Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[endion] 02/7/2018 09:39

Share price is rising again now. Bounced off the previous resistance line.

[villarich] 02/7/2018 09:38

And we're off!

[mad foetus] 02/7/2018 08:53

Haggis Hunter, good correction. Starts shipping tomorrow.

[square1] 02/7/2018 08:16

Discs still around 50% of the market so not insignificant

[haggishunter] 02/7/2018 08:13

I think it is Sold Out software who put it on disc.

[square1] 02/7/2018 08:05

JWE sold out on Amazon.com on PS4 and Xbox

[nimbo1] 01/7/2018 17:49

It’s nice to be at c.500,000 steam Sales’s. I’ll be very interested to see the ratio of steam to PlayStation / Xbox sales for jwe.

Looking at popular titles whether it’s gta, doom, farcry 5 - they have all sold between 5-10x plus on console as they have on steam. I’d be happy for 3x for jwe - it’s where my reasoning for my personal target of 1.5 million + for end of July comes from. Look forward to hearing an update whether I’m in the right ballpark or not.

[endion] 01/7/2018 12:17

They will recieve a commision of sales from the product, much like universal do for JWE. What that percentage will be though we will have to wait to be told, if they release that info at all.

Interesting to know that nimbo. I was unaware of the digital to physical ratio for ps4. I imagine it is similar for xbox also. Number 1 in ps4 charts, and on amazon, that bodes very well.

[baggymiggins] 01/7/2018 10:26

Yes endion. Though I'm not entirely sure what this means for Frontier other than it's good to see them licence out their IP?

[nimbo1] 01/7/2018 09:36

hxxp://www.pushsquare.com/news/2018/04/sony_data_shows_digital_sales_continue_to_grow_on_ps4

For interest it’s why its nice to see jwe at number 1 in physical charts - because digital sales for playstation is now 43% of the market, so physical currently still outstrips digital.

[endion] 01/7/2018 00:49

Good find baggymiggins. And fully funded in one day! Thats amazing.

£17,021 funded by 290 backers so far at an average price of £58 per backer. The tiers range from £20 to £200. The price below £200 is £50, which means, given the current average, that a number of people must have pledged the full £200.

Game is scheduled to be released in nov 2018.

[baggymiggins] 30/6/2018 23:52

An Elite Dangerous card game has appeared on Kickstarter under licence from Frontier Developments. It's already fully funded after one day.

It says "Elite: Dangerous Battle Cards is a two player, expandable card game that allows you to battle entire fleets of ships in the Elite: Dangerous universe."

Interesting.

[endion] 30/6/2018 23:49

It was on LSE, though that site has been terrible recently so I wouldnt be suprised if it was innacurate.

[nimbo1] 30/6/2018 21:36

Now at number 1 across amazon PlayStation - us, Germany and uk - good effort.

[scooper72] 30/6/2018 17:50

Endion - where do you get 162 p/e for KWS ? Stockopedia which is usually quite reliable has it at 39.6 on 12 month rolling. Hargreaves Lansdown which is much less reliable still only has it on 96, so still along way from 162. The thing about keywords is that as they service all the big game producers with work that they want to outsource they are in quite a nice spot benefiting from the growing gaming market but with less risk in terms of whether individual titles are a Big hit or not. Bought my first few fdev a few weeks ago and down about 20 percent. Didn't buy much, but wish I had started buying in when I first started looking at them 6 months ago. My kids don't seem too interested in the JWE, but then they are just a bit obsessed with fortnight

[endion] 30/6/2018 15:17

To be honest, short term i would be happy with a £15-£16 share price until news of jwe unit sales is released.

The p/e ratio to this years earnings could be a thorn, unless unit sales figures can prove that this will be maintained and justified in the coming year. If you look at KWS their p/e ratio is a ludicrous 162.32. This os based mostly on their aquisitions and prospects of future growth. If fdev can show that future earnings will be solid, a higher p/e ratio has a better chance of being maintained.

And you are absolutely right that we should be looking at least a year ahead. A little hard without knowing what the fourth franchise will be, as has been said before on this thread.

And from this year onward i expect one game a year to be the standard. The fourth franchise i expect to be released next q3. Just over a year after jwe.

