Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[awolagain] 05/3/2015 07:46

The more I read the more I dislike them...I hope we don't have to get too far into bed with these people or they will shaft us and then cut our tongues out! All with a smile on their face!

[1madmarky] 05/3/2015 06:18

I thought from last years agm that Bullmine had pulled the plug on iodine production? Might be wrong.

[1madmarky] 04/3/2015 21:24

Yes the price for 2015 had me scratching my head as well as I could not see how it could be lower, but yes the average could be lower and we can still get a good price for Iodine compared to our cost price. Thanks SG

[superg1] 04/3/2015 21:17

I agree, crafty sods. So I did the adding up to cut out the fog.

[naphar] 04/3/2015 21:13

I think it suited them to leave the comment vague!

[superg1] 04/3/2015 20:45

Naphar

I was just clarifying the apparent misread by pheonixs. On the first read I thought that myself.

The "lower prices in 2015 compared to 2014" comment.

What they mean is lower average price for the year not an expected price drop from here during 2015. As we have started off just above 32, then without significant price rises in H2, they are not going to beat last year's average price.

On an equal split Q1 $32, Q2, $36, Q3 $40 and Q4 $42 would still mean an average price drop compared to 2014, but in those circs a 31% iodine price increase over the year


phoenixs 4 Mar'15 - 12:18 - 30518 of 30528 5 0 Moderate | Ban

I am scratching my head re the results from SQM and I suspect that they are spouting b......t re next year.

They state that they expect "lower prices in 2015 compared to 2014" they expect demand to "grow by 3%" and we know that other companies have either stopped producing, sold their stock or gone out of business. How does it all add up??

[naphar] 04/3/2015 19:25

Unless we were to have a roughly mirror image price reversal, in which case the 2015 average should be roughly the same as 2014, ignoring volume mix of course.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 19:17

The $52 per kg relates to H1 2013.

SQM state just under $50 average for the full year 2013.

They say iodine and derivatives but it seems it's a simple revenue/tonnage situation to get the answers.

2013 $461m/9,300t = $49.57 per kg average price

2014 $335.4m/8,800t = $38.11 per kg average price.

There was only slight variation on he amount of sales H1 v H2 for 2014.

If they get an average of $32 per kg this H1, even with $42 per kg H2 that would still put them under the 2014 average at $38 per kg.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 17:32

SQM comments

SQM was not immune to lower prices, and our prices dropped just over 23% in 2014 when compared to 2013. It is anticipated that average prices will continue to decline throughout 2015. We believe we are the lowest cost producer
in Chile, thus, we are well positioned to face this challenging environment.

A careful read needed here.

As I recall the 2013 average price was quoted by them as around $52 per kg (I'll check)

They state the price drop was just over 23% for 2014 so $40 per kg average.

As 2015 has started off just over $30 per kg, then yes it is likely the average price will drop in 2015 as they would need $50 per kg for H2 to go over a $40 average (rough calcs).

So a bit of a play on words. Their revenue will fall as the average price across the year should be less this year than in 2014.

[engelo] 04/3/2015 15:40

Don't know whether posted before, but an iodine report that costs money and probably well out of date:



However the headings are worth a look for iodine applications. IOF mentioned if you look hard :-)

[engelo] 04/3/2015 15:37

SG: very interesting re sqm. As you say they don't sound very sound :-)

Liked the 'even stockbrokers' in the last sentence :-)

[superg1] 04/3/2015 14:08

It's more or less in the Chile news daily, but I didn't want to swamp you guys with it.

The SQM edge

One of the most important edges that have emerged from the case Penta is to SQM, where delivery of money from the firm investigates various politicians through ideologically false ballots.

This has impacted on the bonds of the company, particularly in foreign markets. For example, the SQM paper issued by the firm in October 2014 has traded very little this year. Between late January and yesterday only five transactions, where no exceeded US $ 1 million, with a spread between 230 and 241 basis points were made.

While the experts said that the debt of the firm, is punished from the Cascades case where the driver was involved, Julio Ponce Lerou, the edge of Penta case came to confirm this.
In fact, they noted that foreign institutional investors have reduced their exposure to these roles as they are concerned the possible implications that could have the court case.

For actions, but have rented 7.07% in 2015, analysts see a possible risk.

