Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[odvod] 20/1/2015 11:49

PS one aspect that I did not found - trade agreements and market protections could have consequences (Chile, US, Japan, rest of the world) + currency competitevnes - is USD based producer OK (makes it expensive in a price war - likely to have difficulties)?

[odvod] 20/1/2015 11:44

I looked at the iodine use. Very much needed. Heavy life element.
Water handling - it can be only a good thing.
Small producing market makes it "easy"???? to follow.
Fracking development has no effect as only a few wells needed for production.
Patent protected.
News flow coming - and that is why I look at the chart and vol because it might give a clue.
Prudent new management talking about good 2015 prospects.
Multi bagging potential.
As there was so much written I have nothing to add but I look at what collective does daily - chart tells me.
etc

[brucie5] 20/1/2015 11:39

'So that makes some current shares look very cheap indeed.'


superg1, mind sharing your thoughts on which others fit this category?
Always happy to learn from a master..

[superg1] 20/1/2015 11:28

Od

It is no longer chart driven but news driven imo as can be seen by the associated volumes and lack of chart traders.

We have some events like the 19th for a hearing and I expect a good outcome, so if I was someone sat looking to buy, being selfish would want a drift lower to enhance the outcome of a positive result.

In that mode the things that would scupper the idea would be:

News of a JV or similar on water.

The strategic plan which from comments released by IOF indicates Iodine production growth this year.

JV on iodine or someone taking a major stake. If you look at the oil sector commentary suggests at such times are when M and A action takes off.

Fund interest once more as they look for growth shares.

Aspects in Chile. I read a court report yesterday re the current circs of RB energy. I note the monitor had some concerns re the interim cash situation while they are under court protection

I did some calcs on iodine production and potential on lowish bpd and ppm, and it seems to me the frack disruption has been high. That leaves a big jump in production should the fracking drop off.

Then add in one or two higher ppm sites and the average production yield per unit rises significantly, due to the G and G numpty decisions.

So for me personally a lot to be excited about. It seems that way for Tom too due to his comments.

I understand it, most of the market doesn't, and that's fine by me.

There are a growing number of little shares that are making progress but away from the market spotlight. The market works on market situations not individual business, and presents some great opportunities for those that are prepared to put the work in.

In fact ADVFN have something decent going on for once imo in a seminar

• The state of mind necessary to find real bargains

• Being an analyser of business, not markets

• A coherent framework for searching out sound, but neglected and therefore cheap, shares

The great thing is only a very small minority have the patience and drive to find them. A great idea is one thing, a great idea that is finally gaining traction is another. It's not necessarily about new ideas but old ideas that are starting to produce results but the market has taken their eye off them.

Hype shares a year or two back kept climbing due to the positive sentiment. Some have made good progress but are way below their price back then.

Hype shares now run out of steam very quickly due to the fear and sentiment.

So imo for now the shares gaining actual traction re sales cash flows and moving into profit, are the ones that will start to grab attention, due to actual growth, and reduced risk.

So that makes some current shares look very cheap indeed.

[odvod] 20/1/2015 09:52

No comment but "The graph indicates nothing other than what the share price has been in the past"


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[superg1] 19/1/2015 20:51

Some basics from Continental resources who have recently given an update. The hold a large acreage position in the Bakken and the new oil interest in southern Oklahoma known as SCOOP

Revised 2015 CAPEX and production guidance
•$2.7 billion (reduced 41%)
•16 - 20% yoy production growth

Two (2) world-call platforms for growth
•SCOOP: 471,000 net acres
•Bakken: 1.2 million net acres

Repeatable, low risk inventory in SCOOP
•3.6 billion boe net unrisked potential
•4,750 unrisked potential locations

I did ask a while back the SCOOP has some good ppms

Slickwater

•slickwater: 10 middle Bakken and 3 TF1 wells; will yield 46% uplift

•hybrid: 7 middle Bakken and 10 TF1 wells; about $500K less cost than slickwater; 29% uplift

[joestalin] 19/1/2015 14:52

The graph indicates nothing other than what the share price has been in the past. I would have thought that the next significant change in share price is largely dependent on the inner workings of Mr Carlisle's mind. I think the very last reliable indicator of that would be a chart, however authoritatively presented it might be.

