Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[wjccghcc] 29/11/2024 07:56

Plus a first mention of Singapore.

[rambutan2] 28/11/2024 23:35

Yes, very upbeat. I hadn't previously quite understood the potential of the Riverbird partnership, Microsoft Entra is yet to kick in, SecureVault appears interesting, and noting that both Entra and SecureVault have come about due to client requests. There are still big US govt deals in the pipeline, and also UK govt stuff and a first mention I can remember of Australian and NZ govt potential. Anything landed from now until Y/E drops straight to the bottom line as costs already covered by 1st half.

[wjccghcc] 28/11/2024 16:54

Very upbeat results presentation on IMC. Well worth watching the replay when it's available.

[wjccghcc] 28/11/2024 14:46

100p seems a bit harsh. Cavendish upgraded this year's forecast to 4.8p after the interims so that would be a PE of 20 on earnings that are pretty much in the bag (since they don't have the large federal contracts in forecasts until they're awarded) and that ignores the 26p of cash. Take out the interest income, apply a PE of 20 and add back the 26p cash and you get 110p which also seems a very miserly rating for a global leader in their space with Europe/APAC yet to adopt secure credential management like the US government.

There is single digit $mm GSA contract to come (if they win it but it is the only large federal agency they don't have) and double digit DoD rollout of licenses to come this year or next but as you say, they have little visibility on contract timings.

Personally, I always thought 140-150p was fair value without these contracts given their double digit underlying growth and materially higher weighted pipeline vs last year. Once the DoD starts rolling out, this will be back to 200p IMHO, but that could be this year or next.

[ianhamo] 28/11/2024 14:13

Broker raised their PT from 140 to 200?

[johndoe23] 28/11/2024 14:09

Way over valued

[74tom] 28/11/2024 14:00

It's not harsh at all, on 21/11/23 they were trading at 71p and reported H1 EPS of 2.7p & ahead of expectations trading. They then won a large perceptual license deal and still the market wasn't that bothered, with shares holding at under 100p. It was only when the final results landed that PI's got excited and drove shares up to all time highs on basic EPS of 10.3p.

This year is likely to see a more than 50% fall in EPS, yet shares were trading at 37x PER going into the results. The lack of an upgrade was a surprise to me, as I've no idea what the company were doing wasting their cash on a share buyback if they knew H2 revenue was on track to be below H1 (£16.1m forecast, so H2 must be on track for £7.5m at present).

Plenty will have profits to protect here, so I wouldn't be surprised to see retest £1 in the next few months if they don't win any material contracts.

[robow] 28/11/2024 13:44

seems harsh

[wjccghcc] 26/11/2024 10:11

That will depend on conversion of the materially increased weighted pipeline. There are two very large Federal projects (GSA and DoD rollout) due but the timing is out of their control. If one of them lands before the year end there will be a significant beat, otherwise it will likely be next year.

[stuart37] 26/11/2024 09:43

Too much expectation by investors - many were hoping for an outlook upgrade......

[petewy] 26/11/2024 09:36

Results look good.Why the drop?

[rambutan2] 21/11/2024 17:07

Well, he's excited:

Erik Plenter, Business Development Manager of Infinigate NL, said:

"We are thrilled to add Intercede's innovative Digital ID solutions to our offering. This partnership allows us to offer our customers, particularly those using Yubico's products, a comprehensive management solution that meets the highest standards of security and usability.

Additionally, the partnership will incorporate recent technological advancements from Intercede's collaboration with Microsoft through its management of FIDO Passkeys through Entra ID, further enhancing the solution's capabilities.

Infinigate NL has already started to offer Intercede's solutions to its customers, with plans for continuous expansion of offerings and support services".

[pyman] 15/11/2024 16:37

dollar up v squid ... earnings up !

[pyman] 30/10/2024 13:48

wow... 196.....

[pyman] 30/10/2024 13:46

aim relief rally ... hope they bought a few yesterday on buy back ....

[ianhamo] 30/10/2024 10:06

They don't appear to be in any hurry to start the buy back.When they announced the buy back there was approx 40 trading day left until Xmas.Thats an average of £25k per day. The longer they leave it the more aggressive the buying will be.

[smithie6] 26/10/2024 15:57

....hope that the Govt doesn't tax shareholders to pay compensation for the slave trade !!
or to pay for the billions intended to be wasted on capturing CO2 !
(that is the most insane idea I have heard for many years)
...spending billions to capture CO2 while in parallel investing hundreds of millions in incinerators to produce CO2 !!
(& doing nothing at all to reduce the production of waste.....which is then burnt producing CO2 !)

(let's hope us humans manage to change & live within the planet's limits before we trash the planet & have so many contaminants in what we eat & breathe that we can't escape from eating & breathing polluted food/air with the subsequent damage to health.

We are already warned not to eat fish such as swordfish too often because of pollutants in it (mercury ??!!). And in many areas the local water cannot be drunk because it contains unhealthy levels of nitrates (from pig farms or fertilisers)).

[pyman] 25/10/2024 10:34

share buy back prog.. 1million ... makes sense .. if co reckons its shares are cheap .. .. any pull back covered for a while.. . I do sincerely hope labour do not mess with AIM ....

[texaspete2] 23/10/2024 13:52

I was wondering if the US elections may put some government dept spending on hold perhaps?

[wjccghcc] 23/10/2024 13:21

Looks like pre Budget profit taking. Volumes are pretty small.

[essential] 23/10/2024 12:41

Any reason for the drop?

[pyman] 22/10/2024 22:19

nasdaq average PE is 27.02....$$ earner.. handy given strength of the dollar ..

fair price but I live in hope of sales accelerating

[alphabeta4] 11/10/2024 13:03

Just to say Tom you're ignoring the cash which is pretty significant at c28p a share - this does reduce the multiple somewhat. I'd still accept whether it's then 'cheap' is open to debate, personally at say 5p forward eps £1.53 equates to forward 25 which doesn't feel too bad to me for the growth on offer. I also expect revenue will end up around £17.8m given the usual H2 skew with 62.5% net margin meaning £4.06m pbt not £3m for 5.7p this year alone.

I only held a small position so have added at £1.50, happy to wait for the 26/11 results where I expect a significant upgrade.

[wjccghcc] 10/10/2024 14:23

Fair enough.

[74tom] 10/10/2024 13:22

WGCC - their forecast is for 4.2p this year, I used 5p to illustrate how expensive it is right now. At 4.2p / 165p they are on 39x, at 215p high it was on 51x! Part of the problem is that they sell perpetual licenses to the US gov, it would be a completely different ball game if they were annual recurring revenue.

A good company but I'll wait for 30x PER, so 130-135p, which also happens to be where long term support lies. I'd be a buyer there if we get serious AIM volatility at the end of the month.