Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[garth] 14/10/2006 18:36

Topvest,

IMO (though not that of everyone here), SMRT look an interesting addition alongside IGP. WJ believes they look like a UK only outfit - and not unreasonably - but I believe that by 2007/8 it will become clear that that is not the case. Market cap £9m projections for 2008 £3m (broker seems happy enough with that, personally I'd treat it with caution). Currently profitable and line to meet estimates for this year. Their technology lies at the heart of ITSO - the government's interoperability standard for smartcard/transport applications. They partner RBS on EMV/electronic purse/tap and go. RBS look to be climbing into bed with Mastercard. ITSO is being made interopeable with Oyster and Calypso. A bit of joined up thinking and a chunk of lunk and things could look very interesting a few years out IMO. FWIW one of the founders developed MULTOS.

DYOR though.

G.

[igoe104] 14/10/2006 15:47

YOU got to ask yourself, why are other consortium members, have lots of positive (exciting) write up on their web sites, about usa government contracts. they are much bigger caps then igp, by a long shot, if they really thought that revenues were going to be that low, they would hardly get excited about it, would they. the small revenue that you say could possibily happen, would hardly register, with companies like safenet, or entrust. who have billion caps. so you have to ask yourself if these billion cap companies are getting excited about the usa government card rollout, WHAT should a small company of 12 mill, be feeling.

[taurusthebear] 14/10/2006 15:11

igoe - but what if they get 'only' 1 million at a quid profit a time, revenues accrued next year, that would give a forward PE for 2007 of nearly 20, not exactly cheap for something that isn't definite, yet. And I'm not sure what, how great, or how effective, the competition is. Is anyone?

Do IGP get an upfront license fee from each US Fed agency contract they win, and is there any obligation by that agency to actually implement the MyID solution next year (other than naming a solution before the October 27 deadline)?

Point being that no-one really seems to have much idea what sort of revenue they'll get, and as WGC pointed out the other day, the next results aren't going to show the benefits, so there may well be another selloff/markdown as at last results.

Of course, that doesn't matter if you 'keep the faith' and hold long-term, but for me it's still touch and go. My holding seems about right for me (about 7% of my portfolio), for now, but I may be tempted to add a few, we'll see. Certainly seems to be looking more promising recently... :0)

[topvest] 14/10/2006 14:07

I suspect that things could get very interesting here if they win a few more US contracts. Patience is being rewarded at last. Is any other UK stock exposed to this new growth area?

[igoe104] 14/10/2006 11:04

write up about the amercian id card.

[yump] 13/10/2006 14:53

Well with the number of AIM disaster stories with high-flying, high hopes stocks this year, we'll be left with a good solid core of stocks with decent prospects, decent management and strategies and the pi money will increasingly be concentrated on them.

Hopefully there's a limit to how many small companies can be mis-managed with misleading RNS's, smoke and mirrors.

There certainly seem to be a few companies coming through recently that really are delivering and the prospects don't seem to be based on hype or fashion (yet).

ttb you'll know some of the stocks !

[igoe104] 13/10/2006 14:27

The cost of each card is going to cost the usa government, $110 around £60 at a guess i would say costs are going to be around £40 to set them up. profit around £20 for the consortium, i would say between £2 to £3 profit,a card, for intercede, would be a good figure. if we are involved in over 5 million plus cards, it would be very nice. if we make a profit of around 10 mill, for 2007 year end, even on a low p/e, you have to be looking at over £2 a share.
i also think sentlement in small caps, will pick up as we go into november, a good time to hit the market, with some positive rns,s.

[taurusthebear] 13/10/2006 13:44

Yes, I agree yump, it's difficult for me to commit further without knowing the value of any deals, even on a per person basis. Admittedly, such revenue won't come until next year, but it would be nice to have some sort of starting point from which to do a valuation. Therefore, I'd have to agree that it really comes down to RNS-flow, which may seem positive right now, but it's not something I'd like to gamble on. If it goes up, I'm quids in anyway, so no point in getting too carried away. Just because I've done well out of SOLA doesn't mean my luck will necessarily continue.

Also, I see the DOW falling back soon, it just seems to be shrugging off all bad news at the moment, and I'm not sure it can continue, this is crash-month after all! :0)

[yump] 13/10/2006 11:03

Personally I would wait until a pull-back wouldn't put my average price into loss, but what do I know - last time I topped up at 35p only to see it drop straight away. On the other hand another announcement and it might be off again. On the other hand its valued pretty generously in anticipation. It could also be at the top of a gradually rising channel or the middle of a much steeper rising channel.

Sorry to be of no help whatsoever, but I think this one is in the flip a coin stage.