But we will find out with time. Investing is so much patience. If you've done your research and know where this company is headed then you wont be worried, despite current market sentiment.

[drofdavid] 30/6/2018 06:39

A few thoughts:

1. P/E ratio is going to look very high when 2018 profit figure is used against share price
2. Day-to-day share price does not matter too much to the company unless they are needing to issue more shares for an acquisition (I hope not)
3. We have to be patient with news from the company. We can speculate on JWE sales numbers but should not get carried away.
4. We should not expect RNS's just because some shareholders are upset at a share-price fall
5. If we believe in what the company are doing, we should be looking ahead, at least by 1 year, probably 2 years (or more)
6. The market will be wanting a steady flow of profit from an increasing number of successful games

[nimbo1] 30/6/2018 06:04

There is really nothing to worry about - (of course I understand the annoyance and frustration in 'losing paper profit' or being down on an initial entry) - FDEV in JWE have produced a game of global interest and its selling well. We can only deal with the evidence in front of us.

On amazon.

USA - PS4, No 2. XBOX, No. 3.
Germany - PS4, No 3. XBOX, No. 2.
UK - PS4, No 2, XBOX, No. 2.

Perhaps the market is spooked by the revenue fall (can't believe it myself as this was forecast to happen 12 months ago) but there are many ignorant market participants out there so who knows. If 'profits falling' headlines leads to negative sentiment you can be sure at the interims 'profits rising by 500-1000% + will have a similar reverse effect.

I believe FDEV should have provided their detailed road map for company title release aims and that probably would have lead to a stronger share price as the growth trajectory would be in black and white rather than subjective depending on whether you have faith in them as a business and David Braben as a leader. But it won't matter medium term.

[endion] 30/6/2018 01:10

Putting the telegraph article into context. The previous years revenue was £37.4m, current years revenue is forecast to be £34m. So, whilst obviously not growing (due to no new games released that year) it is hardly a massive fall in revenue. £3.4 million, that's a fall of 9.09%. Profit margins however have decreased, largely due to development costs of Jurassic World Evolution. This is entirely expected by those of us who have been following the company for a while and strikes a few of us I imagine as saying, "well... Duh!" Without meaning to sound immature of course.

JWE looks to increase profits in the region of £20-£40m. Which is 10 to 20 times the profit from the current year. Obviously we need a longer term, visible plan to allow the market to trust this growth can be sustained, but I have trust that Fdev can deliver.

[endion] 29/6/2018 23:54

Vgchartz does sometimes produce contradictory info, but I'll take a look, thanks! I remember a forum where EA had announced unit sales for one of the Sims games at around 5m, whereas vgchartz still only had it circa 2m. This particular avenue may be a dead end.

[ck1111] 29/6/2018 22:44

Endion


hxxp://www.vgchartz.com/

gives physical sales, last update for Railway Empire was Jan 7th 2018 but states release was Jan 30th 2018 ??

0.02m / 0.01m / 0.00m for Xboxone / PS4 / PC

not sure that helps

[discodave4] 29/6/2018 22:25

Thanks endion.Seemed to have gotten way ahead of itself IMO, just didnt expect such a drop, doesn't normally pan out like that for me!.Good luck.DD

[endion] 29/6/2018 22:14

Changing topic slightly but am doing some research and have hit a wall. Does anyone know, or know where to find, unit sales for Railway Empire on consoles? It was a sim/management game released by Kalypso, the makers of the Tropico franchise, and it was released simultainsiouly on PC/PS4/XBOX. It would be interesting to see their sales ratios. On steam spy they have only sold 88,000 untis on pc so their figures will be far lower, however it could provide a little insight.

[mark4231] 29/6/2018 21:16

rar100/douglas fir - you may be right that the trading statement as referenced in the Telegraph article has played its part in the share price fall. However I think the bulls on here (of which I am definitely one) fully expected that statement and it was of completely no surprise (in fact it was a nice surprise, not as bad as expected!). During the last financial year FDEV didn't release any new games so revenue only came from the existing games. Going forward FDEV have a plan to release roughly one game a year and so the spike in revenue from a new game will be present every financial year therefore smoothing things out. Please do pick holes in the bulls opinions though - this thread has been great with different opinions on where FDEV are going, wildy different estimates for units sold and a future share price, plus occasional comments to bring us down to earth.