Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 23/5/2018 11:49

EAN, half owned with Deutsch Telecom... They could snap this lot up easily.

[seball] 23/5/2018 10:59

European Aviation Network (EAN)is a purpose-built system for in-flight communications.Uptake of this service is ahead of projections. Looking to get EAN up and running in June. Should be very lucrative going forward. Good luck all.

[the original goldbug] 23/5/2018 10:42

Chancer, I wouldn’t hold your breath on ‘secret government contracts’.

Incidentally what is EAN?

[steeplejack] 23/5/2018 10:09

So the UK Government nurtures a business over many years and then floats the company at around the 275p level.Senior management make a killing on the floatation.The shares climb to over ten pounds but subsequently plummet on a variety of concerns.Management exacerbate their unpopularity by trying to pass remuneration resolutions that are voted down.The senior management are advised to go private disenfranchising their irritated institutional shareholders.I don't think that's going to happen in a month of Sundays.If an entrepreneur ( like an Alan Sugar who built up Amstrad)took a company private,fair enough.However,in a sense, a number of senior management here have been fortunate enough to be in situ when a quasi government body has been floated on the exchange and they have done a fairly mediocre job running the company since.They'll be no privatisation here.

[chancer] 23/5/2018 10:08

The key words that are being used in the "know" do not favour Inmarsat hence the current high levels of continued short positions.

No matter what is being said, it boils down to the readers digest version as follows:

Struggling, loss of monopoly, 10 year low, complacent, old technology, high debt, overtaken by newer rivals, takeover rumours (but no offers) and Ligado future.

These are not my words and although it is easy to cut and run at a loss, surely EAN could be a future positive and maybe more secretive Government contracts in the waiting.

Who knows ?

[seball] 23/5/2018 08:38

The below is from Jan 2018.
Inmarsat share price was 528p.
Private equity funds must certainly have Inmarsat in their sights now. Just a matter of time before an offer comes imo

RBC refreshed its longstanding theory that Inmarsat is a bid target with an argument that private equity funds could be interested.

“Now could be the perfect time to take Inmarsat private,” the broker told clients. “Our leveraged buyout model suggests an internal rate of return of around 60 per cent on undemanding assumptions.”


The buyout makes sense now because Inmarsat’s enterprise value is near a 10-year low versus earnings, which reflect an estimated $70m of start-up losses at its in-flight broadband business that will swing into a $44m profit after five years, so the exit should be highly profitable, RBC argued.

Its team also highlighted a long history of private equity involvement in the satellite industry, whose high barriers to entry and strong cash generation appeals to buyout funds, as well as recent share purchases by Inmarsat management.

RBC last year championed the idea that Inmarsat would be a good fit for Dish Network, the US pay-TV broadcaster, or its sister company EchoStar. The shares, which are down 25 per cent over the past 12 months, bounced 4.9 per cent to 528.8p.

[steeplejack] 23/5/2018 07:54

Telegraph article today.Fairly damning.It concludes"Ultimately operators like Inmarsat may be picked up by international telecoms operators. There could be a long way to fall first."

[seball] 22/5/2018 22:15

Inmarsat (LON:ISAT)‘s stock had its “outperform221; rating reissued by analysts at Royal Bank of Canada in a research note issued to investors on Tuesday. They presently have a GBX 725 ($9.73) price objective on the stock. Royal Bank of Canada’s target price would indicate a potential upside of 100.78% from the stock’s current price.

[zcaprd7] 22/5/2018 15:25

I like how they congratulate Iridium in the press release!

[wskill] 22/5/2018 14:45

seball falling on deaf ears I am afraid this new service from ISAT will remove the need for a bank of screens and receivers + transmitters from ships ,all they will need is a self contained unit from Inmarsat this is a game changer but only for us who use the kit every day isat have the best kit available on the market today and it just got even better .

[zcaprd7] 22/5/2018 14:23

Debt 2.5bn... Net assets 5nb

[the original goldbug] 22/5/2018 12:37

What about the debt Zpcaprd!?

What’s the asset value then????

The only barrier to entry in this business is capital and duration of leases/contracts (which people are reluctant to talk about)

[seball] 22/5/2018 12:03

Latest RNS
'Inmarsat receives IMO approval to deliver most significant advance in maritime safety in a generation'

These are to cheap at this level and are prime for a takeover offer imo

[zcaprd7] 22/5/2018 11:17

It's becoming an asset play now:Satellites: 3x Inmarsat 4x getting near end of life, 1x Alphasat, 4x Global Express3 or 4 ground stations1x S-band satellitePlus 50% of the S-band ground network, which might be worth 3bn on its own.Versus market cap: £1.6bnLet alone all the spectrum (ligado might yet come good) staff and recruitment costs, for a Elon Musk say....

[zcaprd7] 22/5/2018 10:19

No one was praising the monopoly before hand? A duopoly won't impact things much... All the sailors carry an Iridium phone as back up anyway.By 2020 it will be a tiny part of the revenue, shame to see a cash cow go, but it's not really a big issue.

[fenners66] 22/5/2018 10:14

g2theary
22 May '18 - 09:28 - 3361 of 3364

I doubled down at 8:10 so not far from even again now... clearly an over reaction...

I guess you did not take that opportunity to bank a profit on those ...
so even weaker than 8.10?

[zcaprd7] 22/5/2018 09:17

£3 is my top up target, if we get there...

[rcturner2] 22/5/2018 08:57

I would buy back in at 250p.

[steeplejack] 22/5/2018 08:46

Overreaction?Maritime was 40% of first quarter revenue.

[g2theary] 22/5/2018 08:28

I doubled down at 8:10 so not far from even again now... clearly an over reaction...

[chancer] 22/5/2018 08:20

A lot of automatic stop /losses would have been triggered hence the fulfilling prophecy.

Iridium shares have not moved on the news but still showing just under $12 a share.

I would like to see the dust settle before considering the future of Inmarsat.

[steeplejack] 22/5/2018 08:07

Looks like the market has taken the opportunity to put the boot in.Sentiment is fragile and with good cause.Shipping,a tough market,is about to get competitively tougher post 2020 while there remain concerns that the capital outlays to rule the skies will deliver an inadequate return.Again,I’;m rather sceptical about the managements ability to manage expectations.Full steam ahead with dividend increases and then a sudden draconian cut comes out of the clouds.This Iridium business doesn’t appear to have been adequately ‘aired’ in public.The company continues to underwhelm.Its not well run and that’s the last thing you want to hold at the end of a bull run with markets flirting with a correction.Most holders here were initially attracted by the yield.Currently you can buy BATs on a yield of 5.8% generating strong cash flow.

[the original goldbug] 22/5/2018 08:05

But the point is the margins will inevitably decline (considerably) over time.