Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[engelo] 10/7/2014 17:52

Looking for any reason for continual drift in the sp, the July iodine price on Zauba (calculated from actual import trades) has fallen to $35.74. It was above June's $37.87 a couple of days ago. The cause is a large transaction from Chile on July 10th of 21,600 kg 99.8% at an abnormally low price (2,122 indian rupees, equating to $35.2).

Curiously there was an almost identical transaction (99.5% but same quantity, same price) on June 30th. Excluding this transaction June's price average (now $37.87) would have come out above May's ($38,08).

So afaics evidence either of

- Chile dumping at prices ca 10% below the norm, or

- a little bending of the data, or

- PIs getting desperate :-)

[n3tleylucas] 10/7/2014 17:50

I'd like to see your trading account blubber... LOL

[cyberbub] 10/7/2014 17:39

Glad we held on to the 48p support on a day like today when almost everything is red...Good luck to all genuine holders...

[superg1] 10/7/2014 16:18

No one was expecting 40 for May, 30 to 35 seemed to be the general hope. Across the 2 months it came to a 35 average.

The chem div was said to be using 300 to 350 with a hope to increase towards 400. Hitting 40 to 50mt per month will give them excess to sell, and in the prilled form which some said was essential.

There was a lot of talk about crystal and the limited market at lower prices.

It was sorted by other means without the need for capex on a prilling tower, and reported as opex consistent with what it would cost them even with their own prilling kit.

So the new team are making some solid progress.

As for fixing electrical issues, it's not like the UK. You have counties in Montana the size of counties here. EG Woods county is bigger than Lancashire.

Lancs has 1.5 million people, Woods county has 8740. Oklahoma is 3/4 the size of the UK with just 3.8 million residents.

It's a different world

[madchick] 10/7/2014 16:16

I was disappointed that IO.3 is now a perpetual fracking site. It's good that they got the operators to supply brine, but it looks like it will never run at full capacity. It would have been a better position for a mobile than for a full plant.

Moreover, they achieved 30 MT for the month despite IO.3 having gone from minimal brine to 10-15k bbpd, which means that maybe IO.2 suffered quite a shortfall, given that they mention above average downtime for that. IO.1 also suffered, so it looks as if most of 30 MT came from Io.3 and IO.4.

Nevertheless, 30MT is not bad and we remain on target.

New (old) management is in and at least we (and they!) know what's going on.

[n3tleylucas] 10/7/2014 16:14

Well blub, I hear Arron is going on holiday ;)

[cyberbub] 10/7/2014 15:53

Yes it was a bit disappointing the latest production figure, but I believe we will be back to 40-odd in July and then 50+ in August... patience...

[che7win] 10/7/2014 14:48

Thanks Bobby, no longer in it for now.

Here's an interesting one for shorters....

I'm not a shorter, but if I were I would be researching STVG.

A shocking update yesterday on the pensions, which are now going to consume a much larger proportion of profits. Why it has not fallen hard I don't know, I would have sold immediately on that news.

Only my opinion, so DYOR.

[monkeymagic3] 10/7/2014 13:55

Not interested in who is buying.

Who is selling?

[diggulden] 10/7/2014 13:43

'Given that Mr B is hoovering up all shares under 50p'

Fest... lol.

I heard him saying he was a buyer, but not sure about hoovering up ALL shares sub 50p!

Come on IOF, give me some amazing news, my portfolio is taking a hammering across the board at the moment!

[mister big] 10/7/2014 13:36

I'm
Inclined to agree that news will drive performance and steady progress.
I'm
Busy today , as volatility returning to markets ( I think another bout of euro issues on the way ) long gold short the stock market and short euro !

[chapv] 10/7/2014 13:23

A lot of people (you included Festy) got burned big time by this so I guess it is going to take some solid progress this time to get the share price moving forward, there will be a lot of stale bulls on the way up.

[festario] 10/7/2014 13:10

Given that Mr B is hoovering up all shares under 50p, then I must assume that he is filling his boots royally today.There is an endless supply (seemingly) and no one doing any stake building at these so-called 'irrational' prices.

