Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[monty panesar] 25/1/2015 19:00

Pleased to see a gradually improving trend emerging on Zauba.2000 INR translates into $32.8/kg at current exchange rate. Some of the sales in October/November went through at around $28/Kg.

[superg1] 25/1/2015 16:51

Kaos

If we all spent a day trying to name all the uses for iodine then I doubt we would get half of them.

It's not just about iodine in products, it's used as a catalyst to create other chemicals and compounds.

From baby food to satellite propulsion with a few 1000 other uses in the middle somewhere.

In 2014 they had the 4th conference to discuss hypervalent iodine. ???

Technology tends to be the main growth. If there was enough about they would use it as the catalyst for making tyres.

As Scrut said it's best to target shares where they have worldwide exposure on a number of fronts, so no one event can affect them.

Iodine can not be synthetically copied.

To think, 4 years ago I thought it was just a disinfectant.

[kaos3] 25/1/2015 15:52

Different front. Ioidine is the heaviest "life" element. With very specific use. Science development might bring positive black swan in broadening the use of iodine. Nano chemistry new etc. Rare earth fashion, silver got completely new uses etc. My Hopes.

[superg1] 25/1/2015 09:21

ping ping on the down vote for both of us albany just as I posted. That's escape under his blue name.

[superg1] 25/1/2015 09:17

A bit of a disgrace re escape.

To think they started a thread for 'honest' comment and he is the liar Heartwell.

Does anyone know who escape is?.

I will check my archives.

[sandbag] 24/1/2015 17:57

Kaos,

"IODINE INDUSTRY NEWS UPDATE, DECEMBER 2011
Posted on November 29, 2011
We have recieved our latest price announcement: Because November’s price was estimated at $60.00 for many of our customers, the new December price increase represents, for some, one of our largest increases ever. Others of you received an amended price list once November’s price had been determined, and your increase in November is not as drastic. Either way, in two months prices have soared.

Price: The price of iodine in February of this year averaged $29.87 per kilogram. The new December price averages $67.65 per kilogram, an increase of slightly more than 126% percent. Although $67.65 represents a huge increase in price, IodiTech suspects that we are slightly behind our competitors, who are paying around $69.00 per kilogram.

Demand: Higher prices have not had a great impact on product demand. IodiTech continues to have more order requests than we have material available, a steady trend since right after the earthquake. The intensity of demand for product has greatly lessened, but not the overall demand. Even markets with direct substitutes, such as skin disinfectants, seem to be using at the same demand rate. This is not a positive sign for future prices.

Supply: It appears that the area of Japan where the earthquake was centered produced about half of Japan’s iodine. Primary among these was Kanto Natural Gas. Those iodine production areas do not appear to be returning to the market. Other areas of Japan seem to be supplying about the same amount of iodine to the market. South American mines are operating at full capacity, and although one new and very large mine came on line in October, new material has not really made its way into user’s factories. Part of this new mine’s production will be used to replace a mine that is closing. Overall, the supply of iodine to the user base appears to be at about 85% of the demand. This is not a positive sign for future prices either."

This is what can happen to the price of iodine when there is a shortage. A significant decrease in output from Chile is probably (certainly?) not marginal as any increase in price goes straight to IOF's bottom line.

[spike_1] 24/1/2015 17:56

I can't see the pipeline not being used by someone, it just doesn't make sense! Water is desperately needed up there and Algorta can provide it. My guess is they may be fined, but I find it difficult to believe it would have been built in the first place without the necessary planning consent.

That the water is extracted in a commercial port area seems reasonable to me, and if not, surely it's 'just' a matter of building an extension to further along the coast.

Best wishes - Mike

[superg1] 24/1/2015 17:26

Kaos

I changed the link to the direct version you'll have to use translate.

They are producing and have been since around 2011.

The 2008 date is when they started the environmental process to get a pipeline, it takes years. Hence if they lose their pipeline they are stuffed, they have no fresh water rights.

re

'This all is marginal for IOF anyway'

This is massive in the iodine sector not marginal at all. If they did hit 3000mt that could be 10% of the market finished at the flick of a pumping switch.

The JV partner is a Japanese trading company (Toyota Tsusho) that have vertically integrated iodine sectors. They wanted 14% of the market (world no 2).

If they don't have iodine from Algorta they will have to shop elsewhere.

I'm expecting RB to fold anyway. Algorta was just a recent find and a Brucie bonus if things go wrong for them.

I haven't a clue just yet if Algorta won and the state/port are appealing or Algorta lost and have taken it to the supreme court. I'm hoping it's the latter and will work to find out.

The Industrial minerals comment seems to suggest it's Algorta on the back foot.

Od said if it's upper court then it could be swift. Just confirmed it's been from court decision, to the appeal court, and now supreme court.

It's just information, not a reason to buy. If Algorta lose their pipeline I know what I'm doing.

