Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 05/3/2015 16:31

The relevant Q and A (taken from seeking alpha)

Can someone point out where they actually answered the iodine questions put to them.

Carl Chen

This is Carl Chen stepping in for Ben. So can you talk a little bit about the progress on your cost-saving plan? And what are the other potential cost-saving opportunities have you identified? And just secondly, you mentioned about getting back to that 30% market share for your iodine business, can you please give us color around that?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President

Okay. First of all on our cost, we reduced, last year, cost in the range of $130 million. Of those $130 million, $30 million -- about $50 million were related with the exchange of Chilean peso that became weak compared to the U.S. dollar. During this year, we expect to lower $40 million more over the $130 million. That we estimate about $50 million will be related with the value of the Chilean peso compared to the U.S. dollar. So we think we will continue to diminish our costs even further than what we have already obtained. Regarding iodine, since -- about 2 years ago, we have made note to investors and analysts and market that we're looking forward around to be in the 30% of the whole market. We are, today, in a range of 26%, so still, we have some room of market share to gain.

Giovana Araujo - Itaú Corretora de Valores S.A., Research Division

Okay. And the second question is about iodine prices, you mentioned you're expecting lower prices in 2015. What level of decline or drop do you expect for 2015 to be in the range that we saw in 2014? Or problems that you feel lower than that, right?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President

Well, in the iodine, there are going on a lot of things, because we think, first, that the current prices are affecting some of our competitors. So it will depend much on what happened to them in the market to know -- to have a better reference related to what prices -- how much could decrease. If the maintained production of current competitors, even though they are suffering and we think some of them even losing on a cash-point basis, we think that the volume -- the prices will go down in the range of 10%. If there are some production in the market, that could be lower than that.


Alberto Ariztia - Santander, Equity Research

Patricio, could you please explain us what happened last year in the iodine business, that volumes didn't grow? And you said you plan to gain market share, did you have capacity problems? Or with current prices, do you plan to expand your production lower? And secondly, regarding your potash production capacity, I have understood that you have 2.3 million tons capacity, in which levels did you produce last year and in which level do you intend to be this 2015?

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President

Okay, first of all, iodine. We had a very strong first quarter in 2013. Now if we look at the other quarters compared to the quarters of 2014, we think we gained some volumes. But in this -- not seen if you take the year completely, the first quarter of 2013 was very, very high. If you take that quarter out, then we increase volumes. Regarding the production in Atacama Salar (sic) [Salar de Atacama], we are in the range of 2 million metric tons, so we would continue to be in that range because we have look forward to produce a little bit more SOP. And when you produce a little bit more SOP that goes against MOP, that you earn more money making more SOP.



This bit is about CORFO

Unknown Executive

[indiscernible]

Patricio G. Contesse - Chief Executive Officer and President
We feel [indiscernible] we feel quite confident that we should be coming in a positive position.


hmmmmmm I heard it loud and clear and it's been, uummm err 'over-looked'

[madchick] 05/3/2015 16:28

Transcript is out now

[superg1] 05/3/2015 16:14

I just listened to it again, what a farce.

Twice they completely skirted around answering how they are going to get their 30% market share back.

One analyst read the iodine price news wrong too.

One guy did press them about the Corfo case. Lot's of ums and errs, then a bloke whispering to tell the analyst that SQM are confident. They then end the conference call.

Have a listen. Just register anything in the boxes. The Q and As are from about 5/6 mins on



No expansion plans btw.

[superg1] 05/3/2015 15:56

Awol

In their previous news they said the iodine price drop was part of their strategy to regain market share.

CORFO are trying to rescind SQM lithium leases which accounts for 38% of SQM revenue. Cosayach have a large acreage for lithium next to SQM.

Cosayach have a seawater pipeline heading to where SQM need one. Cosayach are being hit with massive fines and court orders.

In 2001 those issues near finished Cosayach and SQM were intent on taking them out.

Cosayach built up an iodine inventory on the back of theft of SQM's water. So SQM have dragged the iodine price down to stifle their cash flow, reducing the ability of the chances of Cosayach and RB surviving. In doing so they have significantly reduced the value of both businesses.

This is about the only chance SQM have left to flourish themselves, the only lever the have is strangling the cash flow of others while they are down.

They did state they believe some producers are now operating at a loss, which is what we have said for some time.

All had ideas of expansion in the boom, SQM are trying to kill them off. If they don't succeed SQM's dominance is under threat.

