Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[longtallsally] 08/2/2024 15:28

75p would be nice let alone £6 ;)

[beeezzz] 08/2/2024 14:47

£6 hmm that would be nice!

[malt5565] 08/2/2024 12:20

Added yesterday. Held since dot com days end of last century @ £6!

[beermat1] 08/2/2024 12:03

FWIW, also added, Monday…

[amishp67] 08/2/2024 11:53

Same. Couldn't help but add a few more

[sweenoid] 08/2/2024 11:15

Good to see IQE involved here, I guess it was a no- brainer given their position at the core of the compound semiconductor cluster and ‘community’ in the UK



And



S

[crosswires] 08/2/2024 09:04

I agree Sweenoid, although the proof of the pudding will be at TU and earnings time. We have said in the past “how can IQE go wrong!” and they have!

Let’s hope, with the “A team” he’s brought in, that it’s different this time…

[sweenoid] 08/2/2024 07:50

EVERY company is reporting that AI is and is going to be an exponential source of future revenues and AI is impossible without Compound Semiconductors. The IQE management and ( now) experienced sales force would have to be more than incompetent not to benefit from AI and they aren’t 🙂
S

[guildedge] 07/2/2024 20:04

Thanks for that Provonar. Very good description of how the market works. Fingers crossed IQE specialities and production capabilities can help them bring changes to industry to make IQE a billion pound firm it should be.

[provonar] 07/2/2024 17:49

Guildedge,

The Infineon buy-out of GaN Systems was a Tier 1 producer purchasing a fabless CS design house. This would be similar to Tier 1 Win Semiconducters buying out Lumentum. None of these companies are involved in epitaxy at Tier 2, as far as I'm aware.

Both of these supply chains need a supply of epitaxial wafers from Tier 2 before they can build ICs at Tier 1. Yes, they could decide to vertically-integrate and absorb an epitaxy company - but that's a bit like asking why IQE doesn't buy out a mining company at Tier 3. It's all about being an expert in a specific niche within the supply chain. Plus, any purchaser of IQE would need to use all of the different epitaxy products that IQE currently produce - otherwise they would immediately throw-out/sell all the tools that didn't produce the desired epiwafers, which is obviously bad business.

Now in the epitaxy market there is about 2/3 of the epitaxy done in vertically-integrated companies. IQE have existed off the remaining 1/3 of the market which is the outsourced epitaxy production, generally involving fabless design houses and pure-play foundries (Tier 1 chip producers who don't design the chips they build).

Not only does Mr. Lemos want IQE to expand/maintain their market share of the outsourced epiwafer market, he also wants to go after the vertically-integrated part of the market, too - which was expressly stated at the CMD 2022. Effectively, he's trying to persuade the vertically-integrated CS producers that out-sourcing the epitaxy to a specialist like IQE is better for business: focused expertise, large production capacity, can operate globally, tool down-time is IQE's problem etc. However, this is a big challenge as a lot of companies will not want to give up an in-house capability to become dependent on one external supplier.

But coming back to Infineon, they look like part of the out-sourced market - they're a Tier 1 foundry, as far as I can see. Their annual report mentions front-end and back-end processing, which are Tier 1 processes for chip production. So they'll absolutely need to buy their CS epiwafers from someone, just as epiwafer manufacturers have to buy their mined raw materials from someone (glossing over the crystal-ingot growth process, of which IQE has two facilities).

So, Infineon will need to go to epiwafer suppliers in order to get the material inputs they need to create chips. They will want to go to multiple suppliers in order to have a diversity of supply. But if you have big order ramps due to a 'breakthrough' in demand, then you need to go to the big volume epiwafer manufacturers, like IQE. This is what the over-blown 'inflection point' talk is all about - whether it really occurs (which is looking more likely) and whether IQE can profitably capitalise on it, remains to be seen.

