Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 14/1/2015 15:30

Aha I found a 4th to take it up to equal IOF earnings this year.

Someone called Tungsten which takes the MC's combined to £880 mill and all 4 now hit IOF's revenue this year. Trouble is by adding them I need toi add another £11 mill to the loss count.

So £16m rev £44 mill losses, combined MC £880 mill.


Meb I'll have a look.

All we have quoted is what was in the presentation. There is a split.

One amount was permit/depot related for ND and Montana and another for a 50/50 share of the Atlantis aquifer.

$10m and $5m. So it depends what is wanted, but all of that was on offer before some time back. Water disposal may feature too as in news.

It all depends on the desire for enhanced cash or royalties/revenue sharing and agreeing in on it.

[meb123] 14/1/2015 15:19

Ok , reason why I touch on this is that someone from the other thread has cast doubt on the amount expected , ie it will be considerably less than what has been suggested here . Obviously no suprise that is said there - I guess we dont have to wait long now and we shall see :-)

[superg1] 14/1/2015 15:16

I just checked 3 to make sure my figures weren't too mad.

3 shares, £6 mill revenue between them 2013, combined MC of £600 mill with £33 mill losses.

£5.42 mill less revenue between them compared to 5 years ago.

IOF MC £42 mill 2013 revenue £12.4 mill 2014 (£16.5 mill). So double the revenue of the 3 combined. IOF 2013 losses £2.31 mill 2013. 1/14th of the losses they incurred.

5 year revenue growth. £3.38 mill to £11.84m. Revenue up 3.5 times (2014 near x 5).

Those 3 shares revenues about halved in the same period.

So for the guys that look just at the figures, which one has good growth, and is good value?

[superg1] 14/1/2015 14:47

Meb

I think you will find that point is in the same historic posts saying, only 1 objection point, 2 objections binned etc.

Absolutely I believe talks will be in play. If they were not how can you press on with funding for a project when you don't have the permit. In fund raising scenario it makes sense to wait for the permit first.

It's no big secret as the prior offer is spelt out in a presentation. I'd favour Hal but consider they are not alone. There weren't last time either

[meb123] 14/1/2015 14:40

Sand
Lets hope so. In fact Dr Bellamy can pull off a multi million bagger on water , I would have thought thats good value for money

[sandbag] 14/1/2015 14:28

Meb,

Hopefully this guy has been doing something to earn his keep:

[superg1] 14/1/2015 13:50

Cal

Do you recall my impossible to fail posts. When shares just have promise with a few years off to achieve that, they can't fail.

It's when they hit actual delivery or stumbles that the price seems to be it's lowest.

The difference between now and 30p well before most arrived and per the 17/18p start base IOF had not a lot but RHPS had tipped it taking it to 30p.

Not a lot of dilution since a massive difference in the business and bought for 30p recently, lovely jubbly.

I can point to 5 or so AIM shares with a combined MC of over £1 billion, but added together they don't IOF's current revenue or potential growth in revenue of the next year, It's nuts but that's the way it is.

That one could go 10 times it's value now and still be worth less than the odd share that have imo nothing at all

Another share where the MC is less than the BOD's wages.

So I'm busy picking out the next nuts shares but ones that have potential. They should go nuts at some point.

The thing I like about IOF is it actually is delivering, slower than expected but ignoring those known factors just look at the revenue growth.

2009 £3.4 mill to £16.6m in 2014.

So they just got £16.6 mill revenue through a business they paid £5.6 mill for.

'the Board expects 2015 to be an exceptional year'

I think folks forget what they have achieved in such a short time and during a global financial meltdown.

[joestalin] 14/1/2015 13:50

They would be foolish not to have made progress down that road. I think that would be commercially sensitive information, though. So they will probably say nothing until an RNS can be released.

[meb123] 14/1/2015 13:47

Does anyone have insight on whether or not IOF are in discussions at this moment in time with (say Haliburton ) such that when the permit is granted, its full steam ahead with that project.

[che7win] 14/1/2015 12:53

Calmar,
The problem with TUNG is you are paying for all that hoped for growth upfront, whereas IOF you are not.

IOF share price is not pricing in any growth at all, so if our plans surprise, then share will react positively.

[freshvoice] 14/1/2015 12:12

Ooh JS you are so cynical, anyone would think AIM is crooked! LOL

[joeblogg2] 14/1/2015 12:12

I doubt if he even knows we are a listed company in the UK. The company is on a steadier footing and interest in the company from institutions will start to come as they start to understand the iodine picture with regards to SQM/Chile over the last year.

[joestalin] 14/1/2015 12:05

10% up this morning. Mr Carlisle about to capitulate? At the risk of being cynical, he would want to buy as many as he could (or someone sponsoring him) before he makes the announcement.