[superg1] 24/1/2015 17:13

Cross

Some figures for you re Algorta. It relates to H1 2013 and is there only declaration of earnings. It was supposed to be bragging about profit. The silence has been deafening since the price dropped.

At that time SQM reported prices averaging $52 per kg. So 1080 mt (56.6m/52) going on their revenue and thus unlikely they would do 2000mt in H2.

It would seem to suggest their opex was a smidge under $36 per kg. I don't know if that was all-in costs. They talk of the $10.2 mill earnings v the $17.4 mill revenue v opex so perhaps all in it costs more than 36.

I knew I has seen 2000mt for ACF somewhere. That is about their max as they have limited water rights.

The closure of a first half with earnings of US $ 10.2 million accounted for Mining Algorta Norte a milestone in its progress towards the final consolidation of the project. In this period the company had revenues of US $ 56.2 million and operating cost of US $ 38.8 million. The result contrasts with losses experienced $ 2.3 million in the same period last year due to commissioning of the plant was given to the second half of 2012.
The producer of iodine, controlled by the De Urruticoechea family, have managed to operate at design capacity by the end of the first half and is expected to close 2013 with an output of around 3,000 tonnes of iodine and billing level close to the US $ 150 million.
By 2014, the company already reach 4,000 tonnes conceived in the project, which added to the 2,000 tonnes generated by another operation De Urruticoechea family, ACF Minera, produced around 6,000 tonnes would total.

[kaos3] 24/1/2015 17:08

There must be a production ban while the court is sitting. Or are they producing anyway? Will they pay damage since 2008? Or who else will? What does the prosecutor want besides ban?

This all is marginal for IOF anyway

[kaos3] 24/1/2015 16:57

SG above link does not work

[superg1] 24/1/2015 16:55

Od

I'm getting there slowly.

The port where they built the pipeline and pumping station was Mejillones.

On the court timeline, it seems a decision was made on 7th February 2013 so it had clearly been running in 2012 when it was built.

The mid 2013 court was the appeal court.

The listing is now for the Supreme court, which suggests the end game is due, but I can't quite fathom in which direction the original case went.

Going by industrial minerals comment from a Chile contact it sounds like it went against Algorta.

'Market insiders in Chile said that total iodine output has declined, with one source saying that some companies are “in a real mess” regarding their legal rights to continue extracting iodine in the country.'

So with that info do you think it's near a conclusion as it can take years but we now know it's been running from 2012.

I'm now very keen to understand who is appealing what.

Clearly the case is about the pipeline should never have been allowed to be built at the port.

As I said if it goes against Algorta they could be stuffed. I believe the process to get that pipeline, started in 2008, so there is no quick fix for them.

[stevo2011] 24/1/2015 16:31

I see there is now a poster on II posting regarding IOF and all his /her concerns regarding the company and claiming again to have no interest long or short. De ja vu

[superg1] 24/1/2015 16:17

Escape reveal your blue name and post :-)

[superg1] 24/1/2015 16:08

Good post Spike. SQM were very keen not not reveal their plans in conference calls.

Odvod

Some more re Algorta from mid 2013. I'm now wondering the the case has been running since the completion of the pipeline and now it's in the Supreme court a conclusion is not far off (in court terms)




It sounds to me like Algorta gained permission for construction under a rule of mining concessions, but the argument is that the relevant construction is not mining and should never have been allowed as they will never mine the area. It's just a pipeline and a probable pumping station where they claim should not have been giving consent.

[spike_1] 24/1/2015 09:51

rogerbridge - re your: and the review due shortly.

I have no reason to suppose IOF will make public the result of their internal review - why would they, it can only help their competitors (and potential suitors?).

My belief is that they have been keeping expenditure down to an absolute minimum consistent with wringing out best value from their current plants, all at a time when the iodine price has dropped very significantly.

I think they wanted to reach the business year end (Dec) in as financially positive a position as possible.

All the time others have been dumping Iodine on to the market, has not been the best time to expand when profitability seems IOF's chief short term aim. It is easier to resist a take-over if you can be seen to be a small successful business rather than a bigger 'basket case'.

It is said that the Japanese and others have been courting IOF with a view to securing supply, and that they have been willing to fund up-front expansion to enable that. I'm sure this is true, and it may yet happen, but my guess is that IOF want water 'sorted' and an upfront from a JV to fund their iodine expansion.

And that expansion has to be profitable, i.e. the iodine price has at the very least bottomed, a fact not quite yet determined. So whilst I don't expect the result of the review to be made public, its result will manifest itself in publicly announced near-term expansion.

This is all very frustrating, especially for those of us that need near £2 to get our money back never mind making a profit. Having said that, as long as the story remains good, this rock-bottom price is a wonderful opportunity.

I think part of IOF's expansion plan may well include gaining access to its 'own' SWD and pump OUT brine to provide a secure continuous source independent of oil industry 'fluctuations'. This happening may depend on the oil price in the fall, but I can see it happening by year end, once we have additional plant producing profitably, and a water depot coming on stream.

Best wishes - Mike