Iofina Share Discussion Threads

[superg1] 21/1/2015 09:34

Woody

Round is right. Noli had comms with the company long ago on that. It was said additional shifts and production lines could cope with about 800mt.

IOF also purchased land around the current site some time back should they need to expand further.

'Iofina purchased the freehold of its iodine derivatives manufacturing facilities and administration offices in Covington, Kentucky, USA. Iofina also purchased thirteen acres adjacent to the site to have the potential to expand Iofina’s specialty chemicals business further. These purchases bring the total complex to eighteen acres.'

Going back to that time here is a paragraph which helps explain why they have done so well and seem to have customers queuing up. Based on what they said, I doubt customers have out them under too much pressure on prices.

During 2011, Iofina had record sales and successfully entered into new markets with our strong product offering. Iofina made a strategic decision to honour our quoted prices to these new markets while iodine prices were changing rapidly. This practice hurt our profitability in the second half of 2011 but has been important in 2012 with repeat orders, customer loyalty and our reputation with our clients as we rollout new products in 2012. Iofina has targeted a rollout of several new products in 2012 for the iodine industry.

[woodpeckers] 21/1/2015 08:57

Thanks roundup.

[roundup] 21/1/2015 08:55

Wood. In order to expand production all we need to do is put on an additional shift.

[woodpeckers] 21/1/2015 08:47

Presuming the dragonfly brings us our permit and a jv follows, would IOF be planning to use some of the cash to expand the chemical side as it seems to be growing so rapidly or are the facilities we already have large enough to cope with foreseeable expansion?

[joestalin] 21/1/2015 08:36

A quick look at today's horoscope for Aquarius, the water bringer:

You may be excited to share your ideas about your plans. However, watch today for talking about something prematurely. Conversations and interactions can be tricky. Now and until February 11th, you may feel the need to keep some things to yourself. Someone who has been gone or distant can reappear, and yet remain emotionally distant. It is more likely to be a communication problem rather than a permanent issue of feelings.

It all becomes clear now....

[superg1] 21/1/2015 08:29

Joe

Joe, Dragonflies tend to be the insect king where water is involved. So it means we are going to get the permit.

The inclusion of the word Dragon is no accident, and 'tern' of pattern is the species the wildlife lot were worried about. After the dragon it's going to fly.

It all seems simple to read to me. :-)

[joestalin] 21/1/2015 07:51

a 'Bullish Dragonfly Doji Pattern'

That's a new one! It probably means exactly the same as the rest of these so called patterns, though. (which is that we have a 50% chance of calling it right.)

[superg1] 20/1/2015 23:11

Ask Zac Mir.

If he says it's going up, sell. If he say it's going down, buy.

Going on historic advice by him for IOF, if you followed the above then you would have had an 80% success rate.

[7cats] 20/1/2015 23:01

No, I just thought someone could confirm it, I read it as good news for the long term holders like myself.

[freshvoice] 20/1/2015 22:34

Could be one of ACT's mates?

[7cats] 20/1/2015 22:32

Does anyone have a view of the candlestick pattern that formed today? British Bulls said it's a 'Bullish Dragonfly Doji Pattern' suggesting a trend reversal!

[superg1] 20/1/2015 21:19

Silly mistake.

I looked on iii tonight to find a poster called tentative predator claiming to know it inside out and trashing other posts.

It just shows how folks haven't a clue re the market and company.

EG

'This year has seen record output of Iodine'

I think he means 2014, it is of course completely incorrect as mentioned in earlier posts. He's obviously missed the 2700mt production drop by SQM and RB v 2013.

'the last attempt to get a JV for the water failed (2012).'

It didn't fail, it was on offer and IOF turned them down

This is a gem

'This year has seen record output of Iodine despite the firm downtrend in prices; the market prediction is for this to be maintained or increased next year; prices are being driven down consistently; no large producers have gone out of business; the small producers that have been driven out of business are actually driving down the overall cost of production as low cost producing mines are being sold on by administrators at discount prices to pay off creditors while the high cost ones are being shutdown at no real cost.'

Some out of business, mines being sold off. Is he/she on about iodine or some other sector? iodine production increase this year next ?????

'The cost of IODINE production it makes is $23 so that'll get snapped up when the court finally winds them up (RB), whereas the lithium will get dumped. So there will be the same amount of Iodine coming in to the market, only at a nice low cost for whoever buys the operations.'.

NO, RB have been playing games with their figures. ALP figures 35, 38 then 41 per kg.

Then when they wanted a loan they said $22 per kg, when they actually produced more than anticipated they said $24 (higher yields but higher costs ???) About $26 is the latest which is sending it into their website forecast of $27 to $35.

In theory their costs should have been dropping as the peso has been weakening.

" Iodine suppliers as a whole are still generating more than the market needs, and there's no immediate prospect of any cutbacks from larger suppliers"

eh!

Whoever the poster is they must surely be a professional analyst to make that many mistakes.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 20/1/2015 15:36

"Halifax offer £3.50 share dealing charge today"

I snot more than that reading (pg dn) every Graham post.

[superg1] 20/1/2015 15:16

Sirocco/RB.

They peaked at around 1400 mt production in 2013 having planned to go through 2000mt this year.

However, as forecast on this thread in great detail they abandoned their AL Plant as it's too expensive and was failing. They had planned to put a mill in to help it and go beyond 2000mt, but it was never going to happen and didn't.

That means they are on 1200 to 1300 mt per year now using the heap leach method.

