Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[aleman] 08/6/2018 20:26

IMASF are up 44%. IMASY are up 16%. I don't know what they represent. Both have risen a bit more since the UK close.

[steeplejack] 08/6/2018 20:11

Yes thanks Aleman,EchoStar have a war chest.Given the cash, the PE looks reasonable.

[tonysss13] 08/6/2018 19:51

I assume this is the US listing? currently up 38%?




edit actually might be these up 21%

I make that about 496 assuming it's a 1 for 1 ratio

[wad collector] 08/6/2018 19:46

Significantly less than my average buying price :-)

[the original goldbug] 08/6/2018 19:21

So let’s play where will the share price open and close on Monday?

Who’s going to start!?

[the original goldbug] 08/6/2018 19:03

Thanks Aleman that explains the high PE of SATS and why the share price hasn’t moved today.

[aleman] 08/6/2018 18:55

Echostar seem to have £2.5bn in cash and marketable securities. Underlying Q1 EBITDA was $202m after adding back losses on investments



Flush with cash, EchoStar is viewed as a company with the financial muscle to create consolidation in the satellite communications sector, but whether EchoStar can negotiate agreeable terms is debatable.

“This is the fundamental problem and the reason why EchoStar is sitting on $3.3 billion in cash,” Chris Quilty of Quilty Analytics, told SpaceNews. “Although they are well funded to pursue acquisitions, they historically have been fairly cheap in what they’ve been willing to pay.”

[clem] 08/6/2018 18:35

Folks I don't comment much on shares, outside my paid blogs, but I hold this one recently, so am moved to comment. From a technical view the down trend is over. Ergo its now going to go up. This 'bid' simply underlines the bottom is reached as far a M&A valuation is concerned, which is after all a bottom fishing valuation. The company is now in play and all the positive things that go with it, bids, counterbids, management pressure to perform etc, will support the price.
It is highly likely the share price will now rise, perhaps over the long term. Trend reversal is is how value investors make their corn.

[the original goldbug] 08/6/2018 18:22

This will obviously be a share bid as Echostar doesn’t have the cash.

The fact that ‘SATS’ share price hasn’t moved suggests the market doesn’t think a bid is coming.

As this will be a paper deal ISAT does look very undervalued compared to SATS so management will be right to force SATS to pay a premium.

It’s clearly massively earnings accretive for SATS.

SATS need to come up with a bid where ISAT Managment can endorse the bid and then let the market and arbs have their say in pricing this thing going forward.

The most frustrating thing is that this will drift if nothing concrete happens. (Yes I’m a stale bull and would love to get out of this thing with my pride and wallet intact too haha!!)

Anyone done any sensible analysis on SATS would be nice to hear your thoughts.

[wskill] 08/6/2018 18:15

The reason for the fall from £10 was a perceived fall in maritime leadership with the new offering replacing gmdss units this will not be the case growth will increase in maritime the reason for market leadership is the technology is superior than other offerings .

Why accept a low ball offer below this when by 2020 most required investment for aviation completes.

[kamitora] 08/6/2018 17:48

"If it is to stave off EchoStar’s interest, Inmarsat’s management – led by chief executive Rupert Pearce – will be reliant on the support of major shareholders, with whom it has been at loggerheads over pay. A revolt from more than 60% of voting investors earlier this year forced Inmarsat to rip up its pay proposals, continuing a long-running dispute that had broken out into rebellion three times in the past six years."

[steeplejack] 08/6/2018 17:29

Yes I think you may be right with the numbers,a bid of around 550p as a sighting shot sounds likely.I reckon that a bid of £7 might win the day.Forget the heady days of ten pounds plus.£7 would represent a premium of around two thirds to an admittedly depressed recent share price.This isn't a management that can aggressively plead a case of obvious competence.Presuming that this share was previously an income fund favourite,it might find itself fairly friendless in fighting off a bid of around 7 quid.

[the original goldbug] 08/6/2018 17:08

Management’s reaction to the Echostar bid sounds like a face saving exercise.

They have to bluff a bid for in excess of £7 to walk away from this with their dignity more or less in tact.

I suspect the bid was at £5.5-5.7 or thereabouts. On the positive it puts this in play again and probably puts a new floor at £4.

Quite high risk for the arbs considering what the London institutions think of the fundamentals.

[steeplejack] 08/6/2018 17:04

EchoStar,valued at around £3.5bn,has been a dull performer of late and the price at $47 is about the same as a couple of years ago,albeit that it has been up as high as $60 during that period.The prospective PE is over 50 and 5 year eps growth is only forecast at 5%.Charles Schwab has the stock as a strong buy but I can't quite see why.Perhaps they think someone might bid for EchoStar!In the context of the US,EchoStar is in the small asset class.There must be a case for examining the synergistic benefits of merging two relatively small players in a rapidly changing tech world.Echostar doesn't pay a dividend.I think Inmarsat days are numbered but I'm not convinced EchoStar is going to win the day,I'm not sure they have the financial clout. Hopefully,this will flush out a heavyweight bidder.

[18bt] 08/6/2018 16:51

K - why on earth would you want to state a price, which is then somehting others can aim at. Far better to have different bidders with none of them knowing what the other has offered.

[kamitora] 08/6/2018 16:37

The FT have of course been talking about potential bidders (plural) for some time, so the board can also somewhat redeem the performance of the last two years by getting an auction going if possible. This was from FT Alphaville today:

"We flagged up vague talk around Inmarsat this time last month, and repeatedly before that. EchoStar and Softbank/OneWeb are the obvious candidates."



This is the sticking point with EchoStar:

"Inmarsat shares climbed 13.5 per cent on Friday in London, giving it a market value of £2.15bn. Including the company’s more than £1.7bn of debt, a deal could give Inmarsat an enterprise value above £4bn.

EchoStar has a market value of $4.5bn, with its shares falling 0.6 per cent in New York."



Not that closely aligned market caps stopped Takeda with Shire recently.

[kamitora] 08/6/2018 16:33

It's 'come back with a significantly better offer' in my opinion. The board are talking their book as they have to on the first pass, but would probably have half an eye on what their prospects are if a takeover goes ahead anyway and if they've been overly hostile. They also have to be realistic about their prospects if Echostar walk away - institutional shareholders and hedge funds who jump in may take out their frustrations on them.

One interesting thing I noted from the RNS is the lack of a price - which makes me suspect it actually is one that shareholders might seriously consider. If it really is a lowball offer as they claim, prove it to us. What do they have to hide?

[zcaprd7] 08/6/2018 16:07

So is this f off, or f off and come back with some lube?

[wskill] 08/6/2018 15:54

Think of the poor shorts bashing the share price down to facilitate a cheap take out price.
Takeover should at the very least be above £10.

[edwardt] 08/6/2018 15:47

just shows how bent the city is. where is the fca catching those that traded when inside??

[dexdringle] 08/6/2018 15:46

....the board might have a little difficulty explaining the rise in the share price between 11:00 and the announcement of the bid approach at 16:34......

[kamitora] 08/6/2018 15:36

That was one hell of an auction - added 10 pence.

[g2theary] 08/6/2018 14:53

Short squeeze!