Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Iofina LSE:IOF London Ordinary Share GB00B2QL5C79 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.025p -0.19% 12.85p 11.75p 13.95p - - - 126,312 16:35:21
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 20.8 -9.8 -7.6 - 16.39

Iofina Share Discussion Threads

Showing 84001 to 84025 of 84025 messages
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DateSubjectAuthorDiscuss
15/10/2018
12:20
Go on take one for the team .... :-0
squire007
14/10/2018
10:09
Scared of taking it up the buttocks
millennial
14/10/2018
09:54
millennial....scared of making money?
temmujin
14/10/2018
09:18
mes, show why myself and people like Squire believe this will comfortably get back to the 30’s and ideally low 40’s On a 1-2 year investment view. IF there are no unknowns my figure is mid 40's.
serratia
14/10/2018
08:55
Wow, Captain, how bizarre. Normally you can only see the first two or three lines of any article, and subscribers pay more than $1000 for the service. Usually i check their website on a Friday afternoon ( which is when they update ) but this Friday I forgot to do so. Well spotted !
mesquida
14/10/2018
08:30
Mesq...the article is viewable on their website. Maybe they forget to add security to the page
captain_kurt
14/10/2018
08:11
FWIW I bought in bailed month ago but may get in but im scared
millennial
14/10/2018
08:10
Serratia, not sure what you meant to say in your second sentence. Can you spell it out more clearly. Johnsdale, excellent post, thankyou so much for taking the time to post such a lengthy piece. Just one point that you did not mention, and that i personally think is worth remembering, is that Lance still has a substantial holding, and therefore he will be very much in favour of avoiding dilution of the equity base. Captain Kurt, am still intrigued as to how you got hold of the IndMin report!
mesquida
14/10/2018
08:07
Q3 2018 ops update Key data Share price (p) 12.7 Target price (p) 35.0 Market cap (£m) 16.2 Enterprise value (£m) 33.8 Operational momentum continues for Iofina, with record quarterly production of iodine delivered in Q3 2018, driven by strong performance from its new IO#7 IOsorb unit. This leaves FY18 guidance looking reasonably comfortable. Despite this, and the improving iodine price, the shares have languished, weighed down by the uncertainty over debt restructuring; a successful conclusion to negotiations would provide a material catalyst for the shares and pave the way for additional growth projects.
millennial
13/10/2018
23:30
johnsdale, I don't post my figures as there are too many unknowns. I wouldn't argue with your EBT, I'm a little more conservative and your price target I'm at the top end.
serratia
13/10/2018
22:36
I also spent sometime today going back over my notes and the AGM and other information I picked up by speaking to the company about the debt situation in June as the situation has been taken slightly out of context. I’m going to spell it out in layman’s terms as I think there are a huge amount of lurkers here waiting for clarity on the debt and it’s hard to piece the information together, my aim of late has to keep a constructive dialogue on the issue as it’s the one single impediment to this share price hitting high 20’s low 30’s with the iodine price rises and record production figures we saw this week. Stena originally lent the company 15 million and Pancrea a further 5 million dollars over a 2 year period at an interest coupon of 6.5%. This debt was renegotiated to 6% interest and the deal at the time allowed for the debt to be converted into shares at 18p -25p and 32p respectively. The debt also allowed for a 10 million overdraft facility for expansion and the debt interest to be rolled up. It’s important to understand the relationship Iofina have with Stena and Pancrea in that they are both shareholders and know the company very well. When this deal was made the share price was 5p, had they wanted to take the company over at that stage they could have done so with little resistence by simply calling in the debt or placing the convertibles at the current share price allowing monumental amounts of dilution, but they elected not too. I only state this point as if they didn’t then and all Iofina’s Comments relate to them not wanting to run the plants why would they change there mind now. All the comments from the company In June indicate Stena want to gradually reduce there debt exposure here down by 50%. Information from the company was they are happy to keep the 18p convertables in play. Realistically this is why they were happy to sell above 18-20p but also why I didn’t believe (still don’t) that they were selling below this point. Also Banks (Pancrea) snapped up shares to the value of what Stena offloaded. Always hard to know what his motivation is here as he no longer comments, However again if there was a motivation to pull the debt in it makes zero sense for Banks raise his stake in Iofina as it’s literally money he doesn’t have to spend. So far they have drawn down 3 million from the overdraft which produced IO7 and as the news shows this week an incredibly profitable plant. So the debt in focus is circa 18 million as Stenas full proportion, the comments remain this is a gradual reduction down to 