[odvod] 19/1/2015 14:45

US closed today. After 4 up days there must be a pause with a down day + todays morning action looked like a fishing for some cheap shares. No selling pressure or panic.

[jbe81] 19/1/2015 14:44

Will be very surprised if there is not some buying in anticipation of a permit, think it is jus a bit of profit taking today.

[meb123] 19/1/2015 14:42

I hope the graph above does signal the start of an uptrend . However since we are unlikley to get any significant news beween now and the hearing date next month, does anyone get the feeling that the share price will drift , possibly down to 30p again ? If it does, it will not be a suprise to me, I have to say !

[odvod] 19/1/2015 10:14

looking good imho


free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[testuser123] 19/1/2015 09:14

Hurricane - highly unlikely. The currency pair in question for that trade was CHFEUR, so shorting the swiss franc would implicitly mean going long on the euro. Given Aaron's well publicised views on Europe it wouldn't really fit his MO.

[jbe81] 19/1/2015 08:52

Good opportunity to pick up cheap shares when the mms want to drop it on no volume!

[superg1] 19/1/2015 08:37

I keep following it. One report says 90% plus of clients were short. There was a surge in short positions in the run up to the chaos, so the vast majority that play that sector will have been caught out.

[joeblogg2] 19/1/2015 08:25

At least have a few buyers now.

[joeblogg2] 19/1/2015 08:21

thks super. Lets hope not too many IOF holders were short SF.

[superg1] 19/1/2015 08:17

No idea Joe

As reported over the weekend the swiss franc event will have a few positions. Mainly shorts I suspect but there will be some longs too closing across various shares (I note QPP and QFI were both up)

Other than that perhaps someone decided to sell.

Testcard_F.jpg ‎

[joeblogg2] 19/1/2015 08:13

whats with all the sells ?

[superg1] 18/1/2015 18:04

Chile iodine prices and the exchange rate.

In 2010 the average price was around $32 per kg, prices that can now be seen for India imports.

In 2010 the Chile minimum wage was 172k pesos per month by next January it will be 250k pesos per month.

Back in 2010 and at various points through to 2013 the peso had period of around the 475 mark to the dollar, the lowest being 260.

2010 172,000/475 = US $362

current minimum wage 225K and 625 exchange rate = US $360

next January 250k and 625 rate = US $400

The Peso is near record weakness for the last 10 years.

On the 475 rate the minimum wage increases would have meant $526 per month v the $362 in 2010.

Like for like on the exchange rate then it would have been a 45% wage increase by the time we hit next January.

As it currently stands then it's costing them the same now as it did back in 2010 for wages even with wage rises.

So for Chile it's more or less as good as it's going to get on fixed costs such as wages, due to the exchange rate swing

The same can be said for the yen.

Going on the historic charts there is little room for significant further weakness.

Other costs have risen so they are not getting the same margins they got in 2010.

It will be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next year.

[hurricane.] 18/1/2015 13:26

I wonder if mister big got burned on the Swiss franc ?

[elbillo] 18/1/2015 13:24

My heart bleeds for them.

[superg1] 18/1/2015 13:18

Ouch

$830 mill hedge find wiped out as they were short on the Swiss Franc.

It had seen a big surge in short positions so it's pretty much nailed on that some big obnoxious bears got a nasty shock last week.

With such a dead cert situation due to the cap it had large multiples available via gearing.

With the cap you knew exactly how much you could lose so could gear with great confidence, some well in over their heads.

For those that don't understand, for the big companies gearing to 20 times your deposit is available.

