International Distributi... Share Discussion Threads

[tuftymatt] 23/11/2023 15:38

That's so good to see and can hopefully help draw a line under 240 which it has bounced off a few times in recent months.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[isis] 23/11/2023 11:48

Blimey he's getting near his bid limit!!

[cwa1] 23/11/2023 11:39

Kretinsky still adding:-

[not my real name] 20/11/2023 23:09

Liberum have had a downer on IDS for a long time. I have never read anything positive in any of their reports and while Royal Mail have many undisputable problems, there are many positives which Liberum continually choose to ignore.

You don't have to take my word for it though, here's what the Financial Times has to say.

"The 12 analysts offering 12 month price targets for International Distributions Services PLC have a median target of 277.50, with a high estimate of 369.00 and a low estimate of 160.00. The median estimate represents a 14.67% increase from the last price of 242.00"
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Of these 12 analysts only one has a sell rating and one has underperform. The remaining 10 are split as follows:

Hold - 7, Outperform - 3, Buy - 2.

The reason for the 12/14 difference is that only 12 offer 1 year price targets and the other 2 take differing, longer term views but I cannot differentiate between the figures to establish which 2.

Hope this makes sense and puts the Liberum negativity in perspective. (They might turn out to be right, but they are very much a minority view)

As always, DYOR,

NMRN

[tuftymatt] 20/11/2023 09:05

I agree NMRN.

DK took his position in RMG / IDS based on figures of £4 for GLS and UK property etc so even if a forced break up happens, it won't now though in my opinion, you would clear 320 easily I think.

This is one of my growth stocks for the next year or so and one I will add at again should it drop to circa 230.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[tuftymatt] 17/11/2023 11:09

I think the value of GLS alone is worth well more than the current share price.

Good luck all 👍🏻

[geckotheglorious] 17/11/2023 10:06

Comment from liberum in case anyone interested. Via Citywire.

Liberum raises alarm over Royal Mail restructure
Liberum is concerned about the impact a planned restructuring of International Distributions Services (IDS), the parent company of Royal Mail, will have.

Analyst Gerald Khoo retained his ‘sell’ recommendation and target price of 180p on the Citywire Elite Companies A-rated stock, which was trading at 237p on Thursday.

The failure of the postal delivery division to grow revenues by more than 1% a year since it was privatised in 2013 has prompted a restructuring plan that many predict could see Royal Mail sold off.

‘We consider the execution risk on Royal Mail’s restructuring to be high,’ Khoo said. ‘We see challenges both in management’s plans being implemented fully at the local level and in successfully implemented actions yielding the desired results.’

He added that the agreement made between Royal Mail senior management and the CWU ‘is a necessary precondition for the turnaround of the business, but this is far from sufficient’.

The risks, Khoo believes, are ‘not fully reflected in the valuation’. The stock trades on a March 2024 enterprise value/Ebitda of 6.7 times and Khoo said ‘the rating does not adequately reflect the substantial structural risks faced by the group’.

[blackhorse23] 16/11/2023 07:32

SP will be hammered today

[blackhorse23] 16/11/2023 07:32

Bad results . Money moving to APH

[not my real name] 13/11/2023 15:45

Glass half full Matt, always glass half full! :-)

NMRN

[tuftymatt] 13/11/2023 11:22

Morning NRMN,

LOL and I guess that is one way of looking at it 👍🏻

[not my real name] 13/11/2023 11:05

Morning tuftymatt,

I thought todays fine was a cracking result. They save at least 20 times the value of the fine by not delivering the post on time!

NMRN

[tuftymatt] 13/11/2023 08:21

As we move into peak season for parcel volume I had hoped for a bit of a lift in the share price. Looking at last years chart I see it came in December but not by much.

Hopefully peak goes well for IDS and we see this one start a push closer to 300 than 200 🤞🏻

Edit, I think todays fine news didn't help much either!!

Good luck all 👍🏻

[encarter] 08/11/2023 12:30

RM still offer the best service imho. I don't recall who (probably EVRI) but they left a parcel in the green bin when it was out on the street for collection on green bin day. Parcels come on time via RM but like others on here, letters come together about once a week.

[encarter] 08/11/2023 12:25

Thanks MNRN

[blackhorse23] 07/11/2023 22:30

Switching to WJG & CURY

[lefrene] 07/11/2023 20:46

Notmy, Thanks, I've done the trunking from a handful of specialist mailing companies that provide these bulk mailing services. 49 fully loaded 'yorks' go in the back of a single deck trailer. (I showed them how to get 50 in, but not interested, although they used to put 45 in until I showed them how to do 50!)

The break down is usually into 7.5 tonners that take 15 yorks, beofre then going into smaller distribution offices where it either goes into 'walks' or into small vans. But it involves a lot more people and vehicles for about 40% of the stamp, whilst the trunker gets circa 60% of the stamp for the simple cheap end of the job.

What actually happens is that the contractor subs out the actual job to a local haulier for perhaps nowadays £4 a mile, say £2,400 for a 600 mile roundtrip, while the lead contract holder pockets 250k x 40p? less the £2,400 paid to the people who actually do the work! That huge amount should be going to RM and not the likes of DHL. One wonders how this country survives given the dreadful waste and ball chain of our leaders.

[not my real name] 07/11/2023 17:54

lefrene,

"It's the last mile using 50 men and vans that costs lots, and not the just carrying 250k letters two or three hundred miles down a motorway with one man and one truck."
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Average walk for a postie is 600 houses. Your one artic would need circa 400 vans to deliver. Just shows the scale of the massive injustice in the price of stamp split!

NMRN

[not my real name] 07/11/2023 17:49

encarter,

I note a trading update October last year. Are we due one then?
---------------------------------------------------------------

Interim results being posted 16 Nov. Will show improvement but only market will decide if it's enough improvement. I don't mind either way, patience will definitely pay off with these shares. Still working with 2-3 year timeline to at least double my investment.

All IMHO,

NMRN

[lefrene] 07/11/2023 11:27

I couldn't agree more Isis, the 6 days a week everywhere is unwarranted, hugely costly, and on a 'green' basis creates needless CO2. The other thing that needs fixing is the grossly unfair system where Royal Mail has to carry the 'last mile' for other postal carriers who are getting the lions share of the stamp, for doing the much cheaper trunking. It's the last mile using 50 men and vans that costs lots, and not the just carrying 250k letters two or three hundred miles down a motorway with one man and one truck.

(250k is a typical artic single deck load from a water company or electric billing company operation)