Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 21/1/2015 18:20

Stripper wells



Strippers are scavengers who make a living by resuscitating once-prolific oil fields to coax as little as a bathtub full of crude a day from each well. Collectively, the strippers operate almost half-a-million oil wells that produced more than 730,000 barrels a day in 2012, the most recent year for which figures were available.

That’s one of every 10 barrels produced in the U.S. -- equivalent to the entire output of Qatar, or half the crude Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA), Europe’s largest energy company, pumps worldwide every day. With oil prices down 58 percent since June, these smallest of producers will be the first to succumb to the Great Oil Bust of 2015.


I thought all the strippers had gone to North Dakota but it seems they were a different type, after oil workers money, not oil itself.

[superg1] 21/1/2015 18:11

I am always keep TA in mind, as at the end of the day it's the easiest method of working out when some are going to sell and buy especially when a trend is set.

Another important factor isn't what you know about a share but what the market doesn't.

EG the oil price crash has many thinking production would drop, but production is halved because of drilling, if it stops then production shoots up.

Also they are 100's of gas wells that have been running for some time which also throw out iodine rich brines.

The market thinks there is an over production of iodine, but the reverse is true.

Just like all commodities the actual reversals take time to embed themselves.

In 6/12 months time, assuming demand stays the same there should be shift in oil production, due to the 100's of marginal players and marginal areas that go offline.

It's like an oil tanker trying to stop, turn then get up to speed again. Reaction times for the commodity over and under supply are slow, but the market can be swift.

Last time that happened it hit $147. You can't just switch mass production on a and off.

EG

I was reading about stripper wells (aka marginal wells), which are old wells taken over by small outfits squeezing out the last drops of oil.
It's said they form 10% of US production.

They said if you close a stripper well most can never re-start as the silt up and would need an uneconomical rework.
The choice can be to run at a loss, or know that if you shut it down, it's probably gone forever.

So in theory I expect a number of the low end stripper wells to disappear if prices stay low for H1. They can't be turned back on if things improve, and such operators can't add further re-working of others due to the oil price circs.

[testuser123] 21/1/2015 17:55

On the subject of smart money, anyone else been following OTC? The 100k buy on the 15th and the 131k on the 9th stand out compared with the usual volumes. Looks like someone, based in the states, is positive on the company's outlook.

[rhwillcoll] 21/1/2015 16:25

che7win: I'd start to worry if it was more than a small punt :-)
"Dont catch a falling axe with a nigerian holding the handle" (ouch!).

[che7win] 21/1/2015 15:43

Superg,
The charts reveal market conscensus, you can see the start of an uptrend here, that would indicate to me that the conscensus is that these are oversold.

Charts reveal insider buying, smart money will be well ahead of the markets knowledge.

The trading is zigzag, from here we should see buyers coming in if the chart is to continue in the uptrend.

The last few RNSs have been positive and there are plenty of good news items that could propel us upwards. I would expect to see 70p by summer time, but a move up into the 40s in the short term - if we are to follow a U shape recovery.

Heartwells timing must be the poorest I have seen in a long time, every time he appears the stock moves up.

[jbe81] 21/1/2015 15:40

Definitely time to buy! Surprised Mr B isn't helping himself to a few more

[superg1] 21/1/2015 15:33

On the short side (Ignoring the Australia IOF Investa Office Fund, kindly provided by Shroder), following the recent news and spike, some poor fella short, closed around 100k shares.

Pre close of that short TW was trying to knock IOF and shroder appeared out of the blue with his false short chart,.

Then came the truth, also known as an rns, right when we said it would, and exactly what we said it would say.

325 to 350 hit.

1 point of 1 objection valid, which point was valid, and which objection. All as shown in the rns.

[superg1] 21/1/2015 15:25

If anyone noticed when the good news came, folks such as those disappear completely. They then re-appear on re-trace with lies to get responses and try to scare a few.

