Frontier Developments Share Discussion Threads

[bamboo2] 29/6/2018 18:54

I know very little, but would be interested to know more, about the practicalities of the Bennbridge short.

Is the notification telling us they have both borrowed and sold into the market, or that they have borrowed stock, ready to sell into the market?

Given the price action over recent days it looks to me like the latter is happening. They are waiting until buyers have done their buying before launching another batch of fresh sells. There seems to have been an increase in selling after 4pm, apparently to try to 'paint the tape' with another lower eod close.

[endion] 29/6/2018 18:54

Well,it would be hard to say conclusively one way or the other if there was something going on in relation to the short position. They only opened it recently and can be held for years. However, if fdev does as well as we all expect it to, this low will probably be as low as it will ever see again. If i was them i would cash out and be happy with those profits. But then you cant account for greed! There is only one disclosed short position, any below 0.5 do not need to be declared, as such their leverage on the share price should be minimal.

I would guess they have taken a look at the financial numbers for the year, concluded like the above article that it is not going to be doing well because of it, and figured £18 was overpriced for that. Unfortunately the market currently agreed with them. But then how many on the market understand anything to do with the gaming sector? Or that fdev have released games on a biannual basis and as such revenue reduces on the years betwe3n, a natural flow that does nothing to hinder its growth. We'll just have to wait for the market to catch up.

[ck1111] 29/6/2018 18:07

Like others here I've been playing a bit of JWE. If you haven't, try and get a go of it.

More than anything else this tells me FDEV will continue to grow. Just as when I played Elite Dangerous and Planet Coaster.

JWE is even more accessible - you can put in 10mins or several hours.

And as Williemanjaro's article touches on, Frontier's games have a huge life - they will be played - and will keep selling - for years :)

[gokarna97] 29/6/2018 18:06

Endion - regarding the share price slide, so you think there is anything going on in the background related to the short position that Bennbridge Ltd took on 30th May when the share price was around £18? They clearly haven't cashed in yet.
More generally, I'm totally convinced regarding FDEV's growth potential and agree with the excellent analysis deon on the thread related to projected sales. I understand why Frontier are holding back news of the new Franchise, but it's a fine balance on timing with share price sensitive information. Anyhow, still in for long haul, would just like a more relaxing week next week!

[largemerlot] 29/6/2018 18:01

Well spotted Williemanjaro.Interesting and very useful.Reading the article I think it’s clear that the move in to third party publishing is imminent as is an acquisition!!
I’d be interested in other’s thoughts but would a move in to third party publishing be positive for the multiple v where we are now?

[endion] 29/6/2018 17:59

Thats what happens when people go on numbers alone and don't look beyond the end of their nose. Fortunately most people in here know better! There has been a cycle of contraction ane expansion in releation to revenue due to the schedule of game releases, this is entirely expected for a companylike this. However that oscilation will get much narrower as time goes on.

[baggymiggins] 29/6/2018 17:53

Barter.vg now estimates 474,365 Steam players of JWE. Both PS4 and XBOX are number 1 and 2 respectively on Amazon physical game pre orders. So combining Steam, digital console downloads and physical games I think 1m units sold is approaching fast.

[milly17] 29/6/2018 17:39

Thanks Williemanjaro

[williemanjaro] 29/6/2018 17:25

Caught this!

[douglas fir] 29/6/2018 17:19

this dated June 12th

Frontier Development sees profit falling; launches new Jurassic World game
Tue 12 Jun 2018 13:58

Video game developer Frontier Development said it expected to post a large fall in annual profit, while launching new game Jurassic World Evolution on Tuesday as planned.

Revenue was expected to be £34m and operating profit around £2m, the company said, without providing comparative figures.

For the previous year, the company posted revenue of £37.4m and an operating profit of £7.8m.

Frontier said the new guidance, while implying lower profit and revenue, was ahead of market expectations.


..may I suggest you try again.

[hastings] 29/6/2018 17:17

Anybody that takes a steer from that piece no doubt knows less about FDEV than the writer.

[philpotts] 29/6/2018 17:13

the share price won't have been helped by this from the telegraph

hxxps://investorshares.telegraph.co.uk/news/FDEV/Frontier-Developments.html-news
the headline leads in with ''frontier developments sees profit falling.''

[endion] 29/6/2018 16:34

It seems as though current price will once again be the launch pad for the next leg up. Throughout the day there were a few more instances of the bid stack being wiped out by a sudden drop to sell at the bid, despite small selling pressure. Not sure why this keeps happening so frequently in the last couple of days. Maybe someone else could shed some light on this?

