Hurricane Energy Share Discussion Threads

[davidblack] 28/12/2016 14:33

I think that what Trice said when the stock was 15p and what he might be saying today at 50p may be markedly different.

Once this stock gets to north of £1 that "What is corporately possible" will change once again.

Our best protection against BP or Shell is that by the time they decide to act the landscape is highly likely to be very different.

Majors are very slow unless they are chasing semi majors like BG.

DB

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 14:33

Peter,I stated a few days ago, if 150p was put on the table tomorrow and we had no further activity planned nearterm, I'll take it. It's good value and a decent premium for our commanding assetbase in this play. The scale is huge.Problem is - we have Halifax spudding shortly. Given our current all round strong position in terms of resources and internal reserve case, management enhancing our assetbase and value, Halifax may add substantially to that figure. As I said, I've taken a leap of faith in HUR management team and consider a couple of months easily acceptable to see the outcome of Halifax before a make any further decisions. I guess until then, an offer above the current shareprice, whether it's 70, 80, 90p cannot be described as derisory. Markets do generally get it right, but I am of the opinion they don't understand this play well enough yet.Cash

[extrader] 28/12/2016 13:59

Hi cash,

The CPR will make things clearly. (sic)

I - like you - hope so. But the CPR is likely to be conservative, too, if it is to have any credibility.

Do we know yet who'll be doing it ? If it's RPS again, it'll be interesting to see how much their position has changed since Q4 2013.

Gettng the reserves auditors to any large proven number in an unconventional play will surely need proof via field production, not just a well test ?

Whoever its that does the CPR, it would at least be helpful to include a "chance of development" rating to some of the contingent resources.

If Trice is primarily ( personally and professionally) interested in the 'journey' and his financial backers are interested in (monetary) 'arrival', I'd see it as likely that we face early and 'disappointing to some' take-out in H1 2017, with the money-seekers moving on to their next target and Trice heading up Son of Hur (Ben ?).

A bird in the hand, etc.

ATB

[greyingsurfer] 28/12/2016 13:48

I have to disagree, the internal case for Lancaster and Lincoln as they stand now (almost 600mln barrels management case) is undervalued.

You think it's undervalued, I think it might well prove to be the case after the EPS, which is presumably why we are invested. The market clearly doesn't agree with either view.

In that context you cannot describe an offer of 110% above the current as "derisory". You would presumably refuse. I might, but at the end of the day what we do has no impact on whether such an offer would be accepted.

Peter

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 13:39

Peter,I have to disagree, the internal case for Lancaster and Lincoln as they stand now (almost 600mln barrels management case) is undervalued. I've taken a leap of faith, and am sticking to managements numbers as I consider them to be conservative, that could well be an understatement. The CPR will make things clearly.The figure you're quoting is almost the same as Edison's renav issued after Lincoln results.Cash

[laserdisc] 28/12/2016 13:35

market still not reflected correct valuation for Lincoln result we should be at least 55p today, one good thing it appears our seller is not loading the offer

[greyingsurfer] 28/12/2016 13:26

Btw, that's a derisory offer given what we know.

Given that the market knows what we know and currently values HUR at 50p a 105p offer cannot be described as derisory.

Whether it would succeed would depend on what majority shareholders think - the view on ADVFN would be irrelevant to the outcome.

Peter

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 13:23

Both are clearly important reasons. The uptake of 55mln bbls of EPS production tied to the fact BP have been in this WoS play for a longtime. There public statements, capital investment in the area and forward commitments as operator are huge. Let's not forget, BP have just upped their stakes along the Rona-Ridge with the farmin to Nexens Craster license, immediately northeast of Hurricanes Halifax license.I would suggest any of the other Clair partners, (Shell Chevron Conoco) would fit the bill and we would do well to get a tier 1 partner of that size.Cash

[laserdisc] 28/12/2016 13:22

gregpeck 7 I would think your thoughts are correct re Halifax test

[gregpeck7] 28/12/2016 13:19

Bp have publicly stated they in the market again for assets, shell are still swallowing bg..

[bones] 28/12/2016 13:14

oilretire, to be honest, I am never quite sure whether it is in BP's interest for that deadline to be met or not :)

[oilretire] 28/12/2016 13:04

Yeah, cheers, I remember that, but no one really mentions that, it's nearly always because BP 'owns' Clair, which of course the don't entirely.....

[bones] 28/12/2016 12:49

oilretire, the reason BP are often linked is because of the existing contractual links between HUR and BP, namely that BP are contracted to buy up to 55M barrels if HUR produce oil before April 2020 (in very basic terms). See p265/266 of the AIM admission document:

[oilretire] 28/12/2016 12:44

Well I can't find post 13467??Always makes me chuckle when BP gets mentioned as the default buyer just because of Clair....Shell owns just as much Clair equity up there & over at quad 204.Maybe Shell if they 'imminently' sell a large packet of NS assets as currently being reported every week or two? Politically it would make sense to counter negative headlines accusing them of pulling out of NS.....which of course they're not.Could be Total who have already down sized their stake in their major WoS asset....Could be any of the above & number of others....Personally IMHO, unless anyone goes hostile there won't be a take over until after the EPS is months/years down the line.Some sort of farm out, yes, but not an agreed take out at this early stage.

[gary38] 28/12/2016 12:23

- Temporarily suspended farmout discussions in June 2016 until completion of the Lancaster 7 Wells and subsequent analysis - expect to re-open data room by end of year.Hopefully that will happen in the next 3 days if so probably let us know next week.

[bloodhound] 28/12/2016 11:33

"I am confident the number will be over 1billion."

Me too:-)

BH

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 11:33

Bloodhound,Yes, found it after updating ...Cash

[gary38] 28/12/2016 11:32

Sounds good to me Cash

[mrx001] 28/12/2016 11:32

For each of us!! lol

[cashandcard] 28/12/2016 11:28

Bloodhound,I am confident the number will be over 1billion.Cash

[bloodhound] 28/12/2016 11:26

Cash - The post is still there: 13467 I think this is the one you're referring too.

BH

[zztop] 28/12/2016 11:24

Maybe that's why it was removed.. In discuss?