Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[pyman] 15/11/2024 16:37

dollar up v squid ... earnings up !

[pyman] 30/10/2024 13:48

wow... 196.....

[pyman] 30/10/2024 13:46

aim relief rally ... hope they bought a few yesterday on buy back ....

[ianhamo] 30/10/2024 10:06

They don't appear to be in any hurry to start the buy back.When they announced the buy back there was approx 40 trading day left until Xmas.Thats an average of £25k per day. The longer they leave it the more aggressive the buying will be.

[smithie6] 26/10/2024 15:57

....hope that the Govt doesn't tax shareholders to pay compensation for the slave trade !!
or to pay for the billions intended to be wasted on capturing CO2 !
(that is the most insane idea I have heard for many years)
...spending billions to capture CO2 while in parallel investing hundreds of millions in incinerators to produce CO2 !!
(& doing nothing at all to reduce the production of waste.....which is then burnt producing CO2 !)

(let's hope us humans manage to change & live within the planet's limits before we trash the planet & have so many contaminants in what we eat & breathe that we can't escape from eating & breathing polluted food/air with the subsequent damage to health.

We are already warned not to eat fish such as swordfish too often because of pollutants in it (mercury ??). And in many areas the local water cannot be drunk because it contains unhealthy levels of nitrates (from pig farms or fertilisers).

[pyman] 25/10/2024 10:34

share buy back prog.. 1million ... makes sense .. if co reckons its shares are cheap .. .. any pull back covered for a while.. . I do sincerely hope labour do not mess with AIM ....

[texaspete2] 23/10/2024 13:52

I was wondering if the US elections may put some government dept spending on hold perhaps?

[wjccghcc] 23/10/2024 13:21

Looks like pre Budget profit taking. Volumes are pretty small.

[essential] 23/10/2024 12:41

Any reason for the drop?

[pyman] 22/10/2024 22:19

nasdaq average PE is 27.02....$$ earner.. handy given strength of the dollar ..

fair price but I live in hope of sales accelerating

[alphabeta4] 11/10/2024 13:03

Just to say Tom you're ignoring the cash which is pretty significant at c28p a share - this does reduce the multiple somewhat. I'd still accept whether it's then 'cheap' is open to debate, personally at say 5p forward eps £1.53 equates to forward 25 which doesn't feel too bad to me for the growth on offer. I also expect revenue will end up around £17.8m given the usual H2 skew with 62.5% net margin meaning £4.06m pbt not £3m for 5.7p this year alone.

I only held a small position so have added at £1.50, happy to wait for the 26/11 results where I expect a significant upgrade.

[wjccghcc] 10/10/2024 14:23

Fair enough.

[74tom] 10/10/2024 13:22

WGCC - their forecast is for 4.2p this year, I used 5p to illustrate how expensive it is right now. At 4.2p / 165p they are on 39x, at 215p high it was on 51x! Part of the problem is that they sell perpetual licenses to the US gov, it would be a completely different ball game if they were annual recurring revenue.

A good company but I'll wait for 30x PER, so 130-135p, which also happens to be where long term support lies. I'd be a buyer there if we get serious AIM volatility at the end of the month.

[wjccghcc] 10/10/2024 11:23

74tom, the ex-cash PE for 5p EPS is in around 28x at 170p so arguably about right for a world leader in a growing market.

The Cavendish forecast is pretty much the base case from the company. Even though licenses are lumpy, it does build the S&M base. According to Cavendish, their recurring revenues are running at around 11.6mm so all the announced Professional services/licence orders will be on top of that.

There are likely $30mm license revenues to come from the US government over the next few years (GSA and DoD). If they win those, that adds $6mm to the recurring revenues as well as the oneoff sales at 99% margin.

Then there's Europe who are way behind the US in security - one of their EU partners at the CMD was predicting the EU market will be 10x over the next 5 years because of. the new regulations. There's also the MFA enterprise space which is also likely to grow at 20%+ for the foreseeable future.

Personally I see the share price fluctuating between 150-250p depending on timing which is unpredictable. If you want better visibility, then maybe better to invest in a SaaS company with 80%+ recurring revenues?

[ianhamo] 10/10/2024 10:33

What's happening here? Institution reducing to cover client withdrawals ahead of the budget?

[74tom] 10/10/2024 10:12

Shares got way ahead of themselves after that Microsoft RNS, even if they report 5p EPS vs the 4.2p currently forecast they will be on a 35x PER. Cavendish are forecasting EPS growth of <10% for FY26 which in no way justifies such a lofty rating.

If you are going to be buying and holding for 5 years then you need a damn good entry price and this is not it IMO.

[smithie6] 10/10/2024 10:02

interesting share to try to value now, imo.

Good tech, great clients, but expensive shares, lumpy big orders are the exciting orders that the mkt has liked.....& likely/possible reduction of turnover this year versus last year, which puts a spotlight on the high p/e. etc

Interesting.

[smithie6] 10/10/2024 09:58

....it is interesting to look at the chart....
..while many value or "fundamentals" investors such as myself might laugh at chartists warbling on about third waves & price targets stated with confidence to 0..01% (wharghhh !)

the chart is/was very useful here
since it nicely illustrates the big & fast rise up in share price, followed by the range bound plateau at the top.
In that plateau region with the p/e at a high rating there was a risk of the share price falling back. And the chart makes it easy to imagine the people sitting on big profits that might sell to protect cash 'if' the share price did fall.
So, charts can sometimes be useful.

[basem1] 10/10/2024 09:42

I agree Smithie I cannot get my head around those numbers It looks like there is going to be a fall in sales value year on year Too many red lights to buy here at present 160p I could be interested again

[smithie6] 09/10/2024 10:39

marktime1231

I'll post whenever I want !!

:-)

And the text in my post is correct. And is supported by the text in your post, which says the same but in other words.

[pyman] 09/10/2024 10:37

rating right now is pretty modest i reckon .. next year end circ 17mill ptp and 17 cash and sales now broadening ..all looks good to me

[wjccghcc] 08/10/2024 13:36

According to Cavendish, the 1mm outflow was due to final acquisition escrow payments, working capital movement and continued planned IT infrastructure investment. They expect FY cash of 18.5mm.

[marktime1231] 08/10/2024 12:30

We have been sufficiently warned that last year's results were dominated by a large one-off not-to-be-repeated US order. So don't start posting !! when the current year is being advised as in-line but short of repeating the unrepeatable.

What is a bit surprising is that after 6 months of healthy trading they have burnt £1M cash when we have become used to the coffers swelling. Mind you with so much dosh in the bank I suspect net interest has become a dominant contributor to the bottom line. What else might they do with it ... a 10% capital reduction, or use it as a lure for a buyout?

[smithie6] 08/10/2024 12:12

but £17.5m would be lower than last year, £20m !!

if so the share price will surely fall imo, since it is priced for high growth.

[alphabeta4] 08/10/2024 11:27

For those on Research Tree the 18/6/24 Canvendish note had a good chart with H2 revenue never having been below H1 in recent years. As others have mentioned it just looks cautious guidance rather than anything sinister. FWIW I suspect it will be at least £8m revenue H2 for £17.5m outturn with most of this extra revenue dropping to EPS in line with usual gearing.

*Edit - £9m for £17.5m outturn.