Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 17/3/2015 08:49

Awol

Bullmine and Algorta should be loss making now as they use seawater. RB will be on about break even (fresh water).

Cosayach unknown as their costs have been based on theft, fraud, false accounts and tax evasion.

Cosayach have a pipeline being built so my hope is they will fall in line, or will have to.

That said they have $210 mill to pay in court orders, plus $82 mill in tax fraud pending where the courts can fine them up to 4 times that.

SQM are in more trouble that they state. They were very dismissive of the CORFO court case risk re lithium leases, but lied about iodine production, so who knows where they stand re CORFO.

All at a time when we know the SQM inventory is at minimum levels. In the last crisis they had 5000mt sat in the inventory and still the price went to $100 per kg.

Knowing what I know now, I think the $100 per kg wasn't needed but SQM used scare tactics to cash in on their inventory. However that left analysts thinking SQM were on higher production than they are.

EG

The Santander analyst thought SQM were on about 12,500mt production for 2014. Then was somewhat horrified to think it could be as low as 10,800mt, when in fact (as he now knows) it's more likely to be around 8,300mt.

SQM were on about a 9000 mt rate of sales for 2014. 27%/28% was their comment. Now they say 26% of 31,600mt which happens to be a little below the 8,300 mt figure. Imo it can't be a coincidence, just the facts they tried to hide, now surfacing.

The iodine price that looks sickly does not represent what is going on. The market assumes considerable over-production. Any material disruption to the market now and the end users will find out just how serious it is.

I'm curious to see what the new CEO will do, just $5 per kg is a $40 mill profit difference for SQM, and the iodine price is whatever they decide it is.

[microcline] 17/3/2015 08:45

Surely the shenanigans emanating from Chile will encourage ethical companies in the USA to switch suppliers away from a bunch of crooks? Maybe IOF should drop a few hints to honourable USA enterprises. Go IOF and get the production up.

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 08:40

"SQM CEO Ousted After Boardroom Clash in Chile Payment Probe"

Well it just keeps coming fast....now wonder what the analysts think about this??

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 08:30

It is a major problem....and for those of you reading this thinking we are taking cheap pot shots at our competitor please read the info and links posted here even if it does not contain the name SQM...as this problem effects all miners working in Chile. Not only the water and power issue they also have major labour issues...as the locals are struggling with water shortages....badly treated etc etc...

All of this does have an impact on IOF and the price of Iodine.

[randdokic] 17/3/2015 08:28

response from the DNRC:

Dear XX,

The contested case hearing in the matter of application no. 40S-30066181 by Atlantis Water Solutions was held on February 19, 2015. The parties had until March 6, 2015 to submit a closing brief in this matter. The record was closed on March 6 and the Hearing Examiner now has 90 days from that date to issue a decision.

The decision will be posted on the DNRC website under Hearing Orders. The current link to the Hearings Order page is:
hxxp://www.dnrc.mt.gov/wrd/water_rts/hearing_info/hearing_orders/hearingorders.asp

[superg1] 17/3/2015 08:10

Rid

We know the 90 days rule. I doubt IOF have a firm timeline. If they were going to announce the review they can't tell you when, it would have to be in news.

I have no idea on either point.

On the review there a number of things tht could have impacted that.

EG.

The oil companies completing re-doing frac schedules which may impact where IOF want to put more plants.
M and A activity normally kicks into life at such times and I imagine Chesa may be looking at Midstates.

The iodine price. Will SQM squeeze it further. However with a new CEO they may change strategy, they have lost $8m to $9 mill for every $1 they have dropped the price.

There are others matters and opportunities not mentioned here that are apparent.

Very sensible imo to be cautious on cash and get the balance building, while the Chile folk finish off their sparring session.

What is guaranteed imo is that the price of iodine for decades has not been a true picture as Cosayach and SQM who produced over half of the world supply at one point were doing so by fraud and tax avoidance.

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 08:08

Happy St Pats day everyone...!

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 08:00

Go for it Ridi

I think you will hit a brick wall on that as it is price sensitive information....as we are in holding mode just reading news on the other producers and as SQM have manipulated the price last year it is important to see what is going on with them.


Good luck

[ridicule] 17/3/2015 07:55

Hi guys, I recognise that the Chilean producers will have a bearing on the Iodine price going forward, but can we get some focus back on Iofina. Has anyone phoned to see when they think the water hearing decision will be made and how dependant timing of the long awaited strategic reviewwill be announced? I am looking to make a phone call if not.

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 07:53

The more you read the more it looks like a nightmare living out right in front of their noses...the weather pattern is not going to change anytime soon...it is getting warmer and dryer....they need vast amounts of water to run the business....just like most miners in Chile. They need huge investment in destal NOW or they are doomed. Add all this with the tax and accounting issues....O dear beam me up Scottie!

[jbe81] 17/3/2015 07:47

Superg do you have an idea who is buying shares at this level?

[superg1] 17/3/2015 07:45

They have some big problems to sort out, they just never admitted it and misled analysts in conference calls. I assume the same deception went on in direct comms too.

Interesting that the share price started it's dive when I revealed the truth to one of them.

Awol

As you point out, they need a back up plan. If the drought affects their water rights they are screwed, as they don't have a back up plan or pipeline applied for.

[awolagain] 17/3/2015 07:20

Just to add to their woes...the water shortage is not going away anytime soon and is seen here...

More altercations in recent months with 8 years of drought. Ultimately it may close. It's a copper story but it transfers easily to other miners.

[superg1] 16/3/2015 22:29

Oh I missed this bit

After a board meeting, the non-metallic mining directed by Julio Ponce decided not to provide accounting information for tax years 2009 to 2014. Thus, it could accommodate the self-reporting mechanism established by the SII. In turn, it was announced that Patricio Contesse not continue as CEO of the firm.

So Contesse is out and he is the guy that lied in the conference call. I bet the analayst believes me now, not that he didn't already.

[awolagain] 16/3/2015 16:18

mmm not so sure....MMs filling orders at around 32p and have to take out weak stops?? just hope we don't fall into the 20s and it could fall quickly as I would guess lots of stops around mid 20s and the snowball effect could take it down!

[joeblogg2] 16/3/2015 16:03

Looks like March contracts expiry may be causing this??

[superg1] 16/3/2015 12:06

Awol

Interesting re Quindell. Time to get the toaster positioned correctly.

[freshvoicem] 16/3/2015 11:50

TC? Or TW?

[awolagain] 16/3/2015 10:57

I wonder what the possible outcome of this could be....is it possible that TC and his 'gang' could be at last taken out of the system...

"Quindell (QPP) was up 25.26% to 124.63p after Business Secretary Vince Cable and Treasury Select Committee chairman Andrew Tyrie wrote to the Financial Conduct Authority for information on the company's share price collapse last April. Quindell's shares plunged after a US short seller posted allegations about the business online"

[awolagain] 16/3/2015 10:34

"The concept of the "Big 3" in lithium was valid for almost two decades but now is as antiquated as the idea of the "Big 3" automakers...."
More issues for SQM and the business model under attack

[jbe81] 16/3/2015 08:39

Great opportunity for anyone with spare cash

[joeblogg2] 16/3/2015 08:28

Down over 5% on a few trades ??