[engelo] 10/7/2014 12:44

Fv weather: affected suppliers primarily.

[freshvoice] 10/7/2014 12:30

Given 30 days in June the 25% reduction in output is equivalent to 7.5 days out of action at EACH site? Why?

[n3tleylucas] 10/7/2014 12:04

Ah you remember my theory? Wouldn't it be funny if it all panned-out that way?

[mister big] 10/7/2014 12:01

I think the oil and gas potential is massive but for iofina it's all upside .
Even one of the short posters said I bought in as an oil and gas play - he was right in that comment but not right that I waiting for the company to collapse ! Why lend 5m dollars ?
It is my contention that growing the company becomes easier with proven production and proof of concept - off take agreements for funding are common place . In the diamond industry miners will contract to sell output to Cartier / jewellers etc to secure a flow of quality material.
I believe iofina will be able to grow without further funding , debt using these types of agreements meaning shareholders will do very well.
The oil and gas play will become apparent - meanwhile I buy stock on weakness when the market behaves irrationally .

[superg1] 10/7/2014 10:54

Mr Big I note your oil comments once more.

A few things have popped up recently adding fuel to that fire.

We all know IOF are sitting on the 3 forks under their entire acreage with Continental resources the lead on excitement re the 3 forks. IOF talk of oil shows from old data.

The question is whether oil exists or has migrated west or to any other areas.

That combined with the fact the 3 forks is much cheaper to drill under IOF as it seems to be at it's most shallow point where they are, as confirmed in a well drill report we got hold of for the area.

Canadian E&P covers the point of oil migration and the more shallow sections



"In the U.S. Bakken, the plays are much deeper and the oil is in place in the rock where it was created; in the Canadian Bakken the resource has migrated northward from North Dakota and is consequently not as firmly embedded in the rock and it is much shallower, Willson said.
"In North Dakota, you are drilling into the source rock, but where we are in Saskatchewan, the supplies are only about one mile deep and the porosity and permeability tightens to the north, so this oil has migrated all the way up from North Dakota, and it is basically trapped in Saskatchewan."


Over to Montana Exploration who are exploring just East of IOF in Blaine county. They have geologically tied it to the Elm Coulee which is a well known big field.

Sizable emerging new Bakken Basin.

Reserve potential of 10 million barrels of oil in place per section.
Initial well which was a redrill to test a log show in an early 1950's well confirmed reservoir sand and migrated oil in the Bakken system which may be trapped on the up-dip edge.

Geological tie established to the analog fields at Elm Coulee (cum 89 million bbls) to the east. The same stratigraphic pinchout of the middle Bakken sand can be mapped across the company owned Blaine County lands.


All in all promising stuff for the future re what lies under IOF land, and the shallow depth oil migration theory, seems to be looking very good.

[cyberbub] 10/7/2014 10:45

Well $6-7 royalty might be a bit ambitious, but $4-5 seems perfectly achievable IMO and would still bring us in oodles of cash, considering how much fracking is going on in the US...

[madchick] 10/7/2014 10:41

I like the licensing idea too!

[madchick] 10/7/2014 10:40

cyberbub - thanks for that, I think I like your terms better! I'm a little concerned that if iodine prices rise over the next year or so, any fixed price agreements may look like bad deals, so 10% discount at current market price at any given time seems fairer to all and still a good deal for all.

[cyberbub] 10/7/2014 09:58

Sometimes agreement like this say that the partner will provide the capex up front, in return for an exclusive and indefinite supply from that plant at say 10% below the world price. Given our low and falling opex, that would be a stonking deal for us, as well as the partner.The alternative is of course that we could do some licensing of the tech. We already have patents pending in Japan and Chile, and I believe elsewhere too? Can you imagine if we licensed it across the US and the world for a royalty of say $6-7 per kg??! Mountains of cash - for free!NAI

[engelo] 10/7/2014 09:23

Madchick you're thinking on the right lines IMO. Advantages to both parties. Worth browsing thro definitions of Offtake agreements. Price of product vs prevailing world price would be crucial.