50% but even assuming they want half back next June it would look as follows: They effectively would like 9 million back at this point if we remove the word gradual. Iof’s issue is they are so close to being in a position to clear the entire debt over a 2 year term, but they have to borrow more to do so, however vindicated by the price rises and record production figures this week. I could go into why I think it’s actually financially easy to do and the comments around new debt being negotiated at 7% coupons, but that is more subjective and I’ve tried to keep this post aligned with the facts as told to us by the company to date. I’ve done this as I’ve found this management team to be highly honest and reliable which combined with my own research is why I’ve taken such a large position here. I originally invested at 60p and averaged down slightly but my breakeven remains around 13-14p mostly because I did simailar research prior to the last debt Deal and took a large position then. I think Hernando makes some great points as to why he feels this could have a negative outcome and I’ve always said without opposing views a board is worthless, sorry for my long post and I hope people will correct any errors in the above, the aim is to spread knowledge and understanding, and show why myself and people like Squire believe this will comfortably get back to the 30’s and ideally low 40’s On a 1-2 year investment view. Enjoy what remains of your weekend
johnsdale
13/10/2018
21:50
The figures myself and others have thrown about on here previously show every dollar increases bottom line by 600-700k so they are already able to cover the debt interest. It’s hard without knowing the breakdown of the one off investment in iofina chemical exactly what their full year profit will be but with the current production figures I would still estimate 2-3 million by year end (factoring in interest payments. This half they benefit from 25% more iodine production and a full six months at a higher iodine price, assuming no further investment in Iofina Chemical and obviously they still had further costs at io7. When I found out they were actually buying iodine stock in I took that as a much more bullish statement on iodine prices than anything covered in their RNS for 2018. There would be little need to do this if you didn’t feel the price would continue to jump. I agree that iodine prices will eventually cap themselves around the low 30’s, but if you look at any commodity price rise, it will continue to go higher before it finds the balance Iofina can fill the gap much faster than any other supplier. Something a little less obviously is the dollar is predicted to fall from it’s perch early next year by every major financial institution. A weaker dollar could push the price higher still depending on how the peso does in relation.
johnsdale
13/10/2018
16:08
Considering in H1, we would probably have broken even on an average price around $24, without the one off investment in iofina chemicals. An average price of $27, and a 25% increase in production in this half (likely given Q3 production figures) should see us nicely in profit for the full year, even after interest payments. Next year could be a bumper profit, without any new production, if the price of iodine exceeds $30.
strocketman
13/10/2018
15:13
We are going to have a mighty interesting time to see how SQM can get themselves out of this. Very encouraging C K.
rogerbridge
13/10/2018
15:11
So current prices for iodine $25.50 - $27 per kg - On that basis and given published most recent financials - do we think if these prices are sustained over a year that iof can claim to likely be in overall profit at the end of this term - including debt maintenance costs?
pcjoe
13/10/2018
13:54
Great summary. Thx. To me it seems there is a sweet spot for Iofina between $28 and $33 when others may not want to risk higher production, especially if SQM may ramp up. Then from the SQM perspective a higher price would suit as well, so they also would not want to oversupply the market.
strocketman
13/10/2018
13:35
Cheers ck. It is a fascinating study into market manipulation. They could keep costs down, keep production low and prices would increase. Their profits would likely increase but it would open up the door for the competition. It is a monopoly.
king_roster_iii
13/10/2018
13:26
Captain Kurt, really good of you to share that with us all, but I am intrigued, do you work in the industry and thus have free access to Ind Min's research, or have you shelled out $1000 plus for this report just because you have a holding in Iofina and are interested to know what is going on in the real world outside the stock market! If it is the latter then well done you, myself I do not mind paying for research, but the Ind Min reports are a tad too pricey for me !
mesquida
13/10/2018
10:29
Thank you for sharing that, much appreciated.
noujay
13/10/2018
09:41
GW I think they were less cost effective for now than new larger plants if I recall correctly. I can't remember the reason.
madchick
13/10/2018
08:40
What happened to the idea of the mobile units?
globalwill
12/10/2018
22:09
Looking good! Makes me wonder if IOF will return to the idea of a sponsored plant...
madchick
12/10/2018
17:28
Wow...thanks for sharing Capt Kurt!