[guildedge] 06/2/2024 21:25

IQE issue in past has been having all these advanced Semiconductor products but the market was not adopting them or taking IQE seriously. Multi billion pound market and IQE was turning over less than 0.001% of this turnover? Apple turned over 383 billion dollars in 2023. Which means IQE parts were worth less than 30-40p a product? Selling screws for an expensive wardrobe. You need to make a lot of screws to make money and IQE has not had the volumes to do this.

Infineon acquired Gan Systems in March 2023 to make GAN parts. Looks like they are producing parts by themselves. We have had no update to say they are working closely with IQE as a partner but again maybe they are not allowed to say. They have admitted to likes of Apple and other industry players.

hxxps://www.semiconductor-today.com/news_items/2023/mar/infineon-030323.shtml
hxxps://gansystems.com/

You could flip this on it's head and say if IQE parts were must have then companies like Infineon would buy out IQE and stick their parts in all their products. 200m is throwaway money for these big firms. Of course Lemos will value at IQE at a billion plus if his plans work. Even then British government would likely refuse any sale of IQE. So maybe building up the business is the way forward here.

I think Lemos will bring something new. If there is not enough capacity in the industry as a whole then you would hope IQE could steal a part of this market. Convincing the big players is the issue here.

[sweenoid] 06/2/2024 15:22

Thanks Provonar for another great post.
I harp on about ‘markets’; because if they are booming they need suppliers and at present certain markets that IQE can supply are about to go ballistic so it perks my interest.

Have a look at Coherents earnings, comments and outlook and perhaps listen to their CC today. Coherent are of course a competitor in the VCSEL market but they also supply markets like AI and ML ( machine learning) and their positivity about the revenue growth that will come from AI in particular is stunning mainly in the 800G and above data transceiver business.

In my meeting with Americo he was ultra keen in emphasising not just the prospects for GAN but also the potential huge opportunities for AI “AI CANNOT exist without compound semiconductors”; Now Coherent is a vertical company but most OEMS OUTSOURCE their compound semiconductor wafer supply. So AI AND GAN represent massive opportunities and I believe Americo and his team will be able to turn them into a very profitable business. Coherent execs stated that nearly all their growth in 24 and 25 will be due to AI demand!
Just saying
S

[lord loads of lolly] 06/2/2024 15:16

theyak - thanks for that. Assuming the next results are in May, a two month close period still gives Directors ample time to be buying now.

Awfully quiet so far (other than Lemos, who - to his credit - HAS put his money where his mouth is). So why aren't the others?

[provonar] 06/2/2024 15:01

Further wild speculation in the GaN power space:

The German company Infineon, which is Europe's largest Tier 1 semiconductor (both silicon and CS) manufacturer has had some good Q1 2024 reporting -


Taking a look at their Annual Report 2023 ( there are some interesting statements from their CEO, e.g. p.7 "In addition to SiC, GaN is developing into a key material for power semiconductors. It has advantages especially at higher switching frequencies. In particular, for applications such as mobile charging, power supplies for data centers, solar inverters for private households, and onboard chargers for electric vehicles, GaN is on the brink of a breakthrough and promises very strong market growth. We therefore want to continue to enhance our technical skills in the field of GaN."

Considering IQE's growth plan is strongly linked to the growth of power GaN, it's good to see a big Tier 1 manufacturer talking of GaN being on the brink of a breakthrough. Elsewhere in the annual report, it explains how strong the relationship is between Infineon and their OEMs - who have invested something like $1 billion into Infineon to contribute to their expansion before numerous product ramps. So, if the CEO's saying GaN is on the brink, then he should know with his insight into the OEM customer pipeline.

However, there is, of course, no link to IQE or any other Tier 2 supplier mentioned. This is one of the companies that doesn't state any upstream supply chain, so if IQE is a supplier, I'm sure IQE is not allowed to say so. There's plenty of blurb about how Infineon has a broad supplier base, so I would be surprised if IQE isn't involved in some capacity (along with IQE's GaN epiwafer competitors).

But for Mr. Lemos to be so confident in the revenue ramp, the timing looks similar and thus encouraging - it's not as if Infineon would be the only Tier 1 GaN supplier planning products with OEMs. DYOR.

