Inmarsat Share Discussion Threads

[steeplejack] 13/3/2018 18:02

Letting Cadburys go was one thing but ISAT handles government contracts which could well preclude a foreign takeover.Perhaps a domestic might make an approach but isn't ISAT pretty unique in its area of operation in the UK,where would be the synergistic benefits to a another UK company.For sure,I think this company needs new management.The stock has more than halved in less than a year.The prospectus back in June 2005 had an indicative price range for launch of 215p to 245p.I don't recall the price when trading began on 22 June but I think it must have been pushing on for three quid.What goes around comes around,

[dexdringle] 13/3/2018 16:58

Wasn't there some takeover talk here a while ago ?

If someone was interested at £8 they must be thinking they can now have it half price ??

[badger60] 13/3/2018 16:47

It's a shame that they bought them yesterday.........

[youthstockperspective] 13/3/2018 14:13

Incredibly interesting perspectives that are worth reading:youthstockperspective.com

[badger60] 13/3/2018 14:12

zcaprd7Let's put it this way......having initially bought Avanti shares at 7.6p, sold few at 14p, and recently added more at 12p....I feel far more comfortable than if I were to buy ISAT @ 383pps..........

[bluemango] 13/3/2018 14:11

Meanwhile, a director buy.

Abraham Peled, non exec, buys 9650 shares, £40k worth.

[rcturner2] 13/3/2018 14:04

Often shorters seem to be ahead of the game, seen it so many times. They are not always right, but they got this one right.

[dexdringle] 13/3/2018 13:54

It is almost like someone knows something (and I mean "knows" as opposed to "has worked out")...........

[badger60] 13/3/2018 13:52

With a mkt cap still well in excess of£1.5bn, this has got a lot further to fall, imo.

[badger60] 13/3/2018 11:49

It'll be interesting to see where the next tranche of broker estimates are priced.........

[1fox1] 13/3/2018 11:44

Bought into these at 470p.... Had a rethink and sold on one of the bounces at 460p. Not often I do anything right.

[the original goldbug] 13/3/2018 11:35

Because of an expectation of growth and high returns on capital.

Two years down the road we have the sober reality of the situation, with a management who appear out of their depth.

[wallywoo] 13/3/2018 11:32

Dex: I always find that the share price action let's you know that trouble is coming before you know about the trouble.

£4 was the resistance point (resistance formed in 2012), so ISAT is now hitting new long term lows. IMO be wary here, unless you see a strong bounce and soon.

[dexdringle] 13/3/2018 11:28

...but what, specifically, has changed over two years such that nearly two thirds of the market cap value has evaporated ?

People were happily paying £10 a share two years ago. Why ?

[dexdringle] 13/3/2018 10:41

This is getting ridiculous now. These were over £10 each just two years ago.....

[zcaprd7] 13/3/2018 10:21

Badger, no one wants any of Avanti bandwidth though? Look at their own figures for % satellite capacity usage, they can't sell what they have, and launching another one is just more capacity they won't be able to sell, no?

[aleman] 13/3/2018 10:00

Payments are still planned but Ligado's access to bandwith that supports those payments is in question. If Ligado are granted the bandwidth they need, ISAT will get payments that will add onto the numbers given in recently updated guidance. It's down to US regulators. If the bandwidth is not granted to Ligado, the new updated guidance still stands and it should cover updated capex and dividends.

[fenners66] 13/3/2018 09:52

I read the results briefly the other day , read the divi cut and more or less lost interest ; so apologies in advance for the rest of this not being properly researched ; but the Ligado reporting I find very disconcerting.

They started reporting figures without Ligado a while back but always saying that there would be a loan arrangement in place and payment terms agreed. Now those payments are not going to happen as planned.

Seems they were not entirely up front with the shareholders over the real risks associated - originally.

I cannot have any faith in the management here now until the whole situation is properly resolved.

[aleman] 13/3/2018 09:50

Ligado is not included in guidance!



We are targeting mid-single digit percentage revenue growth (excluding Ligado) on average over the next five years, with EBITDA and free cash flow generation (both excluding Ligado) expected to improve steadily as a result of the combined impact of this growing revenue base, an improved revenue mix, tightly managed overhead costs and new, lower cost, satellite technologies being implemented that we expect to drive a meaningful moderation in our annual infrastructure capex over the medium term.

[steeplejack] 13/3/2018 09:35

Chancer makes some good points.I hoped that things might steady but the dividend is now of very limited support.A 20 cent dividend would would only provide a yield of around 4.8 percent (not dissimilar to Billiton) at around 300p.

The company has bizarrely gone from markedly overpaying on the dividend front to arguably underpaying such that it raises real questions about the company cash flow projections.The whole thing has a smell of panic if not incompetence when it comes to appreciating the likely market response.(At first glance at the recent results,I thought the company had cut the final dividend to 20 cents not the full year payout.What storms do they see ahead the market might begin to ask.)

[badger60] 13/3/2018 09:29

Avanti is a far better takeover target. Once the new Hylas4 satellite is in orbit and the debt for equity is swapped next month, the all-in outstanding equity and debt will be circa £550mio.......for a revamped company that has in excess of $1.2bn of hardware circling the earth...

......which makes ISAT's debt pile and market cap look outrageously expensive......

[rcturner2] 13/3/2018 09:00

fraz, I would like to see the next set of quarterly numbers before taking any decision.

However the much lower dividend tends to put me off completely. I can hold other much safer stocks that pay 5 or 6%.