The same old cycle time and time again on many shares, day in day out, week in week out,.........................

Just put them on filter.

In most cases they have no position or interest they just want attention, full stop.

You know such folk lie it's been proved time and again, and in detail recently.

Click the arrow next to their name, 6th item down click filter.

If you do that and such folk have threads, those threads disappear too.

Some don't respond as they have no idea that someone has posted, and have no interest in their posts.

[captain_kurt] 21/1/2015 14:47

Must be time to buy if heartwell is back with his BS

[che7win] 21/1/2015 14:47

Rhwillcol,
Watching Afren, it's in a downtrend but some opportunities there for quick trades.

Don't have the nerve myself...

[joestalin] 21/1/2015 14:41

phoenix, the Greek elections are on Sunday 25th.

I can foresse the Euro falling against most currencies.

[rhwillcoll] 21/1/2015 14:40

Just bought a few Afren (AFR) at 22p: it has been heavily shorted and they are
in merger talks with Seplat (SEPL). The share price looks crazily low right now, but who
knows? A short-term punt for me. Please dyor.

[heartwell] 21/1/2015 14:36

oh dear. No mention of cashflow, nearly end of Jan and no growth plans for 2015. I guess everything depends on water.
Correct Hur. Mr Big got hit on his swiss trade. Guess who is selling to cover his losses? lol

[phoenixs] 21/1/2015 14:21

Just a little off topic, can anyone see the Euro doing anything but continuing to fall against the US $?

[superg1] 21/1/2015 14:09

Need to do some reading first to catch up. It's had a bit of a run in recent times on the SP, I suspect it was an overhang clearing. I haven't had time to take a proper look at it recently.

I think deltaR that posts here from time to time probably knows it inside out.

I believe he was the one I had comms with about it around 3/4 years ago

[superg1] 21/1/2015 13:55

ob

Buyers create the charts not the charts creating the buys.

If you have a load of TA guys waiting on a drift until the gap is filled to buy, then the chart bounces when it hits the gap because those folks buy thinking it will turn. Their buys make the turn which then convinces them the gap was an obvious turning point.

Charts to me are just a silent signal where TA folk buy, which then confirms the signal etc. They then wait for it to hit the top of the trend line and sell, cresting the turn and confirming to them that charts are right.

No different to a dedicated bunch saying right all buy, then right all sell.

If one has enough muscle in any particular share an individual can create the move more or less at will.

Funds buying or selling aggressively can mess upset the trends, as can major news.

That's why charts are so reliable on bigger companies as there are so many trading the chart trigger points. It would be unusual for a TA guy to hang in their for a break out, they tend to act after any break out, not before.

Folks say "who's selling" on news that's easy, traders.

That's why so many got caught on the franc/euro situation. It had a cap which meant it couldn't possibly break out, so billions was piled into it short for a guaranteed return. Ummmmm..... well that was the plan anyway.

[woodpeckers] 21/1/2015 13:26

One bottoms enough for me, let's head for that gap at 38p instead. :)

[odvod] 21/1/2015 13:04

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Just bored so I look at the chart. It might be an orientation but no one should "believe" in charts blindly. That said - closing the gap would form double bottom and a solid base for an upturn.

[obbig60] 21/1/2015 12:51

I've never understood the obsession chartists have with gaps. A gap up occurs when there is a bit of good news that lifts the share price. In this case it was the trading update on the 13th. Yes, share prices go up and down and will sometimes retrace to a previous gap, but to believe that they have to do so is pure superstition.

[joeblogg2] 21/1/2015 12:48

super. I know you have mentioned ITM. Good recent news, are you going to buy any soon? thks

[odvod] 21/1/2015 11:39

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[angel of the north] 21/1/2015 10:12

The only 'honest comment' on the outcast thread in eight days is silence?

[woodpeckers] 21/1/2015 09:57

Thanks SG, plenty of scope for the future then.