[woodpeckers] 14/1/2015 12:01

Anyone would think we are about to get some good news.... ;)

[jbe81] 14/1/2015 11:51

Agreed Calmar. Just a matter of when. I think the share price will rise significantly in the next couple of months. Then depending on the company's performance and the price of Iodine may have a very good year, if not 2016 should be good. Either way a v good buy at these prices.

[calmar1992] 14/1/2015 11:17

Che,You mention TUNG mcap being ridiculous. That's not ridiculous for the AIM market. The AIM market is meant to be forward looking. The reason IOFs price isn't forward looking is because of a lack of credibility that we won't achieve what is being said. That's why I think the significance of IOF hitting the yearly target has been too understated!We will shoot up when institutions get involved like they did two years ago. When will institutions get involved? When a 2015 outlook is produced. When will that report be produced? When IOF know how much cash they will have in 2015. When will they know how much cash they will have? When we know if we have the water rights or not.It's all very simple. It appears to be a matter of not if but when with iof.

[cyberbub] 14/1/2015 11:11

That's a bit more like it today...

[superg1] 14/1/2015 10:20

Good post Che.

A key point in OK is the pipeline disposal system which brings down costs.

Woods county is an oil hotspot and mid states do seem to have the sweet spot. A major point is that there are many levels that have been drilled and will continue to be drilled. The Woodfood is one example and that is where much of the iodine had been coming up from in the past.

The Miss boom came and they found iodine levels there are high too in places.

I believe IOF are with Sandridge and many others but they should be a feature for a few years unless they hit some sweet iodine spots.

[che7win] 14/1/2015 09:39

Writz,
See, what the bears don't understand with their $40 oil predictions is the difference between pumping the oil and drilling.

They also don't understand that Miss lime play is complex in geology, so I agree with those that say it needs careful drilling.

Here's the thing - Sandridge will continue drilling this year - they have stated that (we aren't partnered with them).

On Mid_states last quarter results ( they supply IO2):
"Turning to our focus areas, the recent Miss Lime well performance together with significantly lower operating costs demonstrate the value and potential of our exceptional acreage position possessions out there. As indicated in the updated Miss Lime slide, on our website we now have 189 wells online with an impressive 30-day peak average production rate of 575 BOE per day which we believe is the best of all operators in the entire play.

Our results are continuously improving as nearly 50% of our wells drilled at peak 30 day rates greater than 500 barrels of equivalent a day. These wells offer compelling rates of return at $80 oil strip of about 80% rates of return and off a cash margins over $40 a barrel.

As we refine the use of our 3D that we have over our entire acreage position in the Miss and applying our integrated geoscience, drilling completion and reservoir engineering approach we are able to choose optimal locations and drill the best intervals. This results in increasing EURs, significant down spacing opportunities and growing the reserves and resource base reconfirming the longevity and leadership position within the play.

Our concentrated acreage position and strong salt water disposal and electrical infrastructure also allow us to drive operating costs lower, efficiently develop our acreage and enhance margins further. We believe that these results coupled with our hedges will allow us to protect our EBITDA in an uncertainty near term price environment. "

On Chesapeake, our other larger oil company, they are much stronger financially. They are awash with cash and they operate an enormous brine pipeline.

Anyone that wants more info in relation to what this means to IOF, feel free to ring the company 😄

[che7win] 14/1/2015 09:13

TUNG,
Revenue £10.2m, loss £14.6m, market cap £300m.

Seriously, someone is having a laugh.

I'll stick with IOF, where a few million pounds profit and any growth justifies double the price IMHO (I.e. Easily achievable).

Iodine moves up $10 from here, then gross margins probably double (if we have paired our costs back), you can see how 100p can be obtained.

[ansana] 14/1/2015 08:53

RH he us obviously asleep on the job!

[rhwillcoll] 14/1/2015 08:46

"Act-tung" should be paying more attention.

[che7win] 14/1/2015 08:39

Writz,
The article states that US Energy Department has said output would rise by 600,000 barrels a day this year to 9.3m b/d and by 200,000 b/d to 9.5m b/d in 2016.

The only way that happens is through continued fracking.
Our partners are fracking away, no one wants to blink first.

Oil is starting to influence other commodities such as copper overnight which will depress Chile exports and therefore lower the Peso against the Dollar or keep the trend going.

That helps Chile Iodine competitors.

ACT - TUNG, those results are atrocious, more losses than turnover, you think TUNG is a good investment?

[superg1] 14/1/2015 08:16

A certain someone seems to be able to wind a few up, just filter. Filter can leave a list of lines but I smile at them because obviously you guys get to such folk.

The other reason I smile is due to a long standing method of attaching a mental picture or words when I speak to such folk.

Often that can be just an anagram of their name or attaching an image to match that etc. I find it works well.

EG for one on filter all I see is Ar....... c.e wynd ...bot.

Simple things eh ! and in that particular case I think it's rather apt.

So filter (most have), or engage it, on it's own thread.