EG a £100k bet short per point in the franc is the equivalent of £2 million due to the gearing, so £100,000 profit per 1 point move if it goes your way. As the franc was capped they knew the maximum they could lose. If you were covered fully to the max cap rate, then you couldn't be a forced seller.

The cap was lifted and boom, the shorts were annihilated. A 20 point move would mean the £100k guy just lost £2 million. £2 million which he probably hasn't got. They then can't add to cover the margin call so then comes all the forced closures of the short positions.

IG it seems closed all client swiss franc short positions taking a potential £30 mill loss, depending on what they can recover from clients.

I would imagine those that have been closed out were short in other stocks, as it seems folks of that ilk tend to favour short positions.

[superg1] 17/1/2015 21:15

Just found some news on the topic that explains it. This is a translation too.

Thursday January 15, as provided by law, the list of rights of use of water affects the payment of patents for non-use was published in the Official Journal.
There is a total of 5,183 rights, both consumptive (ie water used and not returned, such as mining, agriculture, industry) and non-consumptive (the water used and then returns to the runway, as the case hydropower, aquaculture, tourism), which together represent a total of 1,032 UTM (over 44 thousand 500 million pesos) and penalizing the ineffective use of resources.
"The legislation stems from the change made in 2005 to 1981 Water Code (Law 20,017), which established the annual payment of a patent for the non-use of water resources to discourage practices such as speculation and hoarding of water. Basically we want the water is available for those who really have projects, "said the Minister of Public Works, Alberto Undurraga.
This patent is determined based on the existence of works related to water use, punishing those holders of water use rights that have not built the necessary works to capture and / or restitution (in the case of rights non-consumptive use) both surface and groundwater.
To improve this process, some aspects have been included in the amendments to the Water Code currently before Parliament. "First seek to be exempt from paying this patent to rural drinking water systems (APR). But some paperwork and, most importantly, that the figure of the second shot is removed for non-payment of the patent, allowing the water to return to the Administration if the first auction bidders will not submit to be simplified, "says the Director General Water, Carlos Estévez Valencia.
Regarding indigenous communities, an exemption is also proposed in the Act, the Director General adds "but is pending for indigenous consultation. Consequently, the decision establishing patents allows these communities ask to be removed from the list, "he says.
TREASURY GENERAL OF THE REPUBLIC
Payment of patents involves fundraising for the Treasury, which are divided between the National Regional Development Fund (FNDR) of the respective regional government (65%); municipalities in proportion to the surface of the communes where appropriate the land registry of registry shall respective inscriptions (10%), and prosecutors central government funds (25%). Of total patent subject to the payment rights are non-consumptive rights which concentrated patents higher flow rates.
Individuals or communities who hold such qualities as defined in the Indian Act, and whose rights to use water resources were acquired Fund of CONADI Indigenous Lands and Waters, may request to be removed from the list by presentation of the respective motion for reconsideration duly founded.
Holders named in the publication, may appeal to the DGA by filing a motion for reconsideration until February 26 if they consider that the published data are incorrect, allowing a process to review the case and, if proven wrong or difference by finding field of headworks that enable the effective extraction of water to which they are entitled, they may waive such payment.
This tribute must be paid to the General Treasury of the Republic, an institution in charge of your collection, during the month of March each year, as set out in Article 129 bis 7 of the current Water Code. Non-payment of the patent could cause the closing of law.

[superg1] 17/1/2015 21:06

Re that link using google translate the bold type and the start translates to this

'fixed list of rights to harvest water affects the payment of patent attorney not beneficial use of process water'

So the list of rights in the document seems to require some sort of payment, but seems to infer non use. It's for 2015 issued by the new Chile directorate of water

Hopefully someone out there speaks Spanish and can give a better translation.

[superg1] 17/1/2015 20:56

Oh by the way ADVFN have spotted their mistake re the links but now changing tt to TT works again. :-)