Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 15/1/2015 10:51

Ridicule

I think one brief seller ended this morning.

Good to see the market likes the news and logic prevails.

No better example than to ignore the lying trolls that seek to cause infirm folk to sell.

IOF said they were on track to hit over the 325 mark just 2 weeks before the year end, and stated that just one weak point of one objection was in play.

Now here is the daft point as it happens on all shares. We now know that they did well on revenues and roughly did $25 mill and a 35% increase.

That typically will be news to the market when they release results and the MMs will probably raise the price.

They do it all the time both ways. Trading updates spell out exact profit warnings and then the share price gets hit. Then comes results day and they kill it again, as if it was a surprise.

[che7win] 15/1/2015 10:42

A downtrend always drags on, even though investors believe the stock undervaled.

No point buying if the stock is going to be cheaper the next day.

It looks like a wall of buyers have been waiting for the turn from the downtrend here, they have bought in strength today, nice volume.

Always a disconnect between fundamentals (which have been surprising to the upside since interim results) and market catching up.

[writz] 15/1/2015 10:35

ridicule, fair play. There's always a mix of sentiment, and I agree with you about the hangover of caution. That lag is precisely where buying opportunities lie, I think.

[captain_kurt] 15/1/2015 10:33

Just gone into auction after a 25k buy.

[brucie5] 15/1/2015 10:30

Bought back at 37 this morning after looking at the CEO's interview on BRR. TBH, between the arguments that go one here and on the other board, I have great difficulty discerning the truth... So I'm really acting on what I sense in the chart, which is a compression of the mas, and bottoming out of share price If it pops to 50p, and forms a base, we will know that the reversal is on. It's a bit tentative atm, but that could very quickly change.

[ridicule] 15/1/2015 10:28

Lets hope everyone is right. If the sellers hold off today it will rise. Even my modest 50k seems to have helped create a shortage of stock. What we need now is for Mr Big to enter the market again to get things moving on the 'buy' side.

[roboben] 15/1/2015 10:20

A rather angular cup and handle?

[y1phr] 15/1/2015 10:15

A welcome gentle rise today.

[superg1] 15/1/2015 09:54

Che

Yes and the picture that gets painted by the media is rather different to the facts.

I've just read a circular (not for us mortals) with details of the bakken costs to produce oil. They got their details from official sources.

Average $42 pb break even. Best county $24 pb break even.

That will be based in old methods as slick water is making the economics even better as shown in that 1100 well study recently posted here. That with many recent news updates by those using the method.

[ridicule] 15/1/2015 09:46

I think you have just remade my point with your first comment WRITZ. With regard to your second point the speed with which sellers appear at present never gives time for readable spikes to appear on the charts. Another way of putting it is: when I was driving on a 3 hour car journey last year, the price moved from £1.20 to £1.50 on a quite innocuous RNS. Something as big as the RNS just released a few days ago would have sent the shares into orbit at that time.

What's changed? Confidence in the company and the fact that millions of PIs money is already locked at much higher prices than IOF can be got for today. It takes time to recover from where we are and the water deal, coupled, most importantly, with profit forecasts (seriously missing at this point)should start to get things moving.

[che7win] 15/1/2015 09:38

The chart looks like it could be moving into a sustained long term uptrend.

The market is coming around to the view we should never have fallen below 50p (at least that's my view).

The potential here is absolutely enormous - market becoming greedy lately with the sustained good news.

My opinion - business turned around and on an equal keel.
Now ready to resume expansion plans.

Strategic growth includes plant and chemical division, mitigating past issues and sustainable growth.

[writz] 15/1/2015 09:29

ridicule, I'm not sure that's a significant problem. If IOF can establish an upward trend it will build confidence and pull more investors in. Right now, the chart doesn't show much evidence of the the spikes and fast retreats that are characteristic of selling into rises.

[ridicule] 15/1/2015 09:22

I have topped up with a further 50k this am between .355 and .36 but most of them did not show on the ADVFN IOF streaming data.

The problem we have, apart from ACT, for some time to come will be disillusioned investors always selling into strength after a rise of just a few pence. This seems crazy to me given the prospects over the 6 months but there we are.

[superg1] 15/1/2015 09:21

A perfectly valid point Octopus. That combined with over-gearing. The trouble in this market is funds seek to avoid risk and bail out of sectors in a hurry.

