Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[carly2] 15/12/2006 13:21

Hi WJ, igoe and others
Thanks for all the posts and research so far. Any idea of possible profit y/e 31/03/07 and 31/03/08. At £20m, it still seems incredibly cheap for what could happen soon.
I do hope that with the increase in orders since the 30/09/06 that a fundraising will not be needed - and if it is, I want to be in!!
Best wishes to all

[wjccghcc] 15/12/2006 12:37

You also lose your CGT taper relief Taurus unless you buy back in 30 days. At least half my stake was bought below 20p 12-18 months ago. With the size of my holding, a 75% reduction in the taper is a huge tax saving. I do sell and buy back other stocks but with IGP, the availability of volumes to buy is very unpredictible. Yes, I could make 15% profit (including spread) in a short-term sale/buyback but if I missed the 30 day window, I'd lose twice that much in tax.

[igoe104] 15/12/2006 11:52

MORE ON THE DUTCH ID CARD.

The Dutch Defense Telematics Organization (Defensie Telematica Organisatie) has instructed the Siemens Business Services and Getronics PinkRoccade consortium to supply a new identity card for all employees of the Dutch Ministry of Defense



(PS I BET that 60k was your sell taurus, a few weeks back at 58p.)
have to disagree with you taurus, their looks is lots of up-coming news flow in this company, going into 2007 it looks a very strong buy.

[holgerl] 15/12/2006 08:58

Check out Character, CCT ---BREAKOUT!!! We could get a 50p lift here quite soon

[taurusthebear] 15/12/2006 08:54

WGC - you miss the point. Sell into strength and buy into weakness/boredom. Size is relative. I sold my third in different tranches over time.

jailbird - not interested at the moment, I've already done my trades in IGP. I may think about buying in 3 months time, if the price is right. :0)

[jailbird] 15/12/2006 05:00

taurus,

i think a buying opp was this morning when it hit 52/55p.
it would be nice if we can get another chance.

[wjccghcc] 15/12/2006 02:20

Taurus, if I sold a third of my holding I wouldn't be able to buy it back without shifting the price 20p.

[taurusthebear] 15/12/2006 01:39

"If you're not prepared to hold these for at least 12-18 months, you really shouldn't bother - short-term trading is extemely hard with these."

Disagree. I sold about a third of my holding at a good profit before these results. As always with small caps., the time to sell is when everyone is optimistic, and the time to buy when the pessimism is overdone. Right now I'd say we're in nowhere land, but I suspect that a buying opp. may not be too far off, as happened after the last results! :0)

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 15:25

WATCH OUT FOR THE RAPID GROWTH worldwide health smart cards.

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 13:16

WELL pointed out wjcc.
so its quite possible we could have a least 2 big RNS annoucements soon.

1. The inclusion of MyID technology in a HSPD-12 managed service offering from a large scale provider targeting US Federal Government and civilian agencies. This managed service was used to enable 18 Federal Agencies to meet their 27 October 2006 HSPD- 12 deadline for initial smart card issuance."

That's the NBC deal with IBM and Lockheed. With the 47 agency


(.4. Additional contract wins secured by our partners in the Middle East.)


7 million health cards for the middle east, with gemalto.

[petrolatinareadthene] 14/12/2006 12:36

Seriously worth a close look at this little gem - PELE

Latest RNS highlight

Under the terms of the announced contract, the partners in the project will
invest US$40 million over the next two and a half years and, accordingly,
estimate that oil production from the Tibu Field will rise to 15,000 barrels of
oil per day ("bopd") from its current level of 1,800 bopd. Under the terms of
the existing transportation agreement, this would increase PetroLatina's net
income from the Pipeline to US$6.0 million from its current level of US$1.5
million per year.

NET INCOME INCREASING 400% is the piece to take from there..

Previous RNS on the SERAFIN GAS ACCUMULATIOn

"The initiation of the Serafin Gas accumulation is a key milestone in the
Company's development. We are now firmly focussed on Colombia where we already
have a revenue stream from oil production of approximately 500 barrels of oil a
day and pipeline tariff income. The Serafin gas development has proven test
rates and will provide the Company with additional early cashflows as well as
substantially increasing our revenues from Colombia. Management is pleased to
see the Company moving ahead as planned and we are excited about the further
developments over the coming months."

THEY ALREADY KNOW THE GAS IS THERE!!!

Spudding in JAN.

So company has - or soon will have

6 million a year NET from their pipeline

500 bopd oil

And soon add gas on top

Mkt cap around 20 million

Undervalued - err yes - just a little...

[wjccghcc] 14/12/2006 12:35

In the US so only just read the results. As was likely, costs have had to ramp up ahead of revenues with full year costs now likely to approach 3mm - I'd guess that's a good 20% increase in average staff numbers plus lots of travel to the US. Surprised noone's mentioned the really good news in the announcement:

"The inclusion of MyID technology in a HSPD-12 managed service offering from a large scale provider targeting US Federal Government and civilian agencies. This managed service was used to enable 18 Federal Agencies to meet their 27 October 2006 HSPD- 12 deadline for initial smart card issuance."

