Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[mad foetus] 03/7/2018 07:41

I wonder how any increase in turnover relates to profits. Presumably, other than the royalty payment, costs are fixed and so every sale drops straight to the bottom line?

[makw61] 03/7/2018 07:39

Not often you see a positive TU after only one month of the FY, absolutely terrific. Wonder if the shorters will cover now?

Like the bit about continuing "to explore other models to accelerate our scale-up", shows the ambition is there to be a really significant player.

[rivaldo] 03/7/2018 07:22

Terrific news. That's all we could ask for at this early stage - and gives room for FDEV to issue further forecast-beating updates as the period progresses.

And FDEV are keeping their ammo nicely dry, with hints about the "future franchises" and more news to come:

"I look forward to providing updates on our future plans in due course."

[square1] 03/7/2018 07:20

TU leaves plenty of room to upgrade to trading ahead of expectations, particularly as they are only one month into financial tear.

[hastings] 03/7/2018 07:16

Echo the comments on research from posters here top notch, as with the TU which puts FDEV in a great place.

[panic investor] 03/7/2018 07:16

Not just one future franchise then ......We already have future franchises in different phases of internal development

[shanklin] 03/7/2018 07:10

Yep, glad that having sold out completely, I changed my mind based mainly on posts here and now have a position 36% larger than when i sold out. Thank you all.

[allstar4eva] 03/7/2018 07:07

Trading update! Confirms sales expectations expressed on this bb. Great research guys.

[endion] 03/7/2018 00:23

Planet Coaster back to no.12 on UK Steam Bestsellers.

[endion] 02/7/2018 17:49

Also, it seems that games in the sim/management genre, for some reason, have a higher twitch follower to unit sales ratio.

Cities Skylines: x20.5

Stellaris: x19.98

Civ 6: x16.82

Civ 5: x62.25

Rome 2 Total War: x69.55

As opposed to FPS or similar like Farcry and action games. Another example:

Call of Duty WW2: x1.68

Good to bounce numbers off each other though!

[mark4231] 02/7/2018 17:16

That's very true about Planet Coaster having the beta phase - good news for JWE sales then, the above estimate is likely to pessimistic.

Will be interesting to see how JWE does when the Steam sale ends.

Oops, sorry nimbo - will go back and edit my previous post to remove misleading comparison.

[nimbo1] 02/7/2018 17:14

My estimate is for already sold across all 3 platforms.

I also think jwe is highly priced for steam buyers - they are used to paying less, Or want to pay less in an ideal world as there are many quality titles for 30 Ish. Upside to this is when jwe goes 25 percent off for the first time, probably before first paid for dlc comes along a second wave of buyers will come in.

Price point isn’t such a problem for console buyers as they mostly pay 50 plus.

[endion] 02/7/2018 17:13

I'd probably take into account that many people had been playing planet coaster for months before official release. And so you would have seen much higher review numbers comparatively for the early weeks. More people would have been ready to review it earlier, compared to JWE where people are still playing through the game.

[mark4231] 02/7/2018 17:10

I did a quick calculation earlier with my number of Steam reviews compared to Planet Coaster theory. Roughly 7300 JWE reviews in first 3 weeks. Roughly 5720 Planet Coaster reviews in first 3 weeks. Planet Coaster sold around 1.4 million in first 14 months. With those figures I estimate 1.78 million JWE sales in first 14 months. Scale down to 12 months gives 1.52 million JWE sales in first 12 months for PC only. Console sales are all extra on top of that - choose your console to PC multiple!

I think we just have to be patient and wait for a trading update and then I'm sure we'll see a good rise in the share price, on the back of that, if our sales estimates are in the right ball park.

[gameinvestor] 02/7/2018 17:08

Still very good sales during the whole steam summer sale 😀

[nimbo1] 02/7/2018 16:58

What we saw today was encouraging - lots of buying demand, even though it slipped from the highs. As Sogo mentioned we have to go through another period of consolidation while we wait to hear from FDEV.

Ive got another 'remains to be seen how accurate' method to speculate on sales, using twitch viewers to sales multiples which seems to generate a remarkably dependable ratio.

God of War - 700,000 followers. Sales c.5 mil + = 7.14 multiple
Planet Coaster - 131,265 followers. Sales. c.1.5 million = 11.42 multiple
Farcry 5 - 940,000 followers. Sales c.7 million + =7.44 multiple
Conan Exiles - 200,000 followers. Sales c.1.5 million = 7.5 multiple

So seems a minimum 7x multiple should be used.

JWE = 217,614 followers = Sales of 1.5 million.

[endion] 02/7/2018 16:53

I'd hazard a guess that a few big buy orders will go through post hours, as these can't be effected by our seller.

[endion] 02/7/2018 16:38

It's a good strategy to make it look like to share price is going nowhere far. For example, if you said that the 24 hour period where the share price was logged for the day was around 11am, the share price would look like it was rising in quite a healthy way, with dips during the day before a rise back up to close. Instead what we see, and what the seller is trying to manipulate for psychological reasons, is a rise in the day and a fall towards the end, thus having the marked share price going from low to low, rather than high to high.

Having people think the share price is going down, up, down is better if you want to keep it low, than if people think it goes up, down, up. In reality it's the same thing. But psychology plays heavily on stocks and traders know this.

[mark4231] 02/7/2018 16:32

Strange. Annoying. Frustrating. Confusing.

At least we're up a little bit today though!

Also it sounds like there is one person/organisation selling but plenty of buyers to mop it up?

[endion] 02/7/2018 14:31

Entire stack was undercut and sold to again despite no sell pressure. Fairly convinced someone is trying to supress this share price now.

20 trades at the bid were pushed through simultainiously despite very, very little selling pressure on the order book. Look at the trades from 14.12 onwards to see what i mean.

Keeping an eye out to see if it happens again as the bids are stacking once more. 24 vs 2.

Yep, happened again. 21 near simultainious trades at the bid price. Lowered share price back to 14 from 14.05 again.

And again! The undercutter strikes! They are seriously commited to lowering the share price for close.

[endion] 02/7/2018 12:21

Updated chart positions, video on suspected DLC content for JWE, Elite Dangerous Battlecards info posted to website.

Hopefully won't bite my tongue after this but seeing very strong support for 14.00 at the moment. Bid stack 17, Ask 3.

Now 22 vs 1. Total stack of 2,296 vs 151.

[alphabeta4] 02/7/2018 11:12

Not convinced how accurate some of these are but a useful link IMO nonetheless

[endion] 02/7/2018 10:07

Interesting to hear your thoughts! We shall see how the day progresses.

[endion] 02/7/2018 09:41

Lets hope the short closes now too. Would be best time to do it. They'll have to do it in tranches though so keep a eye out for regular big buys.