[taurusthebear] 13/10/2006 10:25

Well, you don't know my situation, igoe! ;0)

Seriously, I have 70k, and hadn't planned to add, but IGP do now seem to be in rather a good position with regard to winning some more contracts. I may look to add next week, it would be nice to round up my holding... :0)

[igoe104] 13/10/2006 10:09

If i was in your situation TTB,and had spare cash, i would buy today. not many sellers out there, so i can,t see a further drop in the share price i got a feeling they could be news next week, even maybe monday, get the feeling from the wording of richard parris, they is in-coming news, and soon. actually yesterday they was alot more buys than sells anyway.

[taurusthebear] 13/10/2006 08:51

Sorely tempted to add some more here, but after the jump from 30p to 40p, hoping for a bit more to come off the price. However, there is a timeframe here, and the next few weeks could well see other consortium contract wins. Hmmm! Think I'll sleep on it over the weekend... :0)

[igoe104] 12/10/2006 10:56

yes rambutan, its looks like your right, everything points to an involvement in that project. what i,m expecting now from the intercede management, is to milk the market, by releasing the rns,s one by one. you get more pr for the company,doing it that way. i think this will be 60p by xmas, and over £2 end 2007, £5 end of 2008,. i think their is enough business, in this growing sector, which is predicted to grow over 1000%. plus their is very little competition around, so we should be involved in alot of the projects, especially usa market.

[igoe104] 12/10/2006 09:13

I,LL have alook at it later, rambutan. also this is a area that the company could get into, health smart cards.



also more info on the uk id card.

[wjccghcc] 12/10/2006 00:22

Entrust is a partner and MyID is certainly used in a lot of projects with their PKI solution so there'd be no incompatibility issues. Also, I think MoD might already be a client. I'm not sure if it has any immediate effect on IGP or am I missing something?

[rambutan2] 11/10/2006 21:41

igoe or wj,

any views on post 112?

[andrbea] 11/10/2006 09:05

Intercede mentioned here too

Vendor consortium formed to guide agencies in HSPD-12 compliance and operation
Wednesday, October 4 2006

[rambutan2] 11/10/2006 08:59

looks like us, and fits in with the recent board advisor appointment...

DALLAS, October 11 /PRNewswire/ --

In an effort to enforce their strategy of centrally controlling policy to
maintain a trusted network environment, the United Kingdom's Ministry of
Defence (MoD) sought a public key infrastructure (PKI) solution to manage
authentication, digital signatures and encryption capabilities. Entrust, Inc.
(Nasdaq: ENTU) proudly announces that the company has licensed its Entrust
Authority(TM) Security Manager to the UK's MoD where it is to be used as the
MoD root certification authority (Root CA).

[plast] 10/10/2006 17:03

hi all, question for you , will photo me get involved with id cards, being that they do passport photos etc im not sure of this and it would be great for your feed back, i hold both, thanks.

[rambutan2] 10/10/2006 16:39

taurus, what has increasingly excited me over the last few years is that igp perhaps has a chance of doing an arm or a csr and it's system becoming the de facto standard/provider. many have attempted the ip model but v v few succeeded. the signs coming from the homeland contracts/info so far makes me think that igp are still on track to do something special for a uk company.

[taurusthebear] 10/10/2006 14:55

Aah, but then, igoe, you're faced with the never-ending paradox, viz: are we, the few adherents at a supposedly low price, really prophets, and everyone else blind fools; or are we disillusioned wannabes who don't appreciate competition, margin-erosion and the power of commoditisation?

Hmmm! I tend towards the former, but then I would, wouldn't I? ;0)

[igoe104] 10/10/2006 14:38

anyone selling these must be crazy, at these levels. its a rapidly growing market with hardly any competition, with in coming news, in days or a few weeks, this is only going to get alot higher. i think it will hit £2 within 12 - 18 months.

[taurusthebear] 10/10/2006 14:25

When it rains, it pours. Shows that it definitely can pay to be in unfashionable stocks before they wake up. Bid been solid all day, personally I'd expect to see the price come off tomorrow, but with the very real prospects in store, who'd be selling? Certainly not me, I have illusions (delusions?) of at least a quid a share before I part with any... :0)

[andrbea] 10/10/2006 14:15

good find igoe

I like this bit:

"Now that the federal government has set standards for smart-card IDs, the market probably will expand because government contractors and other companies are likely to adopt the same technology for their own use, Miller said.

Others agree.

"There's money to be made all over the playing field now, simply because of the amount of penetration into the market that the government smart card will have," said Bill Richardson of HID Global, an Irvine, Calif., company that specializes in smart-card technology. "