Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[leeson31] 19/12/2016 12:22

lancaster EPS: 20k bopd: revenues:

spot ~$54/b, 20k bopd * ~330 'up' days in year allowing for maintenance: ~$356.4m/annum.

opex/b for north sea oilers (using ENQ as example) ~$28/b, so netabcks would be ~$26/b

$26/b * 20k bopd * 330 up days = net income /annum ~$171.6m or ~£138.4m net income per annum.

something to consider, for when or if,they flog the GLA, as it'll have a nice little earner attached to it, so HUR could ask for ~10 x earnings on that well production along with a $/b valuation for the reserves....

:-)

this is ridiculously undervalued, and still very early stage too.

imo, we'll seee at least one or two II's take a 3pc or more stake, we havent seen that yet other than the original backers continuing to hold ( and of course the blue chip investors and CA and kerogen in the recent 34p palcing), but we havent seen open market stake buying, yet.... 'thats' what will whoosh it to a quid imo....

again, early stage even at 48p !

cheers

[leeson31] 19/12/2016 12:09

current mcap ~£384m/~$724m at 48.5p

lancaster: MINIMUM base case 333mmbo
lincoln: MIN 250mmbo

halifax: lets say a meagre 150mmbo

total: 733mmbo

when it was just lancaster, i think a fair conservative valuation per barrel would be to use $2.50/b, but once you derisk the 'ridge' or GLA or asset by asset drilling, you can use a derisking $/b variant. I'll use a meagre ~$4/b per asset per MIN base case totalling 733mmbo, being ~$2.9billion/~£;2.3billion or ~192p/share valuation...

remember: MIN base case..

once the CPR is produced, i think you'll find the 2P's per asset will be more like:

lancaster 2P ~500mmbo
lincoln 2P ~400mmbo
halifax 2P ~250mmbo

totals: 1.15billion barrel. 2P's per barrel valuation then easily (lets be conservative) lets say ~$5/b, thats ~$5.5b/~£4.4b or 377p/share.....

all to play for in the coming due course :-)

[hopeful holder] 19/12/2016 12:00

I'm getting too excited for my age. This is a game changer for me in terms of life plans. First oil planned for 1Q2019 just can't come quick enough.

[gary38] 19/12/2016 11:52

I have not been so excited over a Share since LGO when they were drilling 33 holes in Trinidad 2014.

[leeson31] 19/12/2016 11:50

full value telbap maybe yr ++, but id like to see a stab at a quid reasonably soon..... halifax derisking spud next week... cpr jan +.. data room opening next week i think.... cheers

[cashandcard] 19/12/2016 11:48

Buffy,I have had a couple of important questions in relation to results and potential resources here. But it's becoming clearer with each well and presentations the company is putting out.The 333 & 250 million Lancaster and Lincoln estimates are based on an outdated CPR which did not take into account some of the new findings. Halifax and warwick did not even figure in that of course.I really think both will grow to a greater resource number than we have now, thus shares at 48-50p are undervalued. The CPR will shine light on that.I'm not invested in SOU but I do like the story. Whilst they do have large resource, I don't think they have full 100% control like Hurricane (believe I read 27% or maybe higher). Also, in an exit scenario, I think there will be more takers for Hurricanes oilfields than large gas fields in Morocco, it's really Shell and a few others who would be interested in that.Just my thoughts.Cash

[telbap] 19/12/2016 11:41

Lesson......what's your thoughts on time frame here?

[jacks13] 19/12/2016 11:38

buffy - warrants:

[gary38] 19/12/2016 11:34

At £2 a Share l could pay of my mortgage and still have over 100k to play the markets.

[buffythebuffoon] 19/12/2016 11:15

Thanks Leeson. £2 a share is approx £2.4bn (haven't checked for warrants etc)

I'd buy 2bn barrels recoverable for that....

Buffy

[leeson31] 19/12/2016 11:10

buffy, imo, HUR will drill halifax, hopefully get same lincoln success, thus the GLA area be derisked, then get the EPS running, then flog the GLA..... possibly return some cash to holders by special divi, whilst retaining some cash to progress with typhoon, whirlwind and strathmore, and any other out of round permist they may acquire.... rinse and repeat, essentially.... i think the GLA (lancaster, lincoln and halifax will easily have ~2b barrels, prob BP buy it, given its so close to the clair permit also on the rona ridge) all imo... bottom line, i think share price can easily get towards 200p/sh

[buffythebuffoon] 19/12/2016 11:03

We have that wonderful combination of an increase in the areal extent and the depth of the oil column.

I don't think I've ever been so excited about the prospects for two of my holdings at the same time. Which gets taken out first is the big question. Both (HUR and SOU) are trying to prove up as much as possible and ensure they are in a position to produce initially if required. SOU has more options, and can just sell Tendrara, while I assume HUR will either sell the whole company, or farmout the majority and retain an interest.

Thoughts?

Buffy

[kirtonender9] 19/12/2016 10:50

Added another 5000. May well cut my losses on CHAR. HUR has far better growth prospects

[laserdisc] 19/12/2016 10:49

Johan Sverdrup

[cashandcard] 19/12/2016 10:45

Idleduck, Agreed - Johan Sverdrup started as off as a couple of significant discoveries, a few hundred million barrels. It was the third well that really made the breakthrough that it was a giant connected field of 1.8 - 3.0 billion barrels of oil.We are halfway there in my opinion. Halifax is the well that has the potential to send this over the top.Without getting carried away, I'm quite amazed this is not getting more coverage in national press.Cash

[leeson31] 19/12/2016 10:42

peak high this week imo, ~65p :-) the news is only sub4hrs old.... this is not only good news in itself, but further derisks the GLA..... i think halifax spud wil bring in more buyers and not just traders because its becoming more of a derisking project than a per well basis...... hats off to the Doctor... #intricewetrust :-)

[rutter] 19/12/2016 10:26

I was buying some of these from 35 to 53 pre Lancaster. Should be way ahead of this price now IMO

[nicebut] 19/12/2016 10:12

K,

As leeson said earlier- some good volume picking up now- someone buying hopefully, which will move the share price up.

[gregpeck7] 19/12/2016 10:01

They must be looking now.. even if Halifax were to fail I see 50p as a floor here maybe even higher.. if Halifax comes in this is 100p plus... Takeout now would be 90 to 100p per share imo which could look very very cheap

[mirabeau] 19/12/2016 10:00

This company is derisking before our very eyes with the drill-bit..

a safe political jurisdiction and a prime takeover target now

the majors will be sniffing around in 2017 if not now

[someuwin] 19/12/2016 09:59

Hurricane Energy shares storm higher as Lincoln discovery could be larger than first thought

09:40 19 Dec 2016

Pre-drill estimates for Lincoln suggested it was host to 250mln ‘recoverable’ barrels of crude. Hurricane says, after early analysis, that figure looks conservative...