Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[bogg1e] 14/1/2015 19:24

Che, thanks for clarification.

[stevo2011] 14/1/2015 19:06

Just had a look at their thread, it's all kicking off, interesting RNS - so they do read these boards and the lies that are posted

[stevo2011] 14/1/2015 18:38

He comes across very well

[superg1] 14/1/2015 18:34

Josh

Just had some fun trying to link that I can see you had the same problem.

[josh_ftm] 14/1/2015 18:31

hXXp://www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/3401/iofina-boss-becker-targeting-strategic-growth-3401.html

[josh_ftm] 14/1/2015 18:31

Sorry if mentioned before....

[...]

[che7win] 14/1/2015 18:30

Superg,
First the bears said H1 2014 unexpectedly good performance was due to lampricde contract and it wouldn't be repeated H2, now they are baffled and think lampricde contract split between H1 and H2, that's part reason for the 35% growth.

If that's the case, H2 profits are better than expected, they can't have it both ways!

As one of them said, I'm chuckling.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 18:26

hmmmm where did that link go?

I'll try again. Tom Becker interview out today.

You will have to cut and paste it, it seems ADVFN have stopped the hTTp trick.

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/3401/iofina-boss-becker-targeting-strategic-growth-3401.html

[che7win] 14/1/2015 18:05

Superg,
If Iofina renamed themselves IOFINA.COM, those figures would look extremely respectable for an internet company and we would be valued in the hundreds of millions.

35% growth is stunning, no other words for it.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 17:59

18081

I think the share price lift is due to folks that were sat in hands now buying having digested

When you work it out re growth v a plummeting iodine price then this is a great team with a great business.

What they achieved this year v market price circumstances is very impressive.

In theory revenue should have dropped significantly but against the odds they took it up 35%.

I do recall a reference by us folk to returning contracts due to kick back in during 2014 (and this year), but clearly they have new business too.

All the market circs at the year end are heavily stacked on a pendulum swing to the negative side, yet here we stand 35% up with the iodine industry downside practically non existent as it stands. But with plenty of events that could cause the price rise.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 17:51

I like the way Tom Becker comes across and I'm sure he will grow on the city folk too.

Interview just out

www.proactiveinvestors.co.uk/companies/stocktube/3401/iofina-boss-becker-targeting-strategic-growth-3401.html

He calls the objection something like a 'nip in the road' and they expect to go straight through.

[woodpeckers] 14/1/2015 17:30

Probably will now that I've sold! ;)

[superg1] 14/1/2015 17:05

Call me Sherlock but the 7 million volume on FUM and no price move suggests someone took the overhang off Blackrock. Time to watch to see if it bounces.

[che7win] 14/1/2015 16:51

Boggle,
Couple of points here, Mid-States is highly leveraged, but it is in a sweet spot in Miss lime and supplies IO2.

Profitable down to $40, don't take my word for it, read what the CEO has to say below.
They also have hedges in place (but that's a separate issue)

Hey, maybe the bears will start calling the Mid-States CEO a liar like they do to everyone else around here?

"The Mississippi Lime and Anadarko Basin wells surely would do that. The Miss Lime, as some call it, is relatively shallow and averages about $4 million to drill per well, producing enough to make $40 oil (per barrel) somewhat profitable, he noted."

“We carry too heavy of a debtload,” Hill said. But “the Miss Lime will stand up to any of that and is very profitable at $40 oil.”

"Even in this lower price environment, selected areas in this play still provide acceptable IRRs, or internal rates of returns, to warrant continued drilling, stacking up favorably against more popular resource plays in other parts of the country,” Antry said. “I also know they have been very pleased with the talent pool in the Tulsa area.”

[freshvoicem] 14/1/2015 16:45

Wonder if our sleuth can find out what happened?

[18081] 14/1/2015 16:42

*We can't be sure when they will have a pre hearing meeting but it will be imminent. At that point if Carlisle withdraws, then it would be just days to an Rns saying permit awarded.*


It was mentioned this meeting is taking place today, hence the share price lift.

[che7win] 14/1/2015 16:28

What some people don't seem to understand is that different shale areas have different characteristics.
They paint all areas with the same brush.