jaykaytee
12/10/2018
17:00
hxxps://www.indmin.com/Article/3838054/Iodine/CPhI-2018-Market-looks-to-SQM-to-ensure-adequate-iodine-supply-in-2019.html PhI 2018: Market looks to SQM to ensure adequate iodine supply in 2019 By MICHAEL GREENFIELD, MICHAEL GREENFIELD Published: Friday, 12 October 2018 Concerns over water supplies, and sales that exceed production, have made market participants worry that the already-tight iodine market could move into undersupply unless SQM, the world’s largest producer, boosts its capacity utilization. Iodine market participants have been querying SQM’s ability to supply the market in 2019, with the company’s sales continuing to exceed production volumes and amid concerns about the company’s ability to secure necessary water supplies. Chile-based SQM holds the major share of the market for iodine, and has supplied more than 35% of global production so far in 2018. If it should fail to produce enough material, market participants fear that a resulting iodine shortfall would drive prices upward. Other producers could step in but only after a delay to ramp-up their output. There are significant doubts about whether SQM can secure the water it will need to produce enough iodine to meet demand, one producer told Fastmarkets IM on the sidelines of this year’s CPhI Worldwide pharmaceuticals industry exhibition in Madrid on October 9-11. For every kilogram of iodine that is produced, around 3-4 tonnes of rock must be blasted and then leached with two tonnes of water. This makes adequate water supply a critical part of consistent iodine production. At the CPhI event, a source close to SQM acknowledged that there had been a problem with access to fresh water supplies, but said that it had now been resolved. In January this year, the Chilean government ordered SQM to close temporarily some of its seven water extraction wells because there were issues over the monitoring of water quality. This dispute between SQM and the government has been recently settled, however. Market participants widely believed that SQM would produce around 9,000 tonnes of iodine this year but would sell 13,000 tonnes, with the difference being made up from stockpiles. This would mean a production shortfall of 4,000 tonnes so far this year. And because SQM’s stocks have been reducing over the past three years, this could mean problems for the market in the near term. But Fastmarkets IM estimates that SQM will produce 11,000-12,000 tonnes of iodine this year, although this was not confirmed by the source. The company should produce as much as 14,000 tonnes of iodine in 2019, after the completion of a capacity expansion program in the second half of this year. One market analyst believes that SQM entered the calendar year with as little as 800 tonnes of stock, but also said that there was no evidence of where it would source the additional water supply that would be needed to ramp up capacity utilization. But it was revealed earlier this year that an agreement had been reached with Chilean economic development agency Corfo that would allow SQM to increase production without pumping more brine from the areas where it operates. Iodine producers typically aim to hold enough stock for four months of sales, but Fastmarkets understands that SQM normally holds a longer position. This is so that it has the ability to react to unexpected changes in the balance of supply and demand. SQM’s stock levels had fallen because it was making up market shortfalls after other producers closed down at a time of low prices. SQM has been recording sales higher than production in order to retain its market share, and it is on track to sell around 13,000 tonnes in 2018, which would be a record high, the same source close to the company told Fastmarkets IM at the event. The added capacity gained with this year’s expansion will be used to replenish the company’s stock levels. Their reduction over the past three years has created concerns among market participants about what might happen should the company with the largest market share falter and cause the market to become undersupplied. SQM reduced its production due to the issues over water extraction in the Salar de Llamara in Chile. This coincided with the market enduring a period of depressed prices that had lasted since 2016. This had forced some companies to take capacity offline. SQM then filled the supply gap from its stocks, and this is what has shortened the company’s current stock position. But SQM’s stocks are still higher than "historic levels," a distributor based in India said. And a source based in North America said: "We don’t know whether SQM is filling its [stock-holding] capacity. We will have to wait until 2019 to see if it can do that. There could be a shortage in 2019 but it will depend on SQM’s stock position." Other producers aside from SQM have capacity that is not being utilized and they could return to the market should this be needed, but there would be a delay in getting iodine into buyers’ hands because of the unavoidable time that it would take to ramp-up idled capacity. Chile-based produced Cosayach, for example, currently produces around 4,000 tonnes per year of iodine, Fastmarkets IM understands, but it has no plans to raise its output until there is a clearer understanding of SQM’s production targets for 2019. Other companies are hesitant about bringing capacity back online while there is still uncertainty about prices due to the doubts about supply. The source close to SQM said that he would be surprised if prices did not rise to $28 per kg during the first quarter of 2019. Fastmarkets IM’s latest price assessment for iodine, spot, min 99.5%, was $25.50-27.00 per kg on Thursday October 11. The price has risen from $23-25 per kg in early January 2018, and from $18.50-21.00 per kg at the start of 2017.
captain_kurt
12/10/2018
09:43
Same here Squire I’ve had my ups and downs here, but it’s a really strong management team and business model, it was a huge production increase which was stunted by a bloodbath in general within the market. Level 2 is looking much perkier today and it’s already jumped to 13.6p for the buy which shows you how limited shares are after all the buying recently. I’m in this for the long haul..........
johnsdale
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