International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[pratt2] 24/3/2020 14:49

Wonder why this isn't moving as much as some of the other airline stocks out there today. easyJet, Ryanair , Dart Group, all flying, esp Dart.Hopefully this will come good too in the medium term! Gla

[linton5] 24/3/2020 13:36

Buffett must still be buying them lol up 15%

[careful] 24/3/2020 13:32

This exponential compounding model worst case scenarios has everyone panicked.

Obviously if fatalities double every two weeks we get to astronomical numbers within 12 weeks.
It causes the authorities to take drastic measures to avoid political ruination should things go wrong.

So a pizza delivery boy makes £10 in his first week, £20 in the second week, £40 in the third week and £80 in the forth.
He has doubled his earnings every week for weeks, quite easy when the numbers are small.

He asked if he carries on at that rate what will he be earning in 14 weeks time?

Answer. £1.3m per week.
WOW.

[amaretto1] 24/3/2020 13:18

One of my reasons for going long now... Warren Buffet buying in to delta Airways the last few days... So imo he thinks we are near the bottom for airline shares. Wrong or right ... time will tell.

[dround87] 24/3/2020 13:13

At least your sure of something.

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 13:05

Am sure my posts are appreciated as.much as yours

[dround87] 24/3/2020 13:01

You make your money and I'll make mine ham. But what is it you're actually trying to do here? I don't dispute your right to be here even if you aren't invested either way but what are you trying to achieve with your constant drivel?

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 12:51

Anyway, obviously you will make a load and I'll make nothing in your world, so let's move on. And I don't really see how those definition prove me wrong???

[dround87] 24/3/2020 12:48

Your definitions if you bother to read them ham are really talking about individual securities. Not markets, corrections and recessions. Had you bought in January 08 BEFORE the reccesion you would be profitable today. Buying corrections and recessions, even depressions is the conventional wisdom and best practice.

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 12:45

Like I said earlier, there are other shares out there which have dropped without a wipe out of their revenue and in fair state, so those are where I would be investing first, waiting until the fog clears here still give plenty of chance to get in at a low level.

[amaretto1] 24/3/2020 12:44

I've just gone long .... up/down risk Heavenly to long ! Imo

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 12:39

Ok, you re-write the online definitions to match your version.

[dround87] 24/3/2020 12:37

If it were acting independently of the market and sector then yes. But it isn't. Like I've told you I'm 100 percent certain of eventual recovery from this event from a FTSE100 perspective and moderately confident iag can pull through without a bailout so drip feeding is an idiot proof strategy that will pay off. Leave it to the know-it-alls to try and inevitably fail to guess the bottom. I bet we end up on a similar average albeit with a significant difference in effort and worry. That's assuming you have the guts to part with money. My guess is the super cautious out there will invest halfway up a rebound, get hit by an aftershock, sell everything at a loss and then miss the recovery entirely while they hide under their blankets expecting another big drop. Fire and forget. Easy money.

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 12:22

A falling knife is when a share price is heading south with no sign of stopping at the point which you invest in my books. Before it bottoms out. And repeat investing on the way down.

[dround87] 24/3/2020 12:18

Catching a falling knife means something different ham. When you catch a falling knife you're betting that a badly managed or failing company will turn itself around. Investing in intu would be an example of catching a falling knife. Buying corrections/recessions is good practice.

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 11:40

Trump is toast in the November elections. There is no real incentive for the democrats to agree to go over the top to pump the market, that's what Trump wants, if they do then they help his re-election chances.
But the democrats can't be seen to not be helping tackle the virus.

[sr2day] 24/3/2020 11:36

careful,don,t be careless, you do not know what you are talking about.this virus has the potential to kill hundred of thousands.we have to eradicate it ,everything has to stop except for essential services.this is going to test the patience of many.in this moment Trump is not a role model that we should follow.

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 11:19

With a lot of companies withdrawing guidance. That means for me that when quarterly updates out then they could shock, markets like to know what is coming, even if it's bad, and they like the result to match the guidance, the latter of which may be lacking.

[nw99] 24/3/2020 11:06

Agreed just guessing unless a long term investor

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 10:43

Until there is clarity about gov loans or shares taken, the skies open again and consumer confidence returns, it's hard to tell where this is going.
Although there are other shares which have been dragged down but still are having good revenues during this period I guess. But then these are lower due to the risk/reward.

[pratt2] 24/3/2020 09:14

Italy is past inflection point, declines day on day in new cases . UK is 2 weeks behind Italy but hopefully won't be as bad with the lockdown now. If all things go well, we should hopefully be back up and running in a few months. IAG didn't even want a govt bailout, so plenty of reserved to outlast this . Big director buys 3 weeks ago here. I think this is a conviction long term buy

[careful] 24/3/2020 08:39

I think this lockdown will be abandoned within a fortnight or so.
Irrespective of numbers.

The world has gone crazy, financial self destruct because of a flu type epidemic.
And that is all it is, lets us cut out the bullsh*t.


In future the health service will have the equipment to cope with this sort of thing at its peak.
And the public will have to act sensibly and get on with their work.

Never again will this shutdown happen. again
A stupid hype that went viral.

[smithys2019] 24/3/2020 07:26

Ham ham you are completely right on this occasion, for one reason. The black swan event that turned out has been one of the worst of our lives. If the situation had been resolved and the outbreak hadn’t taken hold, the recovery would have been very quick and you would have missed your opportunity. As it turns out now, you will have the buying opportunity of the century, so well done. A lot of value across industry, VW, RR, Airbus, siemens, alphabet and IAG will rise from the ashes and wouldn’t be surprised to see 300%+ gains in the next few years due to the vast stimulus, the likes of which haven’t been seen since the40’s, are pumped in to the global economy.

I think the likelihood was that we would have recovered as per bird flu, SARS etc. I got the call wrong. Other point, this has still only killed around 30k globally. Last year 650,000 died of flu. It seems hysteria has taken over. That was almost impossible to predict

[hamhamham1] 24/3/2020 05:36

I am not against investing but trying to catch a falling knife is a different thing altogether. Look at the charts decline angle when you were saying buy now, at various points during a very steep decline. Fair enough if you personally want to buy during that steep drop but saying it's a buying opportunity for others here at say 400p is wrong IMO. You can't just look at your last buy post, look at the ones a month or two ago which may have got investors involved.
I guess it's just different ways of investing, you invest on the way down, I will invest when it flattens out. Who's average price is lower, time will tell.