That's the NBC deal with IBM and Lockheed. With the 47 agency GSA contract up for recompetition (and likely fragmentation among the approved providers) that means MyID is being used for 24 out of the 25 announced HSPD-12 contracts i.e. a 95% market share! I very much doubt that will be maintained but when you think there is predicted to be up to 8mm cards issued under HSPD-12 by Oct 2008 you can see we're talking about a quantum leap in revenues. This may still be over a year away since they get paid once the cards have actually been issued, but since total H1 licenses sold were probably around 320k you can see the operational gearing.

The only downside is the cash situation - we can see now why they pushed the ocnvertible debt out to 2009. With orders booked of another £900k already, I'd say they may well break even in H2 so cash level is likely to stabilise. However, a placing is certainly possible. Given their very loyal shareholder base, I suspect it would be done to them, possibly in the form of a convertible. Time will tell but generally I'm very happy where we are.

If you're not prepared to hold these for at least 12-18 months, you really shouldn't bother - short-term trading is extemely hard with these.

[njp] 14/12/2006 11:21

A placing looks likely. Can't see it being lower than 40p, though, and would hope higher. Placees, though, will be viewing the absolute certainty of good profits to come and non-placees will be looking to grab ahares at anything within 10-15% of the placing price.

The other option though, just to wrong-foot us all, might be debt. Not totally unfeasible, given the low cashburn and contracts in place.

Either way, given the prospects, seems best to ride it out and add on weakness.

[boadicea] 14/12/2006 09:41

pork - Given the reference to 31st March 2007 earlier in the same paragraph, I think we should assume they mean FY.

All very positive sounding except for timing uncertainty of US orders and the fact that further finance will soon be required, if only as a temporary measure. If it is to finance firm booked orders, loan finance should be possible although a placing would be a lower gearing/risk solution.
I would not be surprised to see a further statement addressing that issue shortly, possibly in days rather than weeks or months.
If a placing, would it include an open offer and at what price? Depending on the quality of the uptake there might or might not be a nasty overhang.
The company is in a better psychological position to negotiate these hurdles than most imho. However, the strength of nih feeling in USA should not be underestimated especially when it impinges on security matters.

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 09:32

usa contract annoucements, and uk national id cards, (involvement annoucement) will push this higher, you wait and see.
all looks very positive over the next 2 years.

[jailbird] 14/12/2006 09:19

kicking myself a little..let go man...:-)
if some other holdings improve..i think i will buy some back in 2007.
But i would be surprised if these go much higher in the short term.
But med/long term worth buying now.

The above statement sounds better than when i read the results...
so any addidtional orders now will be mean better revenues the last yr.

profitable...not sure yet as increase in costs...these is the reason some funding will be required...does mean a rights issue though which mean a small dilution.... i could see there are other means. But I think institutions want in and i reckon this is the reason the conversion was also extended..just my thoughts.

[pork belly] 14/12/2006 09:16

"...and it anticipates more orders for the current year and beyond."

calender year or FY ? not very clear.

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 09:13

LONDON (AFX) - Intercede Group PLC reported a wider first-half pretax loss
but said it has secured orders to date equalling the whole of last year's sales,
leading to confidence of being able to report "solid" full year growth.
The identity management software company reported a pretax loss of 300,000
stg compared with a loss of 48,000 stg last year. It reported an operating loss
of 0.27 mln stg, "reflecting further investment in sales initiatives, especially
in the US".
Sales dipped marginally to 1.21 mln stg from 1.24 mln stg.
The company said that US Federal agency orders are being slower than
expected. However, it confirmed that it has already booked 500,000 usd worth of
revenue related to the US HSPD-12 mandate requiring government employees and
contractors have new ID cards, and it anticipates more orders for the current
year and beyond.

[rambutan2] 14/12/2006 09:00

i think that's a fair summing up aphrodites (696) and of course the amount gone into staff resources bodes well for the future.

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 09:00

I wonder if this means this.

4. Additional contract wins secured by our partners in the Middle East.


middle east contract which has to be the Algerian 7million health care contract with Gemalto.

[pork belly] 14/12/2006 09:00

the only short term concern is a placing.

looks terrific medium/long term

[yump] 14/12/2006 08:57

Anyone who was expecting a profit and is bothered about the loss, should take a close look at the rises in profit that IGP will have as soon as turnover rises.

Also any need to raise capital is very different for this company than for a pile of others that have done so. The market is littered with companies that seem to constantly need more capital than their original float gave them JUST TO GET THROUGH THE TRIAL STAGE. Thats just bad planning.

IGP is well past the R&D stage, well past the trial stage and past the (extensive) early sales-pitching stage that leads to the first sales.

A nice position to be in if and when you need some more capital, especially when the effect of increased revenue will be so dramatic.

[igoe104] 14/12/2006 08:53

I see uk national id card has a mention, intercede are looking good for an involvement, 2007 looks very promising.

We believe that the US Government market will be the catalyst for the more
widespread adoption of smart cards across all walks of life in the US. This will
create one of the world's largest markets for Intercede's technology. In
parallel with our US activities we are continuing to grow our activities in
Europe and we are also building partnerships in anticipation of the UK
Government starting the contracting process for the UK National ID card.