[ck1111] 29/6/2018 13:12

Also at 1 (deluxe) and 3 in PS4 digital best sellers.

I also found him (but couldn't find about his departure). But I agree shouldn't make a difference.

[mark4231] 29/6/2018 12:59

I had to look up that member of staff, he was a 3D artist so I don't see that being any problem at all.

As well as lack of news right now about the next franchise, plus profit taking, I wonder if it is because the reviews are mixed for JWE. However, although that may be the case, for us investors it is sales numbers that matter and from what we have been able to work out in this thread that varies from completely fine to really great - PUBG has far worse user reviews than JWE but I would't mind its sales figures! Maybe other investors don't carefully watch the Steam Charts!

2.5 weeks after release and JWE is holding up well in the Steam Charts. It has continued to be in the top 2 of full priced games globally until the last couple of days (after PUBG!) and then has only been behind two new big hitter releases that have launched today (The Crew 2 and Crash Bandicoot).

[panic investor] 29/6/2018 12:45

What was the criteria for JWE ? I think it occurred the same way - still think it's Star Trek as you can look after communities etc etc

[endion] 29/6/2018 12:44

They are as good a set of reasons as any staverly and i imagine many ring true for the current drop. All will be set straight when figures are released regardless. Till then Im holding tight and swaying with the breeze.

[staverly] 29/6/2018 12:41

Added this morning. Will add more if price continues to fall. Hard to fathom what has triggered such a fall given the unusual level of transparency that purports to reflect current trading.
The film, whilst hardly edge of the seat, is certainly not a turkey. And more importantly, their game appears to have been well-received. So why has the share price been under so much pressure recently?

After 20 years plying my trade as a full time PI, here’s my best guess :
It doesn’t take much to move a share price at any time, but especially one as illiquid as this in the dog days of summer with the added distraction of a world cup. The only other co-incidental reasons I can muster for such a disproportionate downward move are:
1 Recent WHO inclusion of (video) gaming disorder as a disease.
2 Recent departure of Des Walsh (senior, long standing software engineer).
3 No confirmation of 4th franchaise at E3.
4 Film launch critical reaction was mixed at best.
5 Likelihood of UK government now not reducing corporation tax to 17%
6 Market makers have a vested interest to create volatility.
DYOR

[endion] 29/6/2018 11:35

Interesting how the £1m bought after hours hasnt effected much of anything, yet during the day a £2k sell is enough to lower the price by 5p. Hey ho.

[hpcg] 29/6/2018 09:47

Makw61 - agree with your approach, for profit modelling the only thing of interest is what Frontier is entitled too after all others have taken their cut. I'm fine with the company not announcing the new franchise yet. It should concentrate on doing what is best for the business, there are plenty of ramp fests in the market for those that are addicted to irrelevant news. I do think that has made some difference to the share at this time, but it makes no difference over the medium term.

[travellingtrader] 29/6/2018 09:37

To be fair to Crew 2 the reviews are bad because people who have bought it are being asked for an activation code so haven't been able to play.

The fall is probably due to a combination of factors.
1) People expecting the next franchise to have been announced by now
2) Traders who were in for the runup to the new games launch
3) The general market becoming weaker
The current level is where it broke out from in May and seems to be holding up as support now.
With news on the next franchise along with actual sales data for JWE coming over the next few months there's plenty to look forward to.

[staverly] 29/6/2018 09:34

Was trying to give my reasoning behind recent share price events but ADVFN proved problematic. In a rush, so will post later.

[staverly] 29/6/2018 09:08

Added this morning. Will add more if price continues to fall. Hard to fathom what has triggered such a fall given the unusable

[nimbo1] 29/6/2018 09:03

I got to Isla Penna last night. 3 hours went by in a flash. The game gets more captivating as you go through it and is thoroughly enjoyable in my opinion.

I've been thinking about reviews - 71% is a good rating from 7000 people - thats because there are a load of people out there who love JP Operation Genesis from 15 years ago who were always keen to bash it - and they've been very vocal on the forums, so be it. 7/10 provides a excellent platform for frontier to improve and expand the game going forward. Thankfully the ratings weren't 28%, like for the Crew 2 which released yesterday.

[ck1111] 28/6/2018 22:04

Video of the recent DLC dinosaurs:



Over 1 million views after 5 days!