International Consolidat... Share Discussion Threads

[snoopy12] 21/3/2020 17:38

In my view sell the landing rights to the government around the world, since they are not being utilised with an option to buy back otherwise the government has the right to auction to the highest bidder from anywhere in the world.

[loganair] 21/3/2020 17:31

While still in the transition period the UK is still considered to be in the EU so can take as bigger stake as it likes in IAG.

In reality, any government can do what ever it likes whether the EU likes it or not.

In the United States they say the big 4 airlines are each burning through $50mln per day, that is $1.5bln per month for each airline.

By the time this is all over, by the end of this year IAG will have burnt through something like £5bln to £10bln.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 17:16

logan....I don't see how that can work.
As I said they would have to issue both EU and NON EU shares. In addition, you seem to be taking no account of the NON EU shares that are already in ownership and issue.

I don't see any attraction in it for WW and the BoD to be honest.

[loganair] 21/3/2020 17:12

This could work, IAG issue 40% new shares to the UK government which is under the 47.5%.

Under EU law governments are not allowed to give state aid to airlines and the French, Dutch and German governments are to their respective airlines.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 16:22

Smithy...that is an old article and refers to NON EU shareholding, which is restricted to 47.5% I believe

Quote "The IAG Board will continue to monitor the Relevant Non-EU Persons ownership level. Under Article 11 of IAG’s bylaws, the Board is authorised to re-impose the Permitted Maximum at any time if necessary."

Logan.....this wouldn't work as IAG would be required to issue both EU and NON EU shares .UK GOV could only purchase NON EU shares , which restricts the amount they can have . In addition, any dilution of NON EU Shares would have an associated impact on the EU Shares ...surely.

I don't see any reason why IAG could not take a loan from Qatar,or anyone else, if offered and needed , on commercial terms.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 16:13

This'll make you laugh, funny guy, but unusual as a right wing comedian :)

[loganair] 21/3/2020 15:48

At the moment EU countries seems to be ignoring EU rules and instead are doing what is best for their own country.

If the government does take a stake in any airline I think they'll do the same as they did with RBS and Lloyds.

For example IAG or Virgin will issue 40% more shares and every one else's stake will go down by 40%.

Then at some point in the future the government will sell their stake, maybe in one go or two or three tranches as a 'Public offering.'

I do not believe Qatar will make a full bid for IAG as usually the Qataris tend to take around a 25% stake in companies and that's it.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 15:48

And toon, the reason why HSBC didn't need to take money from the gov was because of their past banking prudence:
"Michael Geoghegan said the conservative policies followed by his bank in recent years, which were criticised by some shareholders, had provided a solid base to weather the financial storm."

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 15:40

Don’t think 50% is any longer an issue.

hxxps://www.iairgroup.com/en/newsroom/press-releases/newsroom-listing/2019/limit-on-non-eu-shareholding

Certainly with the current rules. IAG could well decide though they don’t want over 50% uk control. Not sure the Spanish will like that.

Could end with BA splitting out from IAG?

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:24

But manageable ....

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 14:22

It certainly is a headache.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:21

I think so.
Which half is being diluted the EU or Non EU shares ?
If they are going to lend the money, they should just do it.
Otherwise, stay out.

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 14:18

Is there no way, say if was diluted by 50%, so double the shares and the gov own half, then AIG just do some kind of share buy back over a period of time, buying back the govs shares and then removing them from circulation? So ending up with the same number of shares on the market as before the trouble?
Am I being naive?

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 14:10

With a stake comes some influence over the the company and its spending and divis, etc I would have thought?
Apd tax free will be needed as well to coax people in the air initially I would imagine.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:03

Ham....if that is the case why take a stake, which damages the business.
Just provide them with an interest free loan, or even APD tax breaks.

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 14:02

It’s an open market Ham. Think dragons den. Whoever accepts the least cut of the pie for the most Moolah gets the cut.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 14:02

VS is 51% owned by Branson and 49% by Delta. Do you think he will stuff Delta by selling a stake to UK GOV ?

[hamhamham1] 21/3/2020 14:01

Possibly yes, but hmg will want to get out as soon as poss and would settle just for their money back I suspect. They are not here profit I believe, but to prop up then get out asap.

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 13:59

That’s unless they are looking to bail out at multiples of current market cap? Could see BA split out of IAG at the end of this which would get my vote. A great post brexit blue chip. Maybe this is what HMG have in mind.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 13:56

Smithy.....makes sense to me .

[smithys2019] 21/3/2020 13:53

My guess is Qatar won’t want to see their existing stake diluted much further. Any dilution will hurt them just as much will it not and significantly limit any upside as HMG will be selling the gain. I would say it a certainty they will want to do this, rather than HMG step in, dilute then benefit massively from the growth in stock price.

[m1k3y1] 21/3/2020 13:52

This is a prime example of unfair competition.

The GOV enforces shutdown of businesses, thereby financially damaging them.
It then offers to support the very businesses that have been damaged but wants to financially benefit from that support. However, those businesses that are not quoted on the FTSE, don't have to worry about GOV taking a stake in their companies.

This affects businesses such as IAG, that have been carefully managing their finances, as well those those that have not.

The alternative, is to allow those businesses to continue trading and not to impose self isolation and shutting down of SME's.

Then it would be survival of the fittest, which of course would include people, as well as companies.

GOV should either support everyone, or support no one.

Years ago UK GOV owned BA to but they sold it to the public. It was only when it became a quoted company that it started to become profitable.

Governments have never done well owning companies.

[careful] 21/3/2020 13:35

Much of the fantasy wealth in shares and pension funds all of sudden evaporates.

Watching those presenters on CNBC, feeling so smart and smug when the Dow was 29,000.
Cramer urging everyone to buy Apple when the company was stupidly valued at $1.4 Tr.
How stupid, the have halved.
The idiot does not seem to understand that smartphones with all other fancy apps will become so cheap within 10 years they will give them away with Cornflakes.

He has caused many to lose fortunes.
And it is not just the virus.