Iqe Share Discussion Threads

[boboty] 09/8/2018 18:28

Belt & braces - are you st...id or what. If I wanted to take out a short on Iqe would my name appear on that list or would the institution I shorted through or another counterparty appear. The shorters are either punters taking a punt or people or companies hedging a long position. I don’t buy the idea shorters know best because it is patently true that they often loose their shirt. What I find interesting is that banks like Goldman sax or funds have been willing to lend their shares for rent and then use that rent to increase their stake. They are not stupid and are doing it to make money which they will do when the share price rises

[belt n braces] 09/8/2018 18:03

Some facts:

(1) IQE - 5th from the top of the leaderboard of shorted companies.

(2) The shorters:

Coltrane Asset Management - HQ in New York
Ennimore Management Ltd - HQ in London
GSA Capital Partners - HQ in London
JO Morgan Asset Management - HQ in New York
Marshall Wace LLP - HQ in London ( and still yet 1.56% short)
SCGE Fund LP - HQ in California
Valiant Capital ManGEMENT - HQ in San Fransisco
Wellington Management Co - HQ in Boston, USA
World Quant - HQ in New York

all professional outfits, who have put their own money on the line, and will have shorted for a reason (note 6 USA shorters).


However, the bulletin board brigade here know better, best of luck!

[jamesrowe] 09/8/2018 17:58

Although optimistic I am a little more cautious than some on here about prospects for the share price in the short to medium term. Is IQE growing? Yes! But my view is that this year's and next year's known growth is probably already already in the current price.

What we need if the share price is really going to take off is news of an unexpected major new deal or a large upgrade of the potential market for VCSELs etc. What we had in July was confirmation that an existing large wireless customer will continue to use IQE IP for 1 more year. 2019 needs to go better than currently expected and we need to get some visibility of likely 2020 figures.

There is scope to exceed current projection for next year (e.g. recent small order for value added optics component to grow into a major order or even several in order to improve margins, improved margins in wireless due to move to manufacture in Singapore coming through, wireless filters taking off etc. All possible but we are not there yet so I wouldn't yet rule out a drop back to nearer £1 (once the current euphoria wears off) before the price starts marching upward.

Am I being too pessimistic??

[dr_smith] 09/8/2018 17:49

Hypothetical view of sh*rters.
Lets say we have 2 shareholders with same strategy and outlook...except one came in yonks ago at sub 30p (LTH) the other came in in recent months at say £1.20 (Newbie).
Then.. sh*rters apply downward pressure taking price below £1.10 towards £1.

LTH may get p*ssed off with inexplicable share price movements and say sod it, I have made a multiple bagging gain, I'll take my profits, invest elsewhere and leave'm to it.

Newbie also is p*ssed off, could sell same lot of shares and move on to same hopefully shorter free new opportunity, but would have to accept a psychological barrier of taking a loss.

IMO, the past is the past, portfolio is best managed/optimised by looking forward, so LTH and Newbie, other things equal, should take same view, but none of us like to take a loss so Newbie may have different view and feel compelled to hold.

There are also the counter-arguments, LTH's can turn a blind eye to share price going down as still in profit and happy to wait for anticipated future. Also Newbie may be more inclined to sell as losing on a newly acquired holding.

The point...
Sh*rters make holders think more about their holding..should they stick or sell, when we would otherwise forget about it for 3+ months at a time.

The backdrop is a going places co, with rapidly increasing share price with wide/speculative figures to put meat on bone for sales/profits, in both quantity and timeframe.

If we get into position where increment is steady, for reasons of known sales orders (taken and forecast), the share price will operate with a tighter oscilation and leave less room for sh*rters..maybe.

Waffle waffle..can't we just tell them to f off..

Oh.. another thing.. Musk commented on being a public co meant sometimes quarterly targets conflicted with long term strategy. I know that to be the case, I have worked in Departments (building a data warehouse) where short term managers come in and want to make themselves look good with quick results, but they do so to detriment of longer term plans with bigger returns/benefits. From an employees point of view, it was demoralising.

I can counter-argue with that, there are parralells with IQE, massive investment and need to see a return sooner rather than later - to evidence the investment & research, make it tangible.

I see the answer as that middle line compromise, to reduce risk, especially when dealing with the outside world and its many variables (as opposed to an intra-company service as was my above experience).

So clarity of control, direction and expectations, giving less doubt to investors,
leading to a less volatile sp, resilient to third party comment, and much diminished margin for sh*rters on share price with little fluctuation.

IMO :-)
Sorry..only meant to type a short note and got carried away.

[mad foetus] 09/8/2018 17:43

Kile An 11.3% short means that there is a short position in 11.3% of the shares. The long position will be 100%, however, and not 88.7%.

[knackers] 09/8/2018 17:31

Very simple reason they didn't close Rich, they couldn't. They need a total and utter train wreck - and it's probably gonna have to be completely left of field.

When you go to the races it's never wise to put a £50 note on the nose of an outsider. He'll only be eating grass at the start ;o)

[richardc77] 09/8/2018 17:05

I like the smell of shorts in the evening ;)

Nice action this week, certainly I have no idea why shorts did not close at £1 level, I doubt even more now that we will close back under that level

Roll on next year.

[agaudry] 09/8/2018 17:04

Just filter idiots who are quite possibly the same sad person who has nothing constructive to add .... and who can only pick arguments and curse at people ... why waste energy and time reading nonsense and bile.

[knackers] 09/8/2018 17:01

Something has to go horribly wrong for shorts to close out that % BnB. Time 'n' tide and all that.

Brave? Unquestionably.
Overly committed? Almost certainly.
Stupid? [Hmmmmm] I'm thinking 'yeah, kind of unwise'.
Informed? Possibly.
Ignorant of the full facts? More than likely.


'All in the valley of Death Rode the six hundred.
“Forward, the Light Brigade! Charge for the guns!” he said.'

hxxps://www.poets.org/poetsorg/poem/charge-light-brigade

[william_quinn] 09/8/2018 17:00

BnB,IQE 2017 cash conversion ratio 1.7, anything under .8 treat with caution.

[boboty] 09/8/2018 16:54

Belt and braces you talk such bo^^ocks. Iqe has been cash generative for years but they have chosen to buy companies and ip and do research in order to be in the position they are in now. Iqe profits are growing at about 30% a year. They do make profits and have lots of cash to buy kit to make more profits. Do you realise they raised 98Million last year to enable them to take advantage of their dominant position.

[kileleni] 09/8/2018 16:48

B&b Can I ask as a newbie does 11.3% shares shorted mean 88.7 % are long? And have the investors going long also done their due diligence?

[podgyted] 09/8/2018 16:43

Total game of chicken - I'm on the right side at the moment but who knows.

[adejuk] 09/8/2018 16:32

good finish
shorts closing for the moment

[cheek212] 09/8/2018 16:31

I agree - the shorting damage was done when the price fell from 180 to 100 with Marshall Wace taking the lead in this. They have now greatly reduced their position but other shorters have replaced them, but without further drop in price. The business has moved on, and the shorters should be doing likewise but have not, which will be their downfall! Wace has done the right thing and crystallised their profit - and in the meantime the market grows as does IQE.

[knackers] 09/8/2018 16:22

Problem with that DD - it was serving a particular purpose/end (get the price down from £1.80 to sub £1) 8 months ago and is now achingly out of date. The price has dropped and yet they remain short. Bonkers. Where is the NEW short case? They need one pronto. EDIT: Rest assured, they'll take whatever they can from you at these prices.

LITE having a good start to the day!

[bocase] 09/8/2018 16:20

Thank you Crunk.

I had not realised you were privy to the NDAs.

[belt n braces] 09/8/2018 16:12

You will probably get a spike up now and again (shorts partly closing and retail bulletin board punters piling in). However, a short level of 11.3% is there for a reason, in my view these are professionals who have done their due diligence. In my view, somewhere along the line (possible when least expected), the share price will take a hit.

The problem is that the company has not been cash generative, this needs to change over the long term to enable the company to justify such a high share price.

I closed a short recently at 98.35 and re-opened again today at 112.72. I may be wrong, but over the long term we shall see?

[thecrunk] 09/8/2018 16:10

Yes very substantive evidence. However its covered under NDA so can't say anything about it.

[bocase] 09/8/2018 16:08

Crunk:

"The samsung galaxy note 9 will use IQE wafers"

Do you have any evidence of that please??

[cheek212] 09/8/2018 16:01

Marshall Wade reduced their short a little more yesterday according to shorttracker - hopefully the others will also do likewise.

[knackers] 09/8/2018 15:58

Shorts have probably already done it!

Interesting trading today antics today - both momentum and intent. But this is a funny one alright. MMs continue to move things around aggressively to shake-out the weak. Not sure about the close that's of little interest, I'd expect us to be well above £1.20 by the Aug bank hols.

[jimboyce] 09/8/2018 15:44

Samsung Galaxy 9 released to day bst 4pm. How long will it take to dismantle it and discover that's inside?

[thecrunk] 09/8/2018 15:34

The samsung galaxy note 9 will use IQE wafers