SQM are taking a big hit on revenues themselves in this price squeeze. They have no need to drop the price, they more or less control the market price.

If they said iodine is $45 per kg, then that's what it would be.

[superg1] 05/3/2015 15:24

That has to be their worst yet, their confidence has gone. What a pile of doo doo.

Seriously.... are those major company analysts?

You will see later what I'm going on about.

[tim3416] 05/3/2015 15:23

Just listened to that. I thought those asking questions were very easy on the management whilst getting some very woolly replies! Shame no one asked about the various issues in Chile and how they were going to deal with them.
Edit- sorry SG just read your 2nd post above after posting, couldn't agree more, the analysts were useless!

[awolagain] 05/3/2015 15:20

Why are they playing the price down...whats the game there?

[superg1] 05/3/2015 15:19

My question is do the analyst have guns to their heads while asking the questions.

One just replied "perfect" to his questions which they didn't answer ??

Again a question about iodine and getting their market share back.

Just finished, and what a complete bunch of wombats the analysts are.

All seem too frightened to push for an answer, or they are just plain incompetent.
More on that later when seeking alpha do a transcript.

[superg1] 05/3/2015 15:15

SQM

Plenty of BS being played and an apparent avoidance of one question.

They are talking perhaps lower iodine prices by about 10%, but lots of um and ers.

They add that they think that some competitors are already loss making at the current price (I agree).

[superg1] 05/3/2015 13:52

The suggestion from the crow's nest is that it seems the supply is drying up, or seems that way today.

[awolagain] 05/3/2015 13:16

Yep....sucked up right away....no delay!

[freshvoicem] 05/3/2015 13:07

Some one obviously was waiting for it.

[awolagain] 05/3/2015 12:36

It didn't make it move...interesting these last couple of weeks with the trades!

[cyberbub] 05/3/2015 12:21

Biggish sell there, Advfn shows as 'delayed' but it was only delayed by 3 mins!

[engelo] 05/3/2015 11:21

Warning: this share can go up as well as down :-)

Could be that some are expecting something out of March 6th, or could be some are seeing deeper :-)

At the very minimum we must get RNS for Q1 production start of April, not too far away now, and the Nomad can't stop it :-)

[superg1] 05/3/2015 09:12

I haven't been in contact recently but I know someone who has.

If I get the chance re the conference call I'll listen in, but seeking alpha do a transcript anyway which should appear today.

[engelo] 05/3/2015 08:59

Still think the hearing of Feb 19th should have been rNSed. Investors not reading this thread don't officially know the meeting even took place or the outcome of it.

Wonder if they will manage a progress update for March 6th?

Presumably objector will not be allowed to make any new points, just put some positive spin on those already made.

Perhaps allowed to comment on IOF's case presented at the hearing??

[joeblogg2] 05/3/2015 08:40

Super. good to hear Scrut. is around and a very decent chap. All being well hopefully all get together at the AGM this year and IOF more than delivering on many fronts!!

[rogerbridge] 05/3/2015 08:36

SG, are you listening in on the conference call ?
It's nice to know that Scrut's in contact, please give him my best regards, I do miss his posts.

[superg1] 05/3/2015 08:29

Yes Roger

That's a change from then claiming to be the lowest cost producer.

I sent the SQM team a question yesterday re a comment in their news. It does give contact details for questions.

Unsurprisingly there was no reply.

I didn't give them many avenues to respond though, by quoting previous form 20 F facts.

A simple clarification on the Neuve Victoria comment, as they never mentioned the closure of the Iris plant at the location, but talk of expansion. Expansion of an area they were due to abandon last year?

Then asking about sales v production as they quoted 28% of the market a few months ago which matches their sales, but now they quote 26% which seems to match the reduced production.

It will be interesting to see what the clueless analysts ask SQM today in the conference call, and what BS they spout in response.

Following SQM and the analysts is a real eye-opener to confirm Scrut's comment about never trust what an analyst says.

He is about, and a nice guy, but and with his courtesy and respect, I see why he should stop engaging with foul-mouthed morons on these BBs.

[rogerbridge] 05/3/2015 07:59

Good research G, it looks increasingly positive on the iodine price front for IOF. Who knows what the iodine price will be in a few months time. I like the SQM statement "we believe we are the lowest cost producer in Chile" the world now knows that IOF are the lowest cost producer in the world.