Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[taurusthebear] 29/3/2007 14:01

Actually, if the price had spiked 10p on a separate TWIC announcement, I may have offloaded some, because I know the way the share price works here. But they didn't realease it separately, and it didn't spike. But at least the news may act as support for the current price.

I'm wary of companies that talk themselves up, and so far I haven't seen IGP do that, because Parris's comments seem to genuinely reflect what we've seen in the partnerships and deals so far announced. :0)

[aphrodites] 29/3/2007 13:55

Taurus

I would have money with you that the FD has a monitor on his desk which shows the share price!!!!!! :0)

[taurusthebear] 29/3/2007 13:52

I doubt if the management spend too much time worrying about the share price with regard to RNS releases. People who buy and sell on news come and go, they are just noise. The real money will be made if and when the company deliver, because no-one can deny the numbers if and when IGP start generating profits.

I suspect manangement are more concerned with creating a successful business than catering to short-term traders. :0)

[aphrodites] 29/3/2007 13:46

Interesting 100k deal just gone across the screens at 57p.

Right in the middle of the buy/sell spread.

[aphrodites] 29/3/2007 11:06

igoe/WJCC

In my experience many F.D.'s are totally unaware of what is or is not shareprice sensitive.

It would not hurt to have a word with the FD and ask him why the compnnay brokers were not giving this announcement more exposure.

[igoe104] 29/3/2007 09:15

Mr parris in the past has known to drop one or two hints, so you never know.
we are all expecting a gsa annoucement any day(week) now, that should put some life back in the share price (if positive,) which im expecting.

I agree a sperate RNS and worded differently, on the twic project, would at least put 10p on the s/p, the figure the company came out with 750,000, might only amount to 5% of the total roll-out of the project.

like wjcc as said on a number times, these usa projects won,t start kicking until april/may time, i think 2007/08 interims will make interesting reading, it will wake a few folks up.

but the big one, which will make us comfortable is the real id project, lots of talk about it at the moment. over time it will involve over 280 million amercian drivers.

[wjccghcc] 28/3/2007 17:59

Don't think so igoe (although that would be nice). Even if they do win the GSA contract there won't be any revenues this year. What they mean is that because MyID is integrated with so many partners now, they often don't know what projects it is being used to bid for (unless they have a direct involvement) so don't find out about contract wins until the partner informs them which can be some time after the fact.

The only way a £19mm company from Lutterworth has managed to dominate the high-end of the ID card universe is by marketing/proving themselves to the 50 or so smart card cos, security cos, system integrators and SSP providers with whom they work closely to integrate MyID and train staff. They have very little contact with the end users in most cases unless there's a special requirement.

Looks like end of year tax selling to me with the price drifting on a grand total of 10k shares traded. It's strange but if they'd released the TWIC contract as a separate RNS it would have put 10p on the shareprice. Still, at this rate I might have to start adding again.

[igoe104] 28/3/2007 16:45

Following the progress made during the year, the Board expects revenue for the
full year to 31 March 2007 to be no less than 20% higher than last year, which
does not take into account the possible reporting of any late partner wins. The
Group has also been cash generative since 30 September 2006.


With the company making note of this.


(which
does not take into account the possible reporting of any late partner wins.)


that to me means they are expecting news about, gsa usa government 40 agencies soon,
or why mention it.

[carly2] 28/3/2007 13:19

Thanks igoe for your post 1116 - the link says that only 1000 cards had been issued since October - though they were expecting a ramp up between April and June - in time for igp's results announcement!!

[igoe104] 28/3/2007 09:20

Interesting bit, on the uk national id card.

[jailbird] 28/3/2007 09:20

thanks WJ, that is interesting 25% from US, and that is mainly just upfront fees.

So there is plenty of scope for other work to bring more revenues..hmmm

[wjccghcc] 28/3/2007 09:00

Well ones I can think of offhand include the NHS (500k licenses likely to be expanded further), John Lewis rollout (80k) and Lockheed Martin (200k). Also they work closely with the big UK banks for their coporate customers, The Met Police and several UK government departments.

Of their 2.6mm revenues in the year just finished, I'd estimate only 25% came from the US.

[jailbird] 28/3/2007 08:52

i know the US TWIC program and the HSPD-12 program are big for IGP..but these are still a while away before the large revenues come in....so i hope there are other largish contracts with others in the pipeline apart from these two.

Does anyone see where other largish contracts could come from...it seems we are just relying on these for now.

[igoe104] 28/3/2007 08:47

LATEST ON THE HSPD-12 PROJECT.


If holders stay patient, for another 2-3 years, they will be well rewarded.

[carly2] 28/3/2007 08:22

Thanks igoe and WJ for your posts - much appreciated

[wjccghcc] 28/3/2007 08:17

Well after yesterday's excitement, the MMs have widened the spread again. However it appears there is a lot less stock on offer than before so maybe the seller is reassessing the situation in light of the TWIC contract win.

[aphrodites] 28/3/2007 08:12

Taurus

Point taken and I agree.

But I hope I did not give the impression I had bought on bid hopes alone.

I believe IGP has great potential on just ordinary growth prospects.

The point I was making was this share is illiquid and very few institutions hold stock. Who knows what the right price is at this stage.

Any would be buyer could easilly put a ceiling on the share price at this time by offering stock to a MM to keep a lid on it.

On the other hand if an institution wanted to buy in any size the price could quickly move to around £1. Then a takeover would be only be multiple of 1.

Fantasy is what you are prepared to pay for buying technology which is at the leading edge of the market. And IGP certainly appears to be in this camp.

[taurusthebear] 28/3/2007 05:12

APHRO - Personally, I never buy a share on the basis of expecting a bid. That outcome is just a lottery IMO. Also, I've never ever seen a bidder offer more than twice the prevailing share price for a company, usually more like 1.5 times. So I think any talk of 2 quid a share at this time is pure fantasy!

I'm just keeping my shares because I can see high margin revenue getting closer and closer whilst at the same time Intercede seem to be doing all the right things in relation to impending deals and partnerships. If they don't get taken out, I think IGP could get to well over 2 quid a share in the next 2 or 3 years. :0)

[wjccghcc] 27/3/2007 21:12

carly, it's all a question of revenue recognition. These smartcard projects can take 2-4 years to full implementation from contract award, with IGP having worked on the project (and incurring costs) for 12-18 months before the contract is even awarded. There may be an initial payment or a milestone payment on completion of a pilot implementation but usually they get paid on a card issued basis. So when they said they had £2mm of orders then that would be confirmed licences to issue cards. However they won't book the revenue until those cards are issued and that can take a while. The positive cashflow is probably a better indication of their real profitability at the moment.

[igoe104] 27/3/2007 19:14

The latest on the real id project.


To be honest carly, i,m more looking forward than backwards. lots of growth over the next few years for igp.

[carly2] 27/3/2007 17:50

I'm not sure what others thought - but I was a little disappointed that they were only talking of 'at least 20%' turnover increase. I took the earlier comment that orders in the period to December 2006 were equivalent to £2m that that would then follow through to sales in the 31/03/2007 year. I know WJ cautioned against that - and he was totally right to be cautious.
However, with the ever increasing number of announced contracts, it has to be only a matter of time before it finaly reflects in turnover and profit.
Ah well, lets hope for a positive trading update when we get the results in May/ June.
Best wishes to all.

[igoe104] 27/3/2007 15:12

HOPEFULLY we will also be involved in hspd-12 40 usa government agencies as well, next.

This is the latest on the situation.