Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 02/2/2007 10:34

I think everyone is saying the same thing in different ways. Management say they have adequate funds for their current pipeline of business so any immediate capital raising is unlikely.

If they start working on more large contracts (e.g. with several States on the Real ID programme) in the near future for which they need to hire futher staff prior to the revenues ramping up next year then obviously the situation may change.

I think we've pretty much exhausted the subject.

[bigpunt10] 02/2/2007 10:30

Placing? Then. Profits warning.?

Is that black clouds I see on the horizon?

[aphrodites] 02/2/2007 09:47

spooky

I keep telling you that is not a fact.

Why don't you call the FD and make sure the advice my friend gave me is correct?

[spooky] 02/2/2007 09:00

The company does not need to raise more capital,this is a fact.

The only circumstances which would change this are if the company won so much business that the up front costs resulted in a need for further capital.If this occurs i suspect the share price will be somewhat higher and investors will be falling over themselves to buy the stock.

[wjccghcc] 02/2/2007 08:44

Ah well, back to the days of a 3p spread. I was quite enjoying the 0.5p - gave us better liquidity.

[aphrodites] 02/2/2007 08:41

jailbird

I was one of the first to warn about the need to raise more cash.

I hope you do not think I am repeating myself but I thought it might be worth repeating what I posted 2 weeks ago. I know you have covered this.

For what it is worth, a very reliable business friend whose company has a large holding in IGP spoke to the F.D. who assured him they did not intend to dilute the share value any further.

If we trust the FD then the only other way to raise cash would be by bank borrowing and I can assure you banks do not lend to companies like IGP without a stake in the action.

I know things change quickly but at this stage if the FD is found to be giving misleading information on cash flow then he and the company are for the knackers yard!

[jailbird] 02/2/2007 08:31

yes u absoultely right wjcc..

they've survived for several years on very tight cashflow mainly because they did not have much working capital needed, which is not the case now.

whether the upfront fees and current cash is enough will have to be seen..Either way a samll fund raising IF needed will be positive...but there are no hints from recent posts that there will be!

[wjccghcc] 02/2/2007 08:23

rambutan, you may well be right. However they're only expected to breakeven in H2 (subject to contract delays) so a loss for the full year of around 300k would be fine. It's the revenues in 12 months time that will begin to show the potential here. Also, they've survived for several years on very tight cashflow when no-one cared about the CMS/IDMS sector. If they did do a placing, I suspect it would be snapped up and any dip in share price would be unlikely to last long.

It's the nature of smart card projects that they're so important, you're looking at 2-3 years lead time from starting work on the contract (which is when they incur their costs) to ramp up of card issuance which is when they earn their license fees. With all the contracts they've been involved in, this should start contributing substantially to the 07/08 FY and significantly to the 08/09 FY.

The ironic thing is that the more contracts they work on now, the more their short-term costs (and losses) will be. Still, I know which I'd rather be the case!

I find it helps to remember that IGP have managed to become almost a must-have in pretty much any complex biometric smart card/ID card project and yet their market cap is .... 21mm.

[jailbird] 02/2/2007 07:58

dreams u remember do not come true!

as u said concentrate on the long term future..lets us hope this niggle(that i have to) is erased by some good news from the company.

I certainly do not expect a profits warning at all...but a great outlook for year!

[rambutan2] 01/2/2007 23:32

only 58 days to y/e ie 31/03, and last year they released a trading statement/profit warning on the last day of march.

must admit that i feel just slightly uneasy at mo (i even had a bad dream re igp the other night!) due to that interim reported cash position and acknowledgement that homeland orders were coming in slower than expected, as i suspect have orders from other areas. plus the share sales in recent weeks.

that said, am more enthused than ever re the longer term picture.

[rambutan2] 01/2/2007 22:11

bit of background on the Real ID programme...

[jailbird] 01/2/2007 16:44

well another 30k sold today...any no buyers...
best if u lot stop buying for now(WCCJ..). MMs will have drop the
price to get rid of them but will not need to if peeps keeps buying with the seller..:-)..we may be able get these a little cheaper..let us paupers in!

[igoe104] 01/2/2007 09:41

Looks like the next few months are going to be interesting, this could well rocket up, soon.

looks like the australian id card, is going ahead.

THE Federal Government is pushing ahead with its controversial national ID card, yesterday calling for tenders to manage the program.

[rambutan2] 01/2/2007 00:54

wj, that's a good point you make...

However, it now seems that the technology specs are fluid and there is a move to make it more sophisticated/secure, include biometric data and comply with HSPD-12.


note that the protection of ports is a big political issue in the states and the democrats promised to make it a priority if they got elected (which of course they did)...

[igoe104] 31/1/2007 13:31

MORE stuff on that wjcc.

TSA said the card would contain biometric identifying information, and that a breakdown in telecommunications links, caused for example by a widespread storm, would not snarl the credential's identification function.

[wjccghcc] 31/1/2007 12:30

I've been relieving the seller of few :-)

Opportunities to buy in volume don't come along very often with IGP. I agree it's probably one of the original backers exiting at anything above the float price.

[igoe104] 31/1/2007 10:05

more interesting news from gemalto.

[spooky] 30/1/2007 17:46

I would feel comfortable saying that the seller does not know more about the company than we do,who ever he is.I would ignore him or better still if you believe the story relieve him of a few shares :-o)

[igoe104] 30/1/2007 17:26

LOOKS like mr T trade has come back again. surpise ! surpise!

he must have sold over 400,000 shares by now, it will interesting to see how much he has left.

I think ram is right, i think he was an original investor,when the company first floated, and is just happy to get his money back, after many years in the red.

[igoe104] 30/1/2007 12:24

latest news on gsa 40 government agencies.

This demonstration will be no small task for the selected vendor. It will require a virtually complete HSPD-12 environment including sponsorship, enrollment, adjudication, issuance, activation, and credential use. Mr. Duncan adds, "the card they give us prior to award will go through the GSA test lab to make sure it passes all the (tests) that NIST provided

[wjccghcc] 29/1/2007 16:15

Fair point spooky. I didn't mean the GSA rebid was of any particular financial importance - more the difference between winning the 40% of the US government they've already won(which as you say is stunning) vs winning 98% (which would be jaw-dropping) and the reputational premium that would add to any takeover value at this moment in time.

With the directors owning 28% and a loyal group of investors most of whom have been with the company since flotation in 2001 at 60p, I doubt most would sell just when things are turning their way unless a takeover provided them with at least a 20% compound return over the 6 years. That gives 180p. Is it worth that now? Possibly. Will it be worth that in 12 months time? A lot more likely I'd say.

[spooky] 29/1/2007 15:40

I don't think anyone should fall into the trap of thinking any single contract is of particular importance and i include GSA and indeed the U.K. ID card.Within 5-10 years most of the world's population will have been issued with at least one 'identity card' by their government,bank,trading partner or employer.There will be a lot of contracts to be won and Intercede only needs to win a small percentage to make the current market cap. look too low.The fact that they have won almost all of the HSPD-12 business is frankly stunning.