Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 24/1/2015 09:11

Turkmenistan

We listed it too



The US comment came up on just one website, so I informed certain city folk to check their client investment risk in that country.

[superg1] 24/1/2015 09:07

The only other major source I'm aware of is Turkmenistan. I keep an eye on it. They od produce small amounts

They have said for many years they are going to build the odd plant. A tender came out about 4 years ago to build one. But it never happened, then more recently a tender for a small plant producing not a lot.

That country is all about oil and gas. Near the revenue of Dragon Oil comes out of that country.

Some time in 2014 the US added that country to their countries of concern list.

I didn't mention it at the time bit I did find the tender winner. :-)

So they as a major producer of iodine are a very low risk at this time.

[1madmarky] 24/1/2015 07:53

Thanks SG, your research continues to be quite remarkable and all pointing to an exceptional 2015 for IOF. Perhaps that's why we had the out of character confident comment at the bottom of the RNS... GLA

[writz] 24/1/2015 07:31

sg, sorry, I meant sources outside of Chile.

[rogerbridge] 23/1/2015 19:42

Events building up nicely here. Great research SG, iodine production in Chile looks grimmer by the week.
Hopefully, the iodine price will continue its recent upward movement as gradually shortages become apparent and buyers bid for supplies.
Water around the corner and the review due shortly.

[albany30] 23/1/2015 17:41

Very interesting, superg. Will try to follow up and see what comes out.Poor old maca must be worrying that his tracks might not be as covered up as he thought.

[neddo] 23/1/2015 17:05

has to be one of your imbeciles, nuts

[superg1] 23/1/2015 16:25

Od

You seem to understand the Chile court system. I have just had a question asking if it's upper or lower court.

I assume upper from your post.

Decision is on the second level "Corte Suprema" which means this will evolve rapidly.

No altera la conclusión anterior, - they agree with the first level decision - good. The area is Urban and will be used for the port.

What is the deciding factor re timelines as you understand it?

Having had a quick read, it seems to me it's at the top of the court system in do or die mode.

[superg1] 23/1/2015 16:19

Writz

There aren't any other viable sources, that's the key. One area has good ppms but the country is high risk and do little to exploit it.

[woodpeckers] 23/1/2015 15:28

Thanks for your reply SG.

[writz] 23/1/2015 15:27

A dramatic fall in Chile's production would prompt a search for other sources and bring IOF into focus as a possible target of acquisition - so there may be other ways besides production that the share price could benefit. Not necessarily the best way forward, but another way the dynamics could change.

[superg1] 23/1/2015 15:24

They can from existing plants if fracking drops or moves to other areas.

If the price goes up demand goes up as do orders so they would build to fit any demand.

Perhaps they already have expansion planned and are aware of the building Chile issues, as are the Japanese iodine investors in Chile.

[bazzerp] 23/1/2015 15:00

¨ Yes all looks good, but we can't directly exploit rising iodine prices until we get more plants online and exceed the amount that is required for IOChem's products... need the strategic review ASAP! ¨

Cyberhub - I agree. All very well for the Chileans to start failing, but we do need to be able to produce & sell the Iodine to be able to take advanatage of rising price. I just hope the Water issue does provide funding & a speedy rollout of more production.

[superg1] 23/1/2015 14:43

Thinking on it further.

I thought it was to do with certain sectors to mine which would mean they may have other areas left with just reduced production.

As it's the pipeline they could be finished overnight as they are 100% reliant on it.

I love Chile :-)

A left field situation I hadn't spotted, so not factored in prior to the last 48hrs. IOF were unaware too.

I've no idea yet why Cosayach are in court again.

[superg1] 23/1/2015 14:22

Od

re Algorta.

It makes sense now after a bit of an exchange. The one puzzling word is 'port' as surely that would be the sea.

It seems the issue is where they have their seawater pipeline. So from the details it seems it should never have gone in there and they will lose their water supply if it goes wrong for them. Without that they can't produce.

Sorting another route or pipeline tends to take years and costs a lot of money.

So in theory, at any point, depending on the court decision, Algorta production could literally switch off overnight. They have no water rights, they are stuffed if they lose.

[superg1] 23/1/2015 14:15

Aha

Finally the oil price mystery is solved, a big inheritance tax evasion.

[neddo] 23/1/2015 12:40

Oil surges after Saudi King's death

This August 21, 2013 photo shows an oil well near Tioga, North Dakota

[superg1] 23/1/2015 12:25

Woody

It's just the way it is. Note IOF motioned the usual Q4 slow down, which is typical in the iodine industry.
Note H1 v H2 last year. That's why I was surprised by the revenue near equalling H1 in H2. The price of iodine was lower too.

It probably all stems from Chile summer season. They do get cold weather problems due to the water leach method.

Sirocco reported such an issue last year re iodine.

Hence my constant pointing to H1 this year, when any production shortage should start to bite subject to inventory level expiry.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/1/2015 12:18

The downside is always 100%.

[che7win] 23/1/2015 12:16

crazy,
I agree with you on piloting one mobile.

The Strategic review also correct course of action to hold off, but there is market uncertainty here.

The market hates that.

We have no evidence of any likely windfall for the water. We are in the dark on that.

We have no knowledge on growth this year - market in the dark.

No broker notes for the best part of a year.

Hence the upside here is not known by the wider market, let alone shareholders.

In a way, we know growth is coming - even from the 5 full-scale plants we have, to what degree from there on, who knows.

As a shareholder, I think risk of surprise looks good at this price point, I'm most interested in the business performance at this juncture, the market can do it's own thing but I know if growth keeps coming, the share price looks silly.

[crazycoops] 23/1/2015 12:04

I have just been catching up this weeks' posts - SG, the depth of your research is incredible, thank you for sharing.

I want to pick up on whoever said the Strategic Review is required in short order. I disagree.

They shouldn't publish a Strategic Review until they know how it will be funded. Capital injection from a water JV is one possibility and it doesn't involve dilution or debt. There are other funding options but best to wait for the water JV IMHO. There is also the possibility of an off-take agreement for surplus iodine production beyond the in-house needs of IOC. Surely best to wait for a higher iodine price before making such an agreement?

This said, I would like to see them piloting at least one Mini IOsorb unit while we are waiting for the Strategic Review. Best time for them to be talking about the Strategic Review IMHO is at the presentations that follow full year results.

Back to lurking!

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 23/1/2015 11:59

"I am wondering who the muppet is who keeps giving SG the red thumb. If they disagreed, you would think that they would say why."

It's not me.

It's an interesting question though.

There are very few blues who post bearishly on here. I can recall only a small handful. So my guess is it's actually "one of your own".

[woolybanana] 23/1/2015 11:40

Out of interest, how goes the IOF water project; has the appeal been heard, has the nasty old man who is raising problems been put down?

[joestalin] 23/1/2015 11:08

I am wondering who the muppet is who keeps giving SG the red thumb. If they disagreed, you would think that they would say why.

[bobsworth] 23/1/2015 11:06

Reckon ACT is a sitting duck!

Just like Cosayach, RB Energy, Bullmine etc!