They remain clueless as they think some of the shale frackers will take over the weaker hands.
That will only happen if the shale area is economic, Chesapeake is buying back $1 billion dollars of its own stock rather than wait for opportunities to pick off others, ask yourself why, the Bears certainly don't understand.

The Bakken is relatively new, there are fringe areas that will be first to curtail investment, it also has transport bottlenecks.

Miss-line has no issues with transport, close to Cushing.

You will recall that iodine PPM varies massively at relatively short distances.
It's to do with the complex geology.

Same with oil and costs, some of the Bears think they know about oil, they don't.

Fracking costs will decline sharply, not only because they are getting better at it, but because demand and supply eases. Paying the average oil worker $180k might reduce.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 16:28

I'll leave that down to you.

Personally I wanted to see how the market reacted to target hit on iodine and the water situation.

What we had was very little buying knowing what the result was. Typically news came out and in came the sells, probably those trading from high 20's buys, but then buyers seeing the facts were right.

My fear isn't so much the business but investors, they are the ones that cause the big price moves.

In some shares trolls bomb the BBs with lies, and folks sell as they don't know what they are invested in.

So it's not necessarily a better buy at 30p than it would be 40p as each price may represent a significant shift in risk and the gearing situation.

The award of the permit reduces risk as it adds another asset and potential income. So the price could go up purely as that may de-risk the iodine business and have the value to add on it's own.

As in recent posts I consider one single figure MC company has potentially better prospects than a current £250m plus MC company.

If enough people like RHPS pump a share then potentially it takes off, then you get momentum chasers.

My fear re the quiet ones is the likes of RHPS spotting and tipping them, however in some cases the real value is hidden so the risks from that is low.

So now we are at the point where it may go to a hearing. I suppose the best advice is to presume a hearing will happen and if the guy withdraws then that is a big bonus.

I think they will walk it at a hearing due to all the research and the general circs. So IOF are a red hot favourite in betting terms.

The risk is what would the share price be on permit awarded, if that news broke within a week from now.

We can't be sure when they will have a pre hearing meeting but it will be imminent. At that point if Carlisle withdraws, then it would be just days to an Rns saying permit awarded.

$25m revenue growth yoy and probably in profit H2, so just think about iodine I suppose. 15 PE = about £3 mill profit needed.

Some are getting no revenue big losses and need £25 mill profit to hit a 15 PE.

Then the other point of unknown seller. Take RB they have smashed some SPs as they dumped millions of shares onto the market in many small shares.

They are in one I'm watching, that's why I don't mention it.

I suggest severe caution in any small company were BR have a holding, this is the 2nd time they have done it market wide, in recent times.

I now avoid any AIM share where BR have a holding. There is nothing orderly about their exits.

[meb123] 14/1/2015 16:27

Joe, leaving aside iodine , the anticipated revenue from water has not been factored in the price imo . I expect it to shoot up when we know more. By the way Macca and co on the other thread will view this as blatant ramping and their only existence on these threads is to 'protect' potential investors from this thread . If thats true its laughable bordering on ridiculous. Dont we have regulators (ie FCA) who are paid for this.

[bogg1e] 14/1/2015 16:21

che7win
14 Jan'15 - 09:39 - 28718 of 28739 8 0

Our results are continuously improving as nearly 50% of our wells drilled at peak 30 day rates greater than 500 barrels of equivalent a day. These wells offer compelling rates of return at $80 oil strip of about 80% rates of return and off a cash margins over $40 a barrel.

Che, if i understand this right, they refer to oil at $80 per barrel and a margin oof $40 per barrel, so surely this means that at $45 per barrel, midstates are on break even, ie the drop in the price of oil has cancelled out thier profit margin? If so that could be a concern, but i dont want to go all nervy if i havent understood it correctly.

Have i understood the figures correctly? Cheers.

[joeblogg2] 14/1/2015 15:46

Super. when would it be a good idea to buy more , now or wait for hearing to go ahead? thks!!

[superg1] 14/1/2015 15:36

Meb

On the flip side many would like to keep the water in house.

If we start thinking long term the sell out rate for 50% is robbery. So if they don't offer enough, it's time for a big raspberry in their general direction imo.