I can see a few share suffering the 'Black rock effect' now. They imo seem to be the worst in the business for that.

I really like the look of one small share but BR have a holding so I'm steering clear until they act, or enough time passes to show they are remaining in.

They are gaining a bit of a reputation for it, I assume many investors are picking up on it. BR holding = red flag imo when markets are bad.

[octopus100] 15/1/2015 08:56

Problem with IOF (with no disrespect to anyone on here) is that its been owned by punters rather than institutions, hence wild swings in prices and volatility.
I think dropping below 25 cleared out most of the punters and I think some more serious investors have recently got involved which is better for long term price stability.

[superg1] 15/1/2015 08:37

I believe (with good reason) 'the market' is already on the hunt for the oversold shares following in from the recent price crashes.

IOF if spotted should stick out lie a sore thumb, based in good revenue growth when every aspect from the iodine price to the major producing countries exchange rate worked against them.

In those terms I don't think the market realises how significant the exchange rates for Japan and Chile have been re the price drop.

They certainly won't realise much it was orchestrated by SQM (as admitted by them)

[superg1] 14/1/2015 23:16

He certainly is.

Do you recall Shroder and his short chart. That was at the same time TW was calling IOF accounts (in a bear cast) something like a train crash coming re the accounts. Next thing we know IOF revenues are up 35% in a market in freefall.

Perhaps they realised what the actual truth was and tried to create a quick seesion of doubt to close.

Hence my Questions to shroder (who has never confirmed his 'mistake') re his listing of a short chart for an Aussie listed company with the ticker IOF (ASX).

No posts then short doom on the weekend TW was trying to add in lies too.

Apologies Shroder if it's just a coincidence but I'm the suspicious type. You appeared out of the blue at the same time Tom was spouting rubbish. You have plenty of investing experience so it seemed rather naïve of you to think that it was an Iofina short chart.

Then with no real previous interest you took the time to post the actual chart and dismiss the truth.

[sandbag] 14/1/2015 23:15

Cyber,Unfortunately PEG isn't all that makes a ZULU.IOF misses out on a few points. That doesn't however make IOF a poor investment. It just isn't a ZULU. Interestingly Mark Slater (amongst other icons) has bought into Castleton (CTP) which also isn't a ZULU. If Mr Big knows him and/or Nigel Wray it would be helpful if he could tip them the wink re IOF ;-)

[superg1] 14/1/2015 22:36

Cyber

The talk in recent weeks was that someone had been lined up to take on the BR overhang.

Any 2 mill SB rollover trade hasn't featured before, so highly unlikely it was an SB taken out recently.

I was going to mention Byot as I track that one but they really mess about with the spread on that one.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 22:22

I say it for more than just that.

It was thought Friday was the date they were out but it spilled over into this week.

Volumes settling down and share price moves will soon tell us.

[cyberbub] 14/1/2015 22:10

Not sure superg1, 2 X 2M sale looks more like a roll-over to me... although to be fair the spread is rather large on a rollover of that size...

[cyberbub] 14/1/2015 22:07

I have been having a bit of a think about Zulu and PEGs. Obviously we are coming out of a difficult/non-comparable semi-startup year in 2014, but looking forward to 2015, does anyone have any thoughts as to a range of PEG values the company might be on?

My own view is that the new target (hopefully under-promised) iodine output for H1 2015, if replicated in H2 (ie. with no new plants), would put us on a p/e of no more than 6-7 at the current share price

Assuming some growth in plant numbers, and an increase in iodine sale prices, could we hope for a consistent 20% growth rate going forward for the next few years?

That would put us on a PEG well below 0.5, which classic Zulu Principle would say was very cheap.

NAI

[bogg1e] 14/1/2015 21:10

SG, is TW still waging his personal war against IOF? I thought once Lance had cleared up all the misunderstandings that TW and pals had closed their shorts, or possibly messed them.

[superg1] 14/1/2015 21:07

No doubt TW has 'uncovered' that no plants exist and in fact no iodine has ever been produced. What we see at AGMs and presentations are just sophisticated Holgrams.

Next he'll be suggesting IOF need to spend money building SWDs, I mean how stupid could someone be, oh hang on......, he has already said that.

[hurricane.] 14/1/2015 20:41

Thanks for the link. Nice for the AIM market to have a real business on their exchange. Not many Iofina type companies about lol