[theyak] 06/2/2024 14:55

Updates are normally March and September with full year results for 2023 expected in May. Closed period is generally 2 months before updates or posting of results. So if that’s correct they may not be any inside buying until after the expected 2023 results posted sometime in May.

[lord loads of lolly] 06/2/2024 14:40

Crosswires - they'd obviously be unable to trade during the company's close period, but I'm not sure when this is in IQE's case. Anyone know?

[crosswires] 06/2/2024 12:59

The thing i find slightly strange is that if there is so much optimism at IQE and business is about to boom (which it would have to, to get anywhere near 3x rev by ‘27), why are there not more directors buying at 20p (or when we were lower)? Surely Americo is as uber positive behind closed doors as he is in public about where IQE is heading? It’s my one slight concern currently

[lord loads of lolly] 03/2/2024 20:26

Longtallsally - I suggest you actually read my posts before going off on one. I don’t think IQE is doomed. When did I EVER say that?

But I DO think it’ll be a while still before we see any evidence of a turnaround. And that it’s not guaranteed even then.

Guildedge - your obsession with big funds buying & selling is totally beyond me & tells us very little about the future share price direction IMHO. One fund sells, another picks up the slack. And what exactly do we deduce from that? Zip.

Directors’ trades might be of slightly more relevance, so yes I agree Lemos’ hefty buys look encouraging. But even Director buys are - as often as not - a poor guide to timing and to the right entry price. They’re often more of a hint as to where momentum’s EVENTUALLY heading. Which is why I continue to hold, but would only consider adding if we re-visit the 12p-ish level.

As for Sweenoid, I hold nothing against him & know very little about him other than his longstanding Tiggerish enthusiasm for IQE. He may be right this time. But he’s been optimistic for so many years now, he’s almost bound to make the right call eventually.

So I stand by what I said previously. Posters here can claim absolutely anything and it’s almost always impossible to verify. Who knows whether Sweenoid’s HQ visit ever happened. Even assuming it did, there seem to be no independent sources to corroborate what was said & what the mood music was like. Which is why I treat this type of anecdotal hearsay with such caution - especially when it comes from sources who’ve been proved wrong umpteen times before.

[guildedge] 03/2/2024 10:45

You have the filter option. It doesn't remove the posts but you learn to stop replying to the people adding less value on here. Of course you always want to see all sorts of opinions. Sweenoid posts are very positive but good to get balance.

This share is 100% worth a punt at 20p as so much bad news already out of the way. The new CEO has had a while now to start pushing his new plans so you would feel good news has to be coming. The only bad news might be if they don't find new orders but even that seems unlikely based on what Sweenoid has said.

I remember Huntsworth when it his 33-36p. Directors started pouring in and the company turned everything around and at peak share was 133p or so. With a big fund selling the share has barely dropped below 20p.

[longtallsally] 02/2/2024 19:46

Lords if that’s the case why don’t you put yourself out of your misery, sell and invest in something you do believe in. Really it beggars belief that you’re still invested here and still post the same thing over and over about a company that you’re so convinced is doomed. It’s very strange behaviour to be so interested in IQE on one hand that you post almost daily for years but be so convinced nothing positive will happen. Are you a narcissist?

[lord loads of lolly] 02/2/2024 18:12

Personally, I treat anything anyone says on any board with great caution. Particularly when they claim to have the ear of top brass.

Always tricky to sift the Traitors from the Faithful, when anyone can claim anything and it's impossible to verify either way.

Best to go with your own instincts than rely on alleged nods & winks / join the dots exhortations from supposedly singled out PIs.

Just saying.

[guildedge] 02/2/2024 17:13

I got the trades wrong yesterday. Richard Griffiths buying but lent a large chunk out. What is it with investors in IQE loaning out shares?

I actually had a CEO post on here after I posted. Share rose a few months later bought out. I wonder how many CEO watch forums like this?

[beermat1] 02/2/2024 14:40

Very helpful, ta