If the inquest comes to involve executives or board members SQM, this will cause reputational impact on the company. If so, investors would lower their exposure to securities, dropping action. Even stockbrokers reduce their projections if this scenario materializes.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 14:06

The other SQM news a few days back

Santiago, Chile, February 26, 2015.-
SQM-A, SQM-B) informed that at the request of the Chairman of the Board of SQM S.A., an extraordinary Board meeting was held today to analyze the matters that have been divulged by the press in recent weeks and are the subject of ongoing public cases. In such meeting, the Board resolved to establish a special committee comprising of Board members Wolf Von Appen, José María Eyzaguirre Baeza, and Juan Antonio Guzmán Molinari, to investigate such matters. The Board delegated to said committee all of the authority needed to undertake the assignment, and instructed the committee to retain such independent external advice as it deems appropriate at its discretion. Upon performance of the investigation, said committee shall report back to the Board of SQM S.A. with conclusions and proposal of action, if any.

[freshvoice] 04/3/2015 12:32

phoenix
Er... I hope IOF may be part of that?

[phoenixs] 04/3/2015 12:18

I am scratching my head re the results from SQM and I suspect that they are spouting b......t re next year.

They state that they expect "lower prices in 2015 compared to 2014" they expect demand to "grow by 3%" and we know that other companies have either stopped producing, sold their stock or gone out of business. How does it all add up??

where are all the iodine supplies going to come from to satisfy the increasing demand and at what price?

[madchick] 04/3/2015 11:51

SQM 4th Quarter Earnings


Revenues from sales of iodine and derivatives during the twelve months ended December 31, 2014 were US$335.4 million, a decrease of 27.2% compared to US$461.0 million generated for the twelve months ended December 31, 2013.
Iodine and derivatives revenues for the fourth quarter of 2014 amounted to US$72.4 million, a decrease of 29.4% compared to US$102.6 million achieved during the fourth quarter of 2013.

Iodine market growth was approximately 3% during 2014, and we believe that total market demand reached approximately 31,600 metric tons, of which SQM had a market share of approximately 26%. Demand was led by growth in the X-Ray contrast media and pharmaceutical industries. We expect to see demand growth of over 3% in 2015, in part related to lower prices. As anticipated, prices in the iodine market felt significant pressure during 2014 when compared to recent years.

SQM was not immune to lower prices, and our prices dropped just over 23% in 2014 when compared to 2013. It is anticipated that average prices will continue to decline throughout 2015. We believe we are the lowest cost producer in Chile, thus, we are well positioned to face this challenging environment.
Our sales volumes in the iodine business line decreased approximately 5% for the twelve months ended December 31, 2014 when compared to the twelve months ended December 31, 2013. Going forward, we expect that our sales volumes will increase as we work to regain some market share.
Gross profit for the Iodine and Derivatives segment accounted for approximately 24% of SQM’s consolidated gross margin for the twelve months ended December 31, 2014.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 10:46

Escape your shenanigans are shameful re your other avatar.

You were found out, and still refuse to use your blue name I see.

The only thing left now is to ignore you.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 10:00

PGD

I wondered what happened re that one late yesterday (big climb). I'm told it's the BR effect so i assume BR are done or almost done there.

As Is aid before, BR have form for dumping stocks, so if you are in a share where it's in decline and they are in, it's most likely them.

Reporting 1% breaches doesn't seem to be of interest to them.

I have been watching one I like for a while, BR are in it so I have stayed out. It's been on a dive for some time and no reason or news to explain it.

A BB devoid of chatter, and I'll keep an eye out for any change.

[superg1] 04/3/2015 10:00

PGD

I wondered what happened re that one late yesterday (big climb). I'm told it's the BR effect so i assume BR are done or almost done there.

As Is aid before, BR have form for dumping stocks, so if you are in a share where it's in decline and they are in, it's most likely them.

Reporting 1% breaches doesn't seem to be of interest to them.

I have been watching one I like for a while, BR are in it so I have stayed out. It's been on a dive for some time and no reason or news to explain it.

A BB devoid of chatter, and I'll keep an eye out for any change.

[madchick] 04/3/2015 09:57

"it may open some big doors." Or flood gates?

Right, that's too much flippancy from me for one day (or even a lifetime). I'll get on with something productive....

[jbe81] 04/3/2015 09:42

amazed there is not more buying