 2.5....

[brexitplus] 29/5/2019 09:04

Time to average down!!!

[blueball] 29/5/2019 08:59

Stay short.

[eriktherock] 29/5/2019 08:56

Also, the fact that the market capitalization has reduced by 50% since the announcement of the new CEO appointment maybe indicates market sentiment towards the stock.

[eriktherock] 29/5/2019 08:54

Yes, year-end net debt against the ever reducing valuation is a biggy. Two monthly red candles below the the October 2008 Low is another indicator.

[gairich] 29/5/2019 08:52

Don't forget dunderheed's getting

[gettingrichslow] 29/5/2019 08:42

Down again. This has now halved in the last 2.5 months! Exactly as predicted by Zicopele, Brexitplus, Porsche and others. Strictly for lemmings and fanboys only...

[minerve 2] 28/5/2019 23:43

Be careful, you might upset the Brexiters with those type of comments. :)

I saw on FT markets live that analysts had an Article 50 revoke, in some form or another, at 60%.

[ltcm1] 28/5/2019 23:39

The one thing certain about Brexit is we won't be leaving WTO stylee on Haloween!

I don't have a viewpoint either way but no PM is going to risk losing a no confidence vote and a general election in order to secure a no deal.

There is a brilliant interview with Tony Blair by Adam Boulton on Sky news and he spells out exactly what the situation is. It is a straight choice between no deal and remain now, but in order to confirm it we will have to have a referendum on the choice.

Interestingly Nigel Farage has dismissed any chance of renegociation on his LBC show today, which Tony Blair said aswell, so it does seem to be coming down to a clear choice.

So the chances of remain are still quite high, I'm going 60% chance leave and 40% chance remain now. I think the no confidence issue changes a lot of things.