Intercede Share Discussion Threads

[howdy do da] 14/2/2008 12:41

Bought in. This is going places.

[topvest] 14/2/2008 12:31

Great announcement today. In a good market this probably would have virtually doubled on that news. Oh well, we will have to be content with top of the leaders board, I suppose!

[rivaldo] 14/2/2008 12:20

FYI from Sharecast...similar good stuff on Forbes etc should bring in interest:



"Demand for "MyID" boosts Intercede
Thu 14 Feb 2008

LONDON (SHARECAST) - Smart card and ID management software specialist Intercede is celebrating the capture of a number of new contracts since its interim results were announced on 11 December.

The company highlighted four new contract wins, including an award of a large contract from the UK government that potentially could see more than one million of the company's "MyID" licences issued over a three year period.

Intercede has three major projects that are scheduled to complete within the next 12 months, and these are likely to generate an increase in the company's revenues for the current fiscal year which ends 31 March.

Though the company said it is not possible at this stage to quantify the expected revenue gains for fiscal 2008 from the aforementioned projects, it has calculated that the combined value of the projects plus other existing projects is several times the company's current run rate."

[237gmoney] 14/2/2008 11:06

Awilson, I think the value of the German Health Card project alone is several time IGP's current full year sales volume as is the potential 6million cards for TWIC. The growth rate yr on yr for this company over the next two years is certainly not factored into the current share price otherwise this would be 70-80p....

Its just a shame Credo still have the options as they would be fools not to take them after today's news....if they dont want them can I have them?!?!?:o)

[wjccghcc] 14/2/2008 10:34

Yup 237g. Has worked out rather well on the CGT front. From next year with a flat rate of 18% it would make no difference, but bed and spousing at 25p has meant I don't have to pay 40% this year.

[awilson] 14/2/2008 10:21

The company is saying that the value of contracts is several times its current annual revenue run rate. Simplistically and obviously with a very wide potential margin of error, one comes up with a large sum. Half time revenue was £1.6m, double it and then multiply by "several" then apply the margin figure. Then the only conclusion is that the stock should fly.

[237gmoney] 14/2/2008 10:20

Igoe, seems you done the right thing buying that extra 31,000 @26.5 now....WJ not sure how this affects your CGT figures but im sure your not complaining...

so after todays rise we are back to where we started at the begining of the year so its no big deal....just nice to get mentioned in the press and noticed by others now and again, so for that reason the drop down to 25p and now the rise back was worth it....but really we should be rising towards 40-50p when we had the results last year....

[237gmoney] 14/2/2008 09:46

This may be just a guess, but I think the company have been holding back this statement for a while as the markets settle, the US was up 170 odd points yesterday and today was a good day to release good news.

With inflation heading upwards in the UK, interest rates will now stagnate and the US should start to pick up again. The US exchange rate is much more in IGP's favour these days and the contracts in the Germany where the Euro is strong will boost the balance sheet.

Think your right and this has bottomed, and finally we can start to pick up from here. with only 36m shares in float and over half already taken up it will rise as quickly as it has fallen and guess who wins again.....yes the MM's.

They took your stock cheap and now they are happy sell it higher...I wonder if the Big seller we had is still around or now thinking he should have waited a little longer.....good things come to those who wait!

[njp] 14/2/2008 09:40

Felix

That's the problem. You have to buy in the quiet times.

Nice rise today. People reading between the cautious wording of the statement plus the illiquidity makes for sharp moves.

[mangal] 14/2/2008 09:28

Fundamentals & the story were always good but the sentiment was terrible. Looks like we have bottomed, now that the sentiment has turned & the chart says we could easily climb back to where we started the year.

[garth] 14/2/2008 09:21

Would easily justify 40p by the weekend, IMO.

G.

[237gmoney] 14/2/2008 09:07

Thank you management! Its bad news that they have to come out and say all this to lift the share price but we all know things are going really well here and some contracts we did not know about here which may mean the company make a profit in H2 as well???? It could be possible.

The US bank one sounds very interesting with up to 600 branches involved, the German Health card project with Gemalto looks to be coming IGP's way then also which is 40million+ people! That could be the big project that defines where this company goes and the UK Foreign nationals card will keep this company busy for a long time....I just hope the company have the capacity for all these big projects simultaneously and they are able to manage each one as good as the next...

Great stuff though, lets hope the papers pick this up now and the share mags, and get some PR going, attract some knew investors wanting to make money...this share price is at least 50% lower than it should be right now and has a long back up yet....hopefully we stay at the top of the leader board today!!!

[billbyrne] 14/2/2008 08:48

I meant to say 90+, sorry, as you say WJCCGHCC 99% gross
margins, sure to have a big impact on profits.

[wjccghcc] 14/2/2008 08:41

Actually bill, gross margins are 99%.

[billbyrne] 14/2/2008 08:32

Up 18% and top of the leader board should help
get us on more peoples radar.

[billbyrne] 14/2/2008 08:29

I like particually like this bit,

Intercede calculates that the combined value of
the projects outlined above and other existing projects is several times its
current annual revenue run rate.

As we know, with 90% going straight to the bottom line it
will have a big impact on profits eventually. imo

[wjccghcc] 14/2/2008 08:22

Are they becoming investor friendly in their old age? It's nice to have improved communication anyway - thank you management.

FY ending March may still be a small loss depending on contract timing but 2008/9 is shaping up to be a stormer.

Upto 1mm UK govt related cards over the next 3 years? Well, since they already have the NHS ID card, that can only be the armed forces, civil service or (dare I say it) the initial phase (for foreign citizens) of the UK ID card.

Nice to see healthcare contracts beginning to be won also.

[rivaldo] 14/2/2008 08:14

Agreed boadicea. Peculiar timing for an update? I assume it's in response to the falling share price.

Trading appears to be good and the potential is huge. I'm happy to hold and quietly add as I have been.

[boadicea] 14/2/2008 07:58

Fully confirms this as one of AIM's many sadly under-rated stocks (imho).

[billbyrne] 14/2/2008 07:44

A very good update indeed. Lets hope the
shares get the rerating they deserve.

[smartmoney100] 14/2/2008 07:18

A very good update. You can still see where this one's going :-)

[carly2] 14/2/2008 07:17

Hey, Hey, good news at last - well done Intercede!
Best wishes all

[wjccghcc] 11/2/2008 14:08

Yup. From the annual report:

"Subject to the conversion of all existing convertible loan stock, warrants and share options, and having regard to the placing outlined in note 16, the
maximum potential fully diluted share capital is 48,735,009 ordinary shares of 1p each."

[jailbird] 11/2/2008 13:34

WJ,

is that 12M mkt cap at current price incl the loan notes which are due in 2009?

which were renegiated a couple of years back..albeit at a lower conversion price?