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[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 17:25

For those that have been toting huge rises for their stock based on big jumps in Sterling following a Conservative win in the general election, you may be in for a considerable disappointment according to Bloomberg today. I've included in the extract below the best scenario - i.e. that for a Conservative Majority. See the full article for the others, but even the scenario for another hung Parliament is illustrated thus: "Cable quickly falls to the 1.22-1.28 range seen before the withdrawal pact was agreed with the EU. Options suggest cable around 1.25" Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-10/u-k-vote-is-one-pit-stop-in-long-brexit-road-for-pound-gilts U.K. Election Is One Pit Stop in Long Brexit Road for Pound, Markets By Heather Burke, Laura Cooper, Richard Jones, Ven Ram, and Eddie van der Walt December 10, 2019, 7:38 AM GMT * Pound may struggle to rise above $1.32 even on Tory win * Trade deal risks in 2020 may boost rate-cut odds above 50-50 Sterling’s rally will be limited even if U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson wins a parliamentary majority in the general election and finds a way to pass the withdrawal bill by Jan. 31. That’s because the clock is ticking on a trade agreement in a transition period that runs out at the end of 2020. Any longer-term economic and Brexit uncertainty can increase the chance of a Bank of England rate cut next year, which would weigh on the currency and prop up gilts. Markets Live strategists and writers explore some of the many potential outcomes of the Dec. 12 vote, and how they would play out for U.K. assets: Scenario 1: Conservative Majority Result: Boris Johnson’s Conservatives get more than 325 seats in Parliament Under this base case, cable struggles for further upside beyond 1.32 and EUR/GBP has a tough time making headway down toward the 0.83 handle. Gilts initially sell off, with 10-year fair value about 0.9% Short-term sterling gains to sustain declines in the export-heavy FTSE 100, but its trajectory is also determined by U.S.-China trade talks and commodities. Smaller, domestic U.K. companies may be some of the biggest beneficiaries But this initial reaction is buffeted by the threat of a no-deal exit amid concerns over reaching a trade agreement next year, especially if the government takes a hard-nosed approach Pound options are pricing 1.2815 downside risk, with a 68% certainty factor; this is also likely if the Tories win a wafer-thin majority. Further repricing of Brexit risks would send cable back to the 1.24-1.28 range that prevailed in 2Q/3Q 2019 Front-end rates will likely keep pricing of 50% odds of a 2020 rate cut. With a cliff-edge Brexit not out of the question and weak economic conditions, the Bank of England stays cautious

[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 16:47

Another fantasy filter? Anyhow, you're completely wrong. According to O’Leary these taxes will come from the airline's bottom line. He said. “Taxation will defeat that purpose. It takes the money away we need to invest in new aircraft.”

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 16:45

Just passed on to passengers, I don't care what the tax is, still fly business with BA.

[fjgooner] 10/12/2019 16:35

@wilc42 The reason for airlines dipping is that the EU plans to impose a region-wide kerosene tax on air travel. More info for you: Https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-12-10/airlines-hit-out-at-jet-fuel-tax-burden-from-europe-s-green-deal?srnd=premium-Europe Airlines Hit Out at Jet-Fuel Tax Burden From Europe’s Green Deal By Lyubov Pronina and Siddharth Vikram Philip December 10, 2019, 3:19 PM GMT Extract Europe’s top airlines attacked EU plans to impose a region-wide kerosene tax as part of a sweeping new environmental strategy, calling the duty unnecessary and unfair and saying investment in sustainable fuels and electric planes would be more effective in reducing carbon emissions. Chiefs of four of the region’s biggest carriers raised their concerns with European Union Transport Commissioner Adina-Ioana Valean in Brussels Tuesday, with Ryanair Holdings Plc’s Michael O’Leary leading criticism of measures set to be unveiled in the so-called Green Deal package this week. Higher duties would do “untold economic damage” and represent a “tax grab” by governments, O’Leary said after the meeting. He spoke in his capacity as chairman of the Airlines for Europe lobby group, which said the session had been broadly positive. The heads of Deutsche Lufthansa AG, British Airways parent IAG SA and EasyJet Plc also met with Valean, who took over this month.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 13:39

They are greedy, but not stupid. They will vote yes.

[bobbybullet] 10/12/2019 12:22

Pilot vote closed 16th. Strong yes to except expected. Not sure it will move the price much though, already expected by the ii's.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 12:09

Glad I filled my boots at 541p got to take a risk. Hopefully a gift from the stock market gods.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 11:16

Oh ok, yesterday was 1m just at 1pm never ever seen that, proves know one knows what to do.

[knowing] 10/12/2019 10:57

Damn Apple must have bought in 😂 Guys PHTM Interims out today. Very encouraging.

[cyberian] 10/12/2019 10:54

monty there was a 1.1 million double wash "O" trade at 548p at the same time of 9.45.02 which has exaggerated the volume...so, really low volume so far today.

[wilc42] 10/12/2019 10:48

Who I ask for advice is nothing to do with you. Are you even employed. Given you are a labour supporter I have my doubts. Please do Filter me. But before you do, please understand that I have you down as a angry small little weasel.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:28

Volume better than yesterday, already over 3m but seems all bears.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:26

40 posts in 4 years wow you really got the hang of this now, lol

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:19

Just fill my boots.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:06

Pilot deal I'm sure will be done. Market worried Corbyn may get in.Diane Abbott chancellor, lol

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 10:04

Oh your 38 post in 4 years, what a muppet.

[debaura1] 10/12/2019 09:58

' Monty. This 2 day dip. Any sniff of a potential no vote from the pilots as to the reason ?' REALLY *laughs out loud* you ask this guy for advice. Oh dear!

[wilc42] 10/12/2019 09:30

Monty. This 2 day dip. Any sniff of a potential no vote from the pilots as to the reason ?

[wilc42] 10/12/2019 09:28

Please. Stop typing.

[debaura1] 10/12/2019 09:27

no trading = no confidence

[wilc42] 10/12/2019 09:27

A win? They will never have the voting power for a win. At best it will be a spoil, a coalition, which JC will not lead, as even the LibDems think he is a danger to this country. His idea of Nationalisation, will be wrapped up in red tape for a long time. Brexit will drag on, money will exist this country and we will be reduced to 1970's UK, labour would love that, because it would allow Diane Abbott the chance to use an abacus to add up

[debaura1] 10/12/2019 09:26

get rid of that lying boris hedge now

[debaura1] 10/12/2019 09:15

Going to be a Labour win now. Good.

[montyhedge] 10/12/2019 08:44

No volume, 250,000 traded, never ever seen it this low. It's the same on other FTSE 100 companies.