Based on another lie in 2013 they stopped supplying the market in H2 of that year. Inventory in existence and H2 production left them with 800mt of inventory when they started selling again in H1 2014, giving them a 2000mt supply ability.

The company has fallen into a mass of debt as detailed and are under court protection currently with a high chance they will close.


Cosayach

2011 6000mt plus, but 33 wells closed in a water theft case. Production fell to under 2000mt, which is why SQM filled the gap in the following chaos. The Japan earthquake helped too.

April 2013 Cosayach think "sod this" and went water theft mad again adding a rumoured 2000mt. May 14 and they were caught, the court ordered 38 wells to be closed (supervised). So Cosayach should have gone under 2000mt once more but would have an inventory.

Cosayach then lost a $70 mill case, followed by a $120 mill case, then on the very recent IRS tax case and $82 mill owed plus fines up to 4 times that. The $70m and $120m are court orders, and I doubt the Cosayach group have paid a penny yet. The IRS case has just surfaced so is in play over this year.

So Cosayach and RB more or less created a false 2800mt supply at the same time SQM stopped 2,500 of production.

Adding the others together on estimates then there will be 1000 to 2000 less production v Chile's normal supply rate. In the past that problem hasn't appeared due to the high inventory levels, Iodine growth is about 1000mt per year.

Just RB stopping which seems likely and it's a 3000 to 4000mt problem with no one that can help. The inventories are not there and neither is the production capacity. That assumes a current 3000mt from Algorta which I doubt they are doing

If Cosayach fold it just gets worse, it would take a few years, However the whole plan it seems by SQM is to take out Cosayach as they want their planned seawater pipeline, and lithium leases.

So imo as it stands, it's just a matter of time before the iodine price starts to climb.

If the end users did their homework on the figures then they would be buying up loose iodine stock now. However typically they don't twitch until the price is suddenly on the rise, then they realise why, go buying mad, and compound any potential shortage. This time there is no 5,400 SQM inventory to go running to.

I listed the Chile water rights list and pending charges. That is just the start of the water law shake up.

If the water rights of SQM are suspended due to drought which is a an option recently introduced then the iodine market will see a market far worse than 2011.

There are a host of other potential events that could see the price fly and nothing apparent that can fix it.

[daz1966] 20/1/2015 15:15

Halifax offer £3.50 share dealing charge today

[monts12] 20/1/2015 15:10

neither is 136 or 437

what's your point?

[odvod] 20/1/2015 14:49

100 shares traded
500 shares traded

not much for a single trade considering costs

[superg1] 20/1/2015 14:24

Pheonix

As in the header.

In 2010 and 2011 (iodine chaos year) SQM sold 5,300mt more iodine than they produced.

In 2012 it looks like the inventory ran dry as they sold 100 mt more than they produced.

So their average sales for 2010 through 2012 was 11,700mt and their average production 9,900 mt.

2010 they stooped a mine so the production dropped to 8,800. In the iodine chaos they opened up all they could peaking at 10,900 mt production in 2012.
In 2013 it dropped 100mt as right at the end of the year they closed a mine and a plant.

That mine and plant as in the forms 20 F suggest they dropped about 2,500mt of production. They have never told the market officially.

So if they did 10,800 last year it puts them on around 8,300mt for 2014, the lowest for many years.

It looks like they had 5,400mt of inventory pre 2010 which all got wiped out as the problems appeared.

In a recent announcement, they suggested sales were around 28% (8960mt) of a 32000 mt market. So it would seem they have sold more than they produced and their inventory levels are far below what they were a few years back. At levels that are probably the minimum they could risk as it's just a couple of months supply to them.

SQM details

2009 Produced 10,100 t sold 7,200 t (inventory + 2,900mt)
2010 Produced 8,800 t sold 11,900 t (inventory -3100 t)
2011 Produced 10,000 t sold 12,200 t (-2,200 t)
2012 Produced 10,900 t sold 11000 t (-100 t)
2013 Produced 10,800 t sold 9,300 t (+1500 t).

2014 Production estimate (my view). 8300 to 8500mt.

We'll see whether the figures stack up when they release results, but on the info they recorded, if nothing has changed it should be close.

I'll mention RB and Cosayach in another post.

[arlington chetwynd talbot] 20/1/2015 14:07

And to fill the gap we break support. So back to support @25 odvod?

That's what your post mistakenly ticked-up by dimwits is saying?

[odvod] 20/1/2015 12:28

"With an apparent iodine surplus IOF have demands for supplies" meaning that they are competitive?
But only in the US with their end product?

[phoenixs] 20/1/2015 12:18

superg,

what would you think maybe the shortfall of output this calendar in relation to demand? I know that stocks have been sold, but going forward the output/demand figures are what will become very important this year.

[superg1] 20/1/2015 12:06

Od

The US imports about 5000mt of iodine.


With an apparent iodine surplus IOF have demands for supplies. Now they have their own iodine sales are rising rapidly as demonstrated.

It's also said (last presentations) that IOF has a large order on a low margin product but currently don't have the iodine production to meet it.

So there is a backlog of demand for them and for the US end users won't have the extra shipping costs and import duty.

If the carbon tax game ever kicks in then IOF methods are near zero emissions.

[joestalin] 20/1/2015 11:58

Are there no afficionados of the I-Ching who could present their findings with an appropriate degree of faux gravitas?

[che7win] 20/1/2015 11:52

odvod,
keep posting the charts - I was positive before your chart posts because I too suspect an uptrend developing.

The news is bubbling underneath to drive the chart upwards, it's playing out as suspected so far.