Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 15/7/2014 18:51

SG 22831: re water rights hearing my error should have said June 3rd not July. Said cynically, but what a shambles :-(Thanks for Latest SQM info: things just could not be more favourable !!

[angel of the north] 15/7/2014 15:43

Thanks SG but got my desired response from Sam Huebner at the original address - for some reason it flagged up as 'bouncing' but obviously been re-routed to Sam.

[che7win] 15/7/2014 15:30

Superg,

Lol ;-)

That's why I'm here; I've posted it many times before.

We are lowest cost producer and we have a real moat to our company. We are protected from competition to some degree by our patents, technology, relationships with O&G and leases.

In the long run, SQMs dominance could well be under threat. At this stage, we are now producing meaningful amounts of iodine, IOF has on its own taken 300mt or so out of world demand as we supply our chemical division internally.

A double whammy is coming, as we have taken demand away and will now also start supplying iodine.

Your post reinforces my view that a few iodine producers have been struggling on, we saw that IodiTech article last year that said the same. Inventories will wind down, I also think demand slowed jan/February as some customers held off buying while iodine was falling hoping for a better deal.
So demand will probably increase against a significant fall in iodine inventories, a sharp rebound is likely when the supply isn't there to meet demand.

The thing is, if iodine hadn't fallen so far, we would have been self funding plants by now; it would be nice to have some mobile rolled out this year to meet any sharp increase in iodine prices.

[superg1] 15/7/2014 15:30

They go via ir@mitsubishi now AOTN

[angel of the north] 15/7/2014 14:52

Emails to [e-mail] are 'bouncing' - any others? Thank you.

[che7win] 15/7/2014 11:35

Superg,
If the Chiles cost pressures increase much more, there will be a semi-permanent cut back in production until iodine becomes profitable again.
I have a feeling iodine prices won't rise gently when they do turn around.

Those are eye watering expenditures SQM faces, at some time they will have to give the green light on setting up the new mining area, they will only do that if they are sure that iodine prices justify the cost.

Tata:
Tata Chemicals opens new innovation centre in India as soda ... Jul 14, 2014
... market. This business arm consumes a small amount of iodine...

[superg1] 15/7/2014 11:15

SQM trouble ahead.

I've been digesting their potential problems ahead.

Around 70% (6000mt) of their production comes from Neuve Victoria. In the last financial form, that site is shown as having 7 years of mine life left.

That would explain why they had the planned move to Pampa Blanca this year at a cost of $665 million. However that is on hold, and to add on they talk of phase 1 taking 21 months. Their circs compared are worse now, so I can't see that move appearing in 2015 either.

Under those circs there is no way they would be planning to put a seawater pipeline to Neuve. That would all be factored in for Pampa Blanca.

But they have a problem and potentially a cost near term I hadn't factored in, as have the others using fresh water.

The water reform mentioned anyone over 150 litres per second would be forced to use seawater. Many of the big mines have already gone that way so it doesn't bother them. There was a comment somewhere that if it was passed it would be phased in during 2016.

However that all ignores the main point that the government is seeking to gain control of all fresh water, and reclaim rights.

So the likes of SQM with those 570 litre per second rights, would suddenly find themselves having to pay for fresh water regardless of the 150 seawater rule, which would impact them re having to build pipelines. If 2016 is to be the phase in time, then what can they do as it would force the Pampa Blanca move and big expense.

For all investments in Chile using fresh water it could have an impact.

The laws changes being proposed is massive in Chile, but the market has no clue.

I would imagine every SQM analyst is currently oblivious to the potential water law changes next month and the impact on SQM. I doubt they have a clue re the current mine life situation either.

Neuve currently has water rights of 570 litres per second which is effectively free water.

[superg1] 15/7/2014 10:55

Engelo

Where did you find 3rd July. The permits site still shows 3rd June, which we know is wrong. AGM they said no date set.

No sign of any dates set in Montana (other sources) as far as I can see.

[engelo] 15/7/2014 10:42

Bryan: yes Jul 3rd. ;/

[superg1] 15/7/2014 07:11

bry

No date that I can find, so it's not been set yet imo.

[bryproj] 14/7/2014 22:11

Any one know if a date has been set for the water rights hearing?

[rogerbridge] 14/7/2014 21:32

Keep up the good work SG

[superg1] 14/7/2014 20:55

Algorta wee hit with delays and took longer than they wanted to get where they are. Now it seems they have pulled back.

Sirocco, now RB previously Atacama minerals spent over 10 years making promises are now further back than when they made the claims all those years ago.

SCM Bullmine..... interesting. I sought out answers to a comment that they had stopped mining. I understand they have stopped mining caliche and are now in the process of just leaching out existing heaps created. That will have a countdown to a complete halt. That will be another 1000mt to add to the 'gone offline pot.

SQM had plans to expand this year and move to Pampa Blanca in a $665 million move. The reality is that they have suspended that and are now on maintenance expenditure only.

The above pull backs are not down to world demand but businesses getting it wrong on their costs structure.

I go on about those Chile water laws but when something you were getting for nothing and maybe making a profit on, gets ripped away and you have notable increased costs because of it, then it's a material problem for them.

As for acts of god, the iodine production area and Japan got a reminder of that it the last few days, both with earthquakes over 6 on the scale.

[peartreegardens] 14/7/2014 18:34

SupergDon't know if this'll be your cup of tea or not, but have you looked at vmt?Dual listing on asx/aim. Growing, and profit making. Recent price weakness may provide a decent entry point - I sold out at 2.9p but am looking to get back in shortly.

[napoleon 14th] 14/7/2014 16:24

Not too worried about the RNS of 9th.
Straight & true, no hype & short numbers down to "acts of God"!
Just patience needed....

[napoleon 14th] 14/7/2014 16:23

Quote a.n. other on a.n. other BB-

"RE QPP - I'm not really following, but I note that accounts include "gain on re-measurement of acquisitions/investments" which, of course, is judgemental and isn't cash,
and that cash outflow was over £51m but no real detail.

I won't be investing."

Pertinent but he's missed out on the bounce today.

[che7win] 14/7/2014 15:21

Just look at QPP go today, showing up the derampers, 33% rise.

I don't own any, but like to watch and learn.

Someone is continuing to pick up stock here in dribs and drabs, wonder who....

[cyberbub] 14/7/2014 08:14

LOL monkey quite right too

[monkeymagic3] 14/7/2014 07:22

I think i was let off because i correctly